Monday, November 24, 2008

New Cabinet Appointement, CA-4 Projection

Obama has appointed Timothy Guither as is Sec. of the treasury, Bill Richardson as Sec of Commerce, Tom Daschel as Sec of HHS and is set to appoint Hillary Clinton as Sec. Of state.

The stock market has soared the last two days over the news of Obama's appointment.

We Can Now call California's Fourth District for Tom McClentock (R) this makes the House D 257 to R 176 with 2 outstanding Races (OH-15 and LA-4)

Friday, November 14, 2008

Markets

The Dow lost 338 points (3.82%) today and 449 points (Aprox. 5%) on the week. GM gained 0.6 (2.03) Ford lost 0.10 (5.26%). Google lost 0.66% and Starbucks Starbucks lost 7.52%

Secratary of state short list leaked

there are 4 names on the Obama Sec. of state short list which have been leaked: Hillary Clinton, Tom Daschel, John Kerry and Bill Richardson. Most people are familiar with all four names. I Will Rank them in Likelihood:

1. John Kerry
2. Bill Richardson
3. Tom Daschel
4. Hillary Clinton

Election Update

Don Young is the Projected Victor in Alaska's lone Congressional district. He is under investigation for corruption and was polling 5-12 points back, I guess his victory can be explained by Sarah Palin's name being on the ballot. This makes The House 257 Democrats to 175 Republicans with 3 Races still out CA-4, LA-4 (which is going to a runoff) and OH-15. The GOP Leads in the two non Runoff races. The Democrats saw more voters in the LA-4 Primary. All 3 of these races could go any way.

And Mark Begich has taken an 814 Vote lead from the Incumbent Senator and Convicted felon Ted Stevens. Five Thirty Eight is confident of a Begich Victory because of where the out standing vote comes from so I am Projecting Mark Begich will Defeat Ted Stevens. This makes the Senate 58-40.

Minnesota's Recount is set to begin next week Coleman leads by 206 but a 300+ Vote swing is very reasonable.

In Georgia the first runoff poll was released today which gives Chambliss a 3 point lead.

60 May be a long shot but it's not nearly dead.

Once Minnsesota (and hopefully some other house races) are called I will grade my final call (which was very accurate).

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Rise In Unemployment

200,000 Jobs were lost last month and Unemployment rose .2% to 6.5% it's highest point in the last 14 Years.

President-Elect Obama Plans to create Jobs and revenue. He Plans To pass a stimulus package as soon as he gets into office. this may include a bail out of the 3 big auto makers who's stock has fallen substantially in the last week.

2 Races Called

Virginia's 5th District has been called for the democrat and Washington's 8th has been called for the republican incumbant. This means 4 Races Are still Out LA-4, CA-4, AK-AL and OH-15

The count in the House is now 257 Democrats and 174 Republicans

Friday, November 7, 2008

Dem's Gain aothr House seat

CNN is Projecting that The Democrats have Picked up Maryland's 1st District. this Makes the Count: Dems 256 GOP 173. (Louisiana's 2ed is a safe Dem District)

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Obama's Cabnet

Raham Emanuel Has been Appointed Chief of Staff by President-elect Obama. He has also appointed Robert Gibbs to be his Press Secretary.

Election Results

Barack Obama is the President elect Of the United States winning with 364 Electoral Votes to John McCain's 164. Obama Picked up Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Indiana. His Popular Vote Margin stand at 7 points (53-46). He Broke the Popular Vote Record which Was set in 2004 by Bush (previously Reagan in 1984). His Popular vote Total currently stands at 64.5 Million with 98% in, It Could rise up to 66 Million.

The Senate is still up for grabs. It looks as though the 60 seat Majority is unobtainable but it is not yet impossible. the Senate Currently stands at 57 Democrats 40 Republicans 2 Deadlocked Races (MN and AK) and 1 runoff (GA). The Result in Alaska is not likely to be known until November 21st and Minnesota is not Likely to be known until early December. the Run Off Will be held in Georgia on December 2ed.

The House stands at 255 Democrats 173 Republicans and 7 undecided races in WA-8, CA-4
AK-AL, LA-4, MD-1, VA-5 and OH-15. after this election it is evident that House Polls are far less accurate than Other Polls.

The Democrats won one new Governor's Mansion in Missouri. Beverly Purdue Was elected In North Carolina. In Washington Christine Georgie was able to win re-election Fairly easily. The Governor's Mansions now stand at Democrats 29 Republicans 21.

Airizona (56-44), California(51-49) and Florida (62-38) All passed bans on Gay Marrige. Arizona is interesting because in 2006 a ban on gay Marrige failed. In Califorina Gay Marrige was legal until Tuesday. 3 Law suits have already been Filed against Prop 8. Also In California Prop 4 Failed (52-48), this would have forced Doctors to notify a Minors Parents within 48 hours of an abortion taking place. In Arkansaws Initiative 1 Passed (57-43) which prohibits gay Coupples from adopting Children. South Dekota Refused to put limits on abortion by a vote of 55-45. In Colorado Amenment 48 Passed which states that Life begins at conception. also in Colorado Amendment 46 which would end afirmative action is failing 51-49 but is still too close to call, The Same bill passed in Nebraska (58-42). In Mass. a proposition failed (70-30) which would end state Income tax. Washington Voted to allow Doctor Assisted Souicides by a vote of 59-41. In Michigan Marijana has been Decriminalized by a vote of 63-37. also in Michigan Stem Cell Research passed by a vote of 53-47.

Monday, November 3, 2008

First Results in

Dixville Notch, NH has voted, and the votes have been counted. at this hour Obama leads Obama in New Hampshire and Nationally:

Obama 15 (71%)
McCain 6 (29%)
0% reporting

this is only 21 votes out of an electorate of 130 Million (or roughly .0000008%). it is more symbolic than any thing. they haven't voted Democrat since 1968, but none the less at this hour it's Obama 15-6.

Presidential Final Call

This is my final call, My final Prediction on the 2008 presidential election. I predict that the Barack Obama will be elected president of the united states tomorrow. I predict that the electoral count will be Obama 364 McCain 174 and that the popular vote will be Obama 52% McCain 46% Barr 2%. Here it is by state:

AL McCain by 18
AK McCain by 18
AZ McCain by 3
AR McCain by 11
CA Obama by 22
CO Obama by 8
CT Obama by
DE Obama by 23
DC Obama by 90
FL Obama by 4
GA MccCain by 3
HI Obama by 40
ID McCain by 37
IL Obama by 32
IN McCain by 1
IA Obama by 18
KS McCain by 19
KY McCain by 13
LA McCain by 11
ME Obama by 19
MD Obama by 20
MA Obama by 22
MI Obama by 17
MN Obama by 13
MS McCain by 9
MO Obama by 3
MT McCain by 2
NE McCain by 24
NV Obama by 6
NH Obama by 12
NJ Obama by 17
NM Obama by 12
NY Obama by 32
NC Obama by 3
ND McCain by 1
OH Obama by 6
OK McCain by 30
OR Obama by 18
PA Obama by 9
RI Obama by 34
SC McCain by 10
SD McCain by 8
TN McCain by 16
TX McCain by 12
UT Mcain by 42
VT Obama by 33
VA Obama by 8
WA Obama by 12
WV McCain by 9
WI Obama by 13
WY McCain by 37

election Night Guide

This is my guide and time line on what to watch for tomorrow night

Presidential

- If Georgia is to close to call 45 Minutes after polls close the GOP is in for a long night.

- If Virginia or North Carolina are called for Obama early in the night the election is over

- If Pennsylvania is particularly close John McCain might have a shot.

- Obama can stand to loose Pennsylvania as long as he wins Ohio

- If Obama is down by 3-10 or less points in Missouri before 80% of the vote is in he will take the state

- If Minnesota is unable to be called within 30 minutes of when polls close McCain might have a shot in the state

- If you see a 13+ point margin for Obama in New Hampshire we are in landslide territory

- California, Oregon or Washington will probably put Obama over 270 at 11 EST/ 8 PST

- if McCain is not ahead at 10 EST/ 7 PST He will Loose

- if Obama is loosing the Popular vote by 5% or less before the west closes he will still win it

- Watch For a reverse Bradly effect in the south.

Senate:

- If the Democrats loose MN their Hopes of 60 are dead.

- If the Dem's Pull Kentucky off they will reach 60

- As long as Chambliss does not Reach 50% and they win MN it is going to December 2ed

automatic calls

this is a list of sates for the non observer. These are the states (and their electoral vote count) which we can all just asume are going to go in one Direction. for example: pigs will be flying before a Democrat takes Utah (71% for Bush in 04), and it will be a cold day in hell before a republican takes Washington DC (91% for Kerry in 2004). These are a bit more adjusted to this election Cycle. The count of these is Obama 239 McCain 119


Obama
CA-55
CT-7
DE-3
HI-4
IL-21
IA-7
ME-4
MD-10
MA-12
MI-17
MN-10
NJ-15
NM-5
NY-31
OR-7
RI-4
VT-3
WA-11
WI-10

McCain
AL
AK
AR
ID
KS
KY
LA
MS
NE
OK
SD
TN
TX
UT
WY

MyLiberal Election night prediction

Note: This is not my official prediction, this is a scenario in which Obama over preforms because the polls are in accurate. I will make my final Call later in the day.

if the polls are off I beleive this is what the map will look like. the electoral count would be: Obama 406 McCain 132. the Popular vote would break: Obama 54% McCain 44% Barr 2%

Obama wins:
AZ
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
IL
IN
IA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MO
MT
NV

NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OR
PA
RI
VT
VA
WA
WI

McCain Wins:
AL
AK
AR
ID
KS
KY
LA
MS
NE
OK
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
WV
WY

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Senate Final Call

This is my final prediction on the senate. I will Predict the Presidency tomarrow. If these calls are accurate the senate will have at least 59 Democrats and 40 Republicans with one seat to be decided in a runoff on December 2ed.


AL: Sessions (R) by 32
AK: Begich (D) by 19
AR: Prior (D) by 100 ( unopposed)
CO: Udall (D) by 12
DE: Biden (D) by 40
GA*: Chambliss (R) 47% Martin (D) 45% Buckley (I) 8%
ID: Risch (R) by 21
IL: Durbin (D) by 23
IA: Harkin (D) by 21
KS: Roberts (R) by 24
KY: McConell (R) by 4
LA: Landriue (D) by 13
ME: Collins (R) by 14
MA: Kerry (D) by 19
MI: Levin (D) by 25
MN: Frankin (D) by 3
MS A: Cochran (R) by 20
MS B: Wicker (R) by 9
MT: Bacus (D) by 36
NE: Johanns (R) by 17
NH: Shahhen (D) by 10
NJ: Launtenburg (D) by 19
NM: Udall (D) by 18
NC: Hagan (D) by 6
OK: Inhofe (R) by 14
OR: Merkly (D) by 6
RI: Reed (D) by 61
SC: Graham (R) by 12
SD: Johnson (D) by 29
TN: Alexander (R) by 22
TX: Cornyn (R) by 12
VA: Warner (D) by 31
WV: Rockefeller (D) by 20
WY A: Enzi (R) by 34
WY B: Barosso (R) by 32

*- if no candidate reaches 50%+1 in Georgia the election will be decided on December 2ed in a runoff

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Governors Final Call

I predict that the new Governor count will be: 29 Democrats 21 Republicans. I predict the results as follows:

UT: Huntsman (R) by 60
ND: Hoeven (R) by 47
IN: Daniels (R) by 12
VT: Dougless (R) by 23 Reaching the 50%+1 Majority with Symington (D) in 2ed
MO:Nixon (D) by 17
NC: Purdue (D) by 3
WA: Georgie (D) by 6
MT: Schweitzer (D) by 26
DE: Markle (D) by 33
WV: Manchin (D) by 39
NH: Lynch (D) by 48

Governors Poll check And Ratings

I don't have new numbers or ratings today in any thing else. I am Making my final Call in the governors mansion today:

Strong Dem (27)
MO*: Nixon by 19

Lean Dem (29)
WA*: Georgie by 6
NC*: Purdue by 4

Tilt Dem (29)
None

Tilt GOP (21)
none

Lean GOP (21)
None

Strong GOP (21)
IN*: Daniels by 16


Friday, October 31, 2008

House Final Call

I am Making my final call in the House. I am putting out a list of districts that I expect to switch (AKA Pick Up's for those of you who don't know political Vocab). I expect the New House to have 264 Democrats and 171 Republicans

Democratic Pick Ups
AK-AL
AZ-1
FL-8
FL-21
FL-24
IL-10
IL-11
MI-7
MI-9
NJ-3
NJ-7
NM-1
NM-2
NY-13
NY-25
NY-29
NC-8
OH-1
OH-15
OH-16
VA-11
NV-3
CO-4
ID-1
CA-4
CA-46
MN-3
MN-6
PA-3
CT-4
WA-8

Republican Pickups
PA-11
TX-22
FL-16

Final Calls- 1 1/2 Senate 2 President

In the Senate: I am calling North Carolina for the Democrat Kay Hagan. this gives the Democrats a 58-39 Advantage. I am also Calling Georgia in a sense. If no candidate reaches 50% there will b a run off on December 2ed. No Candidate will reach 50%

I am Calling North Carolina and Florida for Obama. This put's the Count at Obama 353- McCain 132

The Following Races have yet to be Called:
Governors: NC
Senate: MN, KY, GA*
President: AZ, ND, MT, IN, MO, GA

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

Strong Obama (311)
PA*: Obama by 11
NH*: Obama by 12
WI*: Obama by 13
MN*: Obama by 16
IA*: Obama by 15
NM*: Obama by 15
VA*: Obama by 8
OH*: Obama by 7
CO*: Obama by 8
NV*: Obama by 7

Lean Obama (353)
NC*: Obama by 4
FL*: Obama by 4

Tilt Obama (375)
IN: Obama by 0.3
MO: Obama by 0.6

Tilt McCain (163)
ND: McCain by 0.2
MT: McCain by 2.5
GA: McCain by 1.5
AZ: McCain by 1.0

Lean McCain (132)
None

Strong McCain (132)
MS*: McCain by 10
SD*: McCain by 8
SC*: McCain by 9
WV*: McCain by 9

Senate Poll check And Ratings

Strong Democrat (57)
LA*: Landriue by 16
NJ*: Launtenburg by 15
VA*: Warner by 28
NM*: Udall by 18
AK*: Begich by 16
CO*: Udall by 13
NH*: Shaheen by 11
NC*: Hagan by 9

Lean Dem (58)
OR*: Merkly by 7

Tilt Dem (59)
MN: Frankin by 2.3

Special rating: Likely Runoff (1)
GA#: Chambliss by 1.3 or 47-46-6

Tilt GOP (40)
KY: McConel by 2.7

Lean GOP (39)
None

Strong GOP (39)
TX*: Cornyn by 11
MS*: Wicker by 11
ME*: Collins by 13

*- Already called
#- Georgia is called such that no candidate will reach 50% and it will thus go to a runoff on December 2ed

New Governors poll check and Ratings

Missouri*- this one has been over for a while. Nixon (D) leads by 17 points. Strong Dem

Indiana*- though people thought this might be competitive for a while it isn't Daniels leads by 16 Strong GOP

Washington*- Though this one tightened after the GOP Convention it looks like the Democrats are going to hold on. Georgie (D) leads by 5.6 Lean Democrat

North Carolina- Purdue Leads by 2.3. I'm not ready to call this one yet but it leans in th democrats Direction. Lean Democrat

*- Already Called

Called: D 28 GOP 21
Strong: D 27 GOP 21
Lean: D 29 GOP 21
Tilt: D 29 GOP 21

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Final Calls

In the Presidential Race I have 2 calls; one favoring each candidate. I am calling Nevada For Obama and West Virginia for McCain this brings the electoral count to Obama 338 McCain 142

In the senate I have 3 calls. I am Calling Oregon for Merkly (D), Alaska for Begich (D) and Mississippi for Wicker (R) this brings the senate to 57 Democrats and 39 Republicans.

I am calling Washington's Governors Race for Chrisine Georgie but will keep you updated on it. that makes the count Democrats 28 Republicans 21.

I am changing my popular vote prediction to Obama 53% McCain 46% Barr 1%

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

Strong Obama (306)
PA*: Obama by 11
WI*: Obama by 12
MN*: Obama by 16
NH*: Obama by 19
IA*: Obama by 12
NM*: Obama by 11
VA*: Obama by 9
CO*: Obama by 9
OH*: Obama by 8

Lean Obama (338)
NV*: Obama by 7

FL: Obama by 4

Tilt Obama (378)
IN: Obama by 3.0
NC: Obama by 2.4
ND: Obama by 1.7
MO: Obama by 0.7

Tilt McCain (160)
MT: McCain by 0.3
GA: McCain by 1.7

Lean McCain (142)
AZ: McCain by 4

Strong McCain (132)
WV*: McCain by 8
MS*: McCain by 10
SD*: McCain by 8
AR*: McCain by 11

Senate Poll check And Ratings

Strong Democrat (56)
NJ*: Launtenburg by 19
LA*: Landriue by 16
VA*: Warner by 31
NM*: Udall by 19
CO*: Udall by 11
NH*: Shaheen by 10
AK*: Begich by 10

Lean Democrat (58)
OR*: Merkly by 7
NC: Hagan by 3

Tilt Democrat (59)
MN: Frankin by 2.0

Special Rating: Likely Runoff (1)
GA: Chamblis by 1.5 or 45-44


Tilt GOP (40)
KY: McConnell by 2.7


Lean GOP (39)
None

Strong GOP (39)
MS*: Wicker By 12
TX*: Cornyn by 15
ME*: Collins by 15
*- Already called

Governors Poll check And Ratings

Washington: Georgie probably leads by about 7. Lean Democrat

North Carolina: Purdue leads by about 2.25. She is still the favorite Lean Democrat

Called: 28 D 21 R
Strong: 27 D 21 R
Lean: 29 D 21R
Tilt 29 D 21 R

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Goals for this blog

After the 2008 election I intend to achieve 4 goals for this blog

1) to cover capitol hill

2) to have the best and most accurate coverage of the 2010 midterms

3) to poll 2010 races through my other blog politicalopinionpolling.blogspot.com

4) to become as well respected and read as CQ Politics, the Cook political Report, Politico and the Rothenburg political Report

Final Calls and a retraction

In the Presidential race I have 2 calls For Barack Obama. I am calling Colorado and Ohio for Obama and I have yet another retraction from McCain: His home state of Arizona. This puts the safe Electoral count at: Obama 306 McCain 127

Note: Next time I release ratings I will start to call some races in the lean catogory. this is not because these have solidified for the candidate I have called them for, it is so I can consentrate on closer races so my final calls will be as accurate as possible.

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

Safe/ Strong Obama (306)
PA: Obama by 11*
NH: Obama by 15*
MN: Obama by 15*
IA: Obama by 13*
NM:Obama by 10*
VA: Obama by 8*
OH: Obama by 8
CO: Obama by 9

Lean Obama (364)
NV: Obama by 3
NC: Obama by 3
IN: Obama by 5
FL: Obama by 4

Tilt Obama (378)
MO: Obama by 1.8
ND: Obama by 1.7

Tilt McCain (160)
MT: TIED
GA: McCain by 2.3

Lean McCain (142)
WV: McCain by 7
AZ: McCain by 6

Safe McCain (127)
AR: McCain by 11*
SD: McCain by 9*

*- Already Called (I thew in some states that I've called that each party seems to think they have a shot at)

Senate Poll check And Ratings

Safe/ Strong Democrat (55)
LA: Landriue By 15*
NH: Shaheen by 9*
VA: Warner by 27*
NM: Udall By 16*
CO: Udall by 11*

Lean Democrat (58)
OR: Merkly by 4
NC: Hagan by 4
MN: Frankin by 5

Tilt Democrat (59)
AK: Begich By 1.5

Special Rating: Lean Runoff (1)
GA: Chambliss by 1.3 or 45-44

Tilt GOP (40)
KY: McConell by 2.7
MS: Wicker by 1.2

Lean GOP (38)
None

Safe/ Strong GOP (38)
All other GOP seats

*- already called


Governors Ratings

Washington: Georgie (D) has a 5 point lead, She is undoubtedly the leader and has a strong advantage. Lean Democrat

North Carolina: Purdeue (D) has a three point lead and things are starting to come arround in her direction. Lean Democrat

safe/ Strong: D 27 R 21
Lean: D 29 R 21
Tilt: D 29 R 21

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Major Final Calls This week and change in Popular vote prediction

In the Senate I am calling Texas for Cornyn (R) and New Hampshire for Shaheen (D) which Brings the total to Dem's 55 GOP 38

I am Officially calling the presidency for Barack Obama. I am calling Virginia in his favor giving him a total of 277 Safe electors putting him over the Magic number of 270 (269 for him)

In addition to this I am Changing my popular vote prediction to Obama 54% McCain 45% Barr 1%.

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

Safe/ Strong Obama (297)
IA: Already Called
NM: Already Called
VA: Obama by 8
OH: Obama by 7

Lean Obama (364)
CO: Obama by 5
NV: Obama by 3
FL: Obama by 4
NC: Obama by 3
MO: Obama by 3

Tilt Obama (378)
IN: Obama by 2.0
ND: Obama by 1.7

Tilt McCain (160)
MT: Tied



Lean McCain (157)
GA: McCain by 5
WV: McCain by 7

Strong/ Safe McCain (137)
All Other Red states

Senate Poll check And Ratings

Safe/ Strong Democrat (55)
VA: Already Called
NM: Already Called
CO: Already called
NH: Shaheen by 8

Lean Democrat (58)
MN: Frankin by 4
OR: Merkly by 6
NC: Hagan by 3

Tilt Democrat (59)
AK: Belesige by 1.5

Special Rating: Lean Run off* (1)
GA: Chambliss by 1.8 or 46-44

Tilt GOP (40)
MS: Wicker by 1.3
KY: McConnell by 2.3

Lean GOP (38)
None

Safe/ Strong GOP (38)
TX: Cornyn by 15

*- in Georgia if no candidate reaches 50%+1 the race goes to a runoff I see Georgia as leaning in that direction.

Governors- Poll Check and Ratings

Washington: Georgie has definately retaken the lead. My Average shows her up by 4. Lean Democrat

North Carolina: Purdue has a lead of about 2.25 points. Lean Democrat

these Numbers are pretty stable.

Safe/Strong: D 27 R 21
Lean: D 29 R 21
Tilt: D 29 R 21

Monday, October 20, 2008

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

Safe/Strong Obama (277)
IA: Already Called
NM: Already Called
VA: Obama by 8

Lean Obama (344)
CO: Obama by 6
NC: Obama by 4
NV: Obama by 4
MO: Obama by 3
FL: Obama by 3

Tilt Obama (367)
OH: Obama by 3.1
ND: Obama by 1.7

Tilt McCain (171)
IN: McCain by 3.8

Lean McCain(160)
MT: McCain by 4
GA: McCain by 6
WV: McCain by 7

Safe McCain (137)
All Other red states

Senate Poll check And Ratings

Safe/ Strong Dem (55)
VA: Already Called
NM: Already Called
CO: Already called
NH: Shaheen by 9

Lean Dem (57)
NC: Hagan by 6
OR: Merkly by 5

Tilt Dem (59)
AK: Belsige by 2.2
MN: Franken by 2.0

Tilt GOP(41)
MS: Wicker by 1.0
GA: Chambliss by 2.3
KY: McConell by 2.7

Lean GOP (38)
TX: Cornyn by 7

Safe GOP (37)

Governors- Rating's and poll check

North Carolina: Purdue (D) appears to be back in the lead by about 4. Thus I am Moving this one back into the Lean Democrat Category

Washington: This one is pretty much right where it was at three days ago. It remains Lean Democrat

And the counts Are:
Safe/ Strong: D 27 R 21
Lean: D 29 R 21
Tilt: D 29 R 21

Friday, October 17, 2008

3 Fianl Calls 1 Retraction

Senate: I am Calling Colorado for Udall (D) giving democrats a 54-37 win with 9 states still out.

Presidential Minnesota and New mexico are both Being called for Obama giving him 264 Safe EV's I amRetracting North Dekota From McCain bringing him down to 137

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

McCain is in Free Fall!! I am retracting yet another state from him in my final call. this is the 4th state I have been forced to retract. In all of my other final calls I have retracted only 1. Obama should get a few states in my final calls today but let's look at the polls and my Ratings:

Safe/ Strong Obama:
MN: Obama by 9

IA: Already called
NM: Obama by 10
VA: Obama by 8

Lean Obama (349)
CO: Obama by 6
OH: Obama by 5
NV: Obama by 4
FL: Obama by 5
MO: Obama by 4

Tossup/ Tilt Obama(367)
NC: Obama by 2.3
ND: Obama by 1.6

Tossup/ Tilt McCain (171)
WV: McCain by 0.6
IN: McCain by 3.8

Lean McCain (155)
GA: McCain by 7
MT: McCain by 7

Strong/ Safe (137)
All other red states

Senate Poll check And Ratings

There are 10 (soon to be 9) out standing Races, all of them are held by republicans. From now on I will rate the races every 3 days until I make my final call Probably 2 days before the election. Also all tossups will have a decimal.
Safe/ Strong Dem (55)
VA: Already Called
NM: Already Called
CO: Udall By 11
NH: Shaheen by 9

Lean Dem (59)
MN:Frankan by 5
OR: Merkly by 4
NC: Hagan By 4
AK: Belsige By 3

Tossup/ Tilt Dem (59)
None

Tossup/ Tilt GOP (41)
GA: Chambliss by 1.67
MS: Wicker by 1.5

Lean GOP (39)
KY: McConnell by 5
TX: Cornyn by 6

Safe GOP (37)


What to watch for:
Momentum is heavy on Martins side in the Georgia senate Race. this race may switch. Wicker will probably stay in a dead heat until election day. also Minnesota is fluid, Frankin may gain another 5-6 points but don't count out a Coleman comeback.

Governors Poll check And Ratings

I will start to do these as well as ratings on the Senate and Presidency once every three days unless the two outstanding races are Called (they won't be)

Washington: It is now doubtless that Christine Georgie has Climbed back into the lead. The questions are how big is that lead and will it last? My average says it is about 1.3 Points. I doubt Rossi will come back, But you never know. Lean Democrat

North Carolina: No one knows what is going on here. the last few polls don't have a consistent result but Purdue (D) Seems to be winning in more of them. My Average shows her up by 1.5. Tossup/ Tilt Democrat

Strong/ Safe: D 27 R 21
Lean: D 28 R 21
Tilt: D 29 R21

Let's Talk House

I have stopped Rating the house because it gets too confusing. How ever I will make a final call by releasing a list of pickups about 2-3 days before the election. I also want to highlight a few key districts.

Definite pickups
Right now The Democrats have about 9 (IL-11, AZ-1, AK-AL, NY-13, NY-25, VA-11, OH-16, NM-1 and FL-24) definite pickups the GOP only has 2(FL-16 And TX-22). expect these to be on the list unless something drastic happens. If these and only these districts change the house would be 243-192

Other Likely Pickups and Opportunities
The GOP only has 1 pickup opportunity other than the above-mentioned districts; That would be PA-11 which they probably will overtake. their losses will by far out weigh their gains. The Democrats have much more than that: WA-8 and CT-4 have added them selves to the list of districts where democrats are leading. CO-4 ,NC-8, NY-29 and OH-15 are all close to cementing a spot on the list above. If the election were today my guess would be the democrats hold 264-171

Missed GOP Opportunity
Survey USA has put out a poll which has The Democrat well ahead in CA-11. Don't expect it to be on the list. The GOP will not end with more than 185 seats.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Final Call's this week

Presidential:
I am retracting Georgia from McCain giving him a total of 140 Safe Electors and I am calling Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire for Obama giving him a total of 249.
My popular Vote prediction is now: Obama 53% McCain 45% Barr 2%

New Presidential Ratings and Poll Check

Strong/ Safe Obama (277)
PA: Obama by 13
NH: Obama by 10
WI: Obama by 10
NM: Obama by 10
IA:(already Called) Obama by 12
VA: Obama by 10
MN: Obama by 10

Lean Obama (338):
CO: Obama by 6
OH: Obama by 4
NV: Obama by 4
FL: Obama by 5


Tilt Obama(364):
NC: Obama by 3
MO: Obama by 2

Tilt McCain (174)
WV: McCain by 2
IN: McCain by 2

Lean McCain (158)
GA: McCain by 5
MT: McCain by 7


Strong McCain (140)
All Other Red States

New Senate Poll check and Ratings

These will be weekly until the last two weeks when they will come out every 3 days

Safe/ Strong Dem (54):
VA: Already Called
NM: Already Called
NH: Shaheen by 9

Lean Dem (58)
CO: Udall by 6
AK: Belsige by 4
NC: Hagan by 7
MN: Frankan by 5

Tilt Dem (59)
OR: Merlky by 2

Tilt GOP (41)
GA: Chambliss by 1
MS: Wicker by 2

Lean GOP (39)
KY: McConell by 4
TX: Cornyn by 7

Safe/ Strong (37)

Governors- Rating's and poll check

as promised here are my new and for the time being, Weekly Governors ratings and poll check:

Washington: Christine Georgie seems to have taken back her lead. it appears to be 2 points. Expect it to grow but this one is staying competitive Leans Democrat

North Carolina: this is a dead heat. dead even tie and it will sta very close till the end. I'm giving it to Purdue because she has momentum on her side. Tossup/ Tilts Democrat

this makes it:
Safe
Dem 27
GOP 21

Lean:
Dem 28
GOP 21

Tilt
Dem 29
GOP 21

New House Ratings

as I promised these are my last ratings on the house before my final Call. I will release a list of pick ups a few days before the election. So here they are:

Strong Dem (223):
NY-25
NY-13
IL-11
VA-11
AZ-1
AK-AL
AZ-8
IN-9

Lean Dem (240)
AL-5
GA-8
GA-12
IL-14
KS-2
KY-3
LA-6
MS-1
NC-11
NH-1
FL-16
WI-8
TX-23
OR-5
NY-19
NY-20
CO-7
NV-3
NM-1
NY-29
NC-8
OH-16
OH-15


Tossup/ Tilt Dem (261)
CA-11
AZ-3
PA-3
CA-4
IL-10
FL-8
FL-21
KY-2
MI-7
MI-9
MN-3
NJ-3
NJ-7
NM-2
OH-1

Tilt GOP (174)
PA-11
AL-2
CT-4
WA-8
FL-24
LA-4
MD-1
NY-26

Lean GOP (166)
TX-22
CA-46
FL-13
ID-1
IA-4
MO-6
MO-9
NE-2
NV-2
NJ-5
OH-2
OH-5
OH-7
TN-7
TX-7
TX-10
TX-32

Strong GOP (149)
VA-2
IL-6

Republican Party in Free fall, Early Voting

Today is the last day that I will Rate all four Races at the same time. These will be my last ratings on the House before my Final Call. I would like to point out one thing while I do this: THE GOP IS IN FREE FALL.

Stuart Rothenburg is warning of a "GOP Blood Bath" and Charlie Cook have moved his Predictions in the house 10 seats to the left. Chris Cilliza now thinks that the democrats are within striking distance of 60 seats in the senate. Polls are starting to show hints of an Obama land slide and Similar sensations in the senate and the house. Further More early voting (Particularly in Georgia) shows that the electorate has changed. I would not rule out an Obama 18-20 point win.

Let's Talk about early Voting: In Georgia 39% of the early voting electorate was black. If that were to stay consistant Obama would only need 12-19% of the White vote to take the state. I expect Obama to take 25-40% of the white vote in the south. In Ohio 30,000 People have took Part in Early Voting, 5,000 of those Registered at their polling place which means at least 18% are first time voters (Probably closer to 25%) as opposed to just 11% in 2004. If these stay consistant Obama could be in for a very good election night.

I have also Decided that I will have two final predictions. The first one: the official one (my Final Call) will be conservative and assume that the electorate has not changed much since 2004, The other will be a liberal estimate and assume that the electorate has Changed. Think of the second one as a back up.

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Changes in My Prediction

I am changing my popular Vote Prediction to Obama 53% McCain 46% Barr 1%

Final calls this week

In the Senate:
I am calling Louisiana for Mary Landriue by a margin of 58-42. I probably left this one out standing to long. this makes the senate: Democrats 53 GOP 37

In the Presidential Race:
I am feeling a little bit nervous about my call for maine but I won't retract it until it gets really close. McCain is Pulling out of Michigan so I will call it for Obama. He's up by 11 in Washington and that state has been with him trough the race so I will call that for him as well. He Leads by 12 in Iowa so that will also go into the Obama- Biden list giving them a total of 214 Safe Electors. McCain leads by 12 in North Dekota so that will be called for him giving him 155.

Presidential: Poll Check and Ratings

Safe/Strong Obama(254):
PA: Obama by 11
MI: Obama by 8
WI: Obama by 7
NH: Obama by 11

NM: Obama by 9
IA: Obama by 12


Lean Obama (333)
MN: Obama by 5
CO: Obama by 5
VA: Obama by 4
OH: Obama by 4
FL: Obama by 5



Tossup/Tilt Obama(353)
NC: Obama by 1.5
NV: Obama by 3


Tossup/ Tilt McCain (185):
MO: McCain by 0.6
IN: McCain by 2

Lean McCain (163):
WV: McCain by 6


Strong/ Safe McCain (157):

MT: McCain by 11

ND: McCain by 12

Senate: Ratings and Poll Check

Today I am rating Gov's, the senate and the presidency. I will only rate the house one more time before I put out a list of pickups shortly before election night. Here are my new Ratings:



Safe/Strong Dem (53):
LA: Landruie by 15
VA: Already Called
NM: Already Called


Lean Dem (57):
AK: Belsige by 5
CO: Udall By 6
NH: Shaheen by 7
NC: Hagan by 4



Tossup/Tilt Dem(59):
OR: Merlky By 2
MN: Franken by 0.3



Tossup Tilt GOP(41):
MS: Wicker by 2
GA: Chambliss by 2

Lean GOP (39):
KY: McConel by 4
TX: Cornyn by 7

Safe GOP (37):
All other GOP held seats

Governors-Poll Check and Ratings

I only have 2 races left where I have not called the victor So here are the ratings for those two. (Note: Missouri has been predicted as a pick up)

North Carolina: Since the GOP convention this race has been extremely close. there are polls going in both directions and the average shows McCroy (R) leading by 3. This is a tossup Tilting Republican at the moment

Washington: This race has tightened up a bit but georgie still leads by 1.3% Tossup Tilt Democrat

Safe: Dem 27 GOP 21
Lean: Dem 27 GOP 21
Tilt: Dem 28 GOP 22

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Two New Final Calls and a Retraction

Governors:
I am calling Delaware in favor of the Democrat at a 68-32 Margin because the first poll of this open race was released.
That makes it : Dem's 27 GOP 21

Senate: I am now calling Maine in Favor of Republican susan Collins because of a poll which has her 16 points ahead. the Margin is Collins 58- Allen 42.

I am retracting my previous call for Mitch McConell because of new polling info which shows the race within 2-3 points
they cancel eachother out.

New Presidential Ratings, final calls and poll check

Strong Obama (229)
MI: Obama by 7
WI: Obama by 7
OR: Obama by 11
IA: Obama by 9
NM: Obama by 8

Lean Obama (182)
MN: Obama by 5
CO: Obama by 7
PA: Obama by 6
VA: Obama by 5

tossup/ tilt Obama (326)
NH: Obama by 1
OH: Obama by 0.6
NV: Obama by 0.8
NC: Obama by 0.3

Tossup/ Tilt McCain (212)
FL: McCain by 0.4
IN: McCain by 0.7
MO: McCain By 2

Lean McCain (163)
WV: McCain by 6

Strong McCain (158)
MT: McCain by 11
ND: McCain by 13


New Final Calls for the presidential Race
For Obama we are now calling Hawaii, Oregon and Newjersey for Obama giving him a total of 179 safe electoral votes

For McCain I am Calling South Dekota, South Carolina and Louisiana giving him a total of 152 Safe Votes

Thursday, September 18, 2008

New Presidential Ratings and Poll Check

Here are My new Ratings
Safe/Strong
Obama 202
McCain 157

Lean
Obama 273
McCain 198



And Here it is without tossups:
Obama 306
McCain 232

I Told you I would do these weekly but some big polls have come out today here are my poll checks and Ratings:
Strong Obama (202)
IA: Obama +10
NM: Obama +7

Lean Obama (273)
MN: Obama +2

WI: Obama +3

OR: Obama+10

PA: Obama +3

NH: Obama +6

CO: Obama +6

Tilt Obama (306)

OH: Obama +1

VA: Obama +1



Tilt McCain (232)
IN: McCain +1

NV: McCain +1
NC: McCain+1
MT: McCain +2


Lean McCain (198)
FL: McCain +3

MO: McCain +5
ND: McCain +6

Strong McCain
(157)

All other Bush '04 states


Key things To watch for:
1) McCain is capping off in the rust belt states: expect Obama in the next week to 10 days to expand his leads in WI, PA, MN,MI and OH
2) Obama is closing in on making CO a strong state.
3) McCain could be reclaiming the lead in VA soon, Don't hold me to that, VA will be a tossup no matter what.
4) Ignore polls finished before Tuesday.
5) FL and IN will probably flirt between leaning McCain and Being a tossup till election day.

Senate Poll check And Ratings


In the Senate though I still have 11 Races out only 6 appear to be somewhat competitive.
Here is My Poll Check on those six

CO: Udall (D) +6
AK: Belsige (D) +5
NC: Hagan (D) +1
MN: Coleman (R) +1
OR: Smith (R) +1
MS: Wicker (R) +3

Here are my Ratings of those 11 that are still out and pick ups :

Sade Dem (52):
VA
NM

Strong Dem (54):
NH

LA

Lean Dem (56):
AK
CO

Tossup/ Tilt Dem (57)
NC

Tossup/ Tilt GOP(43):
OR
MN
MS

Lean GOP (40):
None

Strong GOP (37):

GA
TX
ME

Races to watch:
Minnesota: The Convention has Coleman about a one point lead. Will it hold?
North Carolina: this race is extremely fluid, Kay Hagan holds about a one point lead. Liz Dole looked like she had lucked out a few months ago but that turned out not to be the case. The Democrats have united behind Hagan and this race will be close down to the wire.

Presidential Final Calls: Collectively

The Final Calls on the Presidency were getting tedious so I am doing the Rest of what I have right now here:

Obama Will Win DC,DE,MD,CT,RI, MA,VT,NY and ME as I have already called in addition to CA and IL Giving him an Safe Total of 153 Electoral Votes.

McCain Will win UT,WY,ID and Georgia as I have already called inn addition to KS, OK, NE, AL,TN,KY,AR,AK, WV and TX Giving him a total of 121 Safe Electoral Votes.

Senate election-Final Call- New Mexico- Key Race

Polls:
D) Udall 56%
R) Parce 41%

Dominici (R) Approval: 40%

2002 Results Dominici 65-35

X-Factors
1) Had Dominici Ran this would have been interesting, But he didn't

Final Call
Udall 58%
Parce 42%

Senate:
Dem 53
GOP 37

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

New Presidential Ratings and Poll Check

the convention dust ha settled and obama now has a lead I have new ratings and will polls, I have narrowed this down to a few states:
IA: Obama +12
CO: Obama +3
NM:Obama +7

PA: Obama +4
NH: Obama +5
MN: Obama +3
MI: Obama +3
WI: Obama +4
NC: McCain +1
VA: Obama +2

OH: TIED
NV: McCain +1

IN: McCain +4
FL: McCain +2

MO: McCain+5
MT: McCain +6
ND McCain +6


I will Now start Doing Maps weekly. Now all Blue States unless listed are Implied tward Obama and all Red states tward McCain.

Strong/ Safe Obama (195):
IA
NM
Lean Obama (273):
OR
MN
WI
MI
CO


Tossup Tilt Obama (286):

VA

Pure Tossup (20):
OH

Tossup Tilt McCain (232):

NC
NV
FL

Lean McCain (185) :
MO
IN
ND

MT

Safe/ Strong McCain (157):

I am also Updating My Popular Vote Prediction to Obama 50% McCain 47% Barr 3% Nader <>

Results of the first ever Lindsay Politics Poll

I have Conducted a poll of 360 people and weighted it to match the demographics of the nation. It is very scientific. Here are the Results:

Obama 44%
McCain 39%
Barr 2%
Nader 1%
Undecided 14%
+/- 5.17%

That is all that I will disclose from this poll. I am planning on conducting two more one at the beginning of October, and the other in either late October, to early November

Monday, September 15, 2008

Presidential- Final Call- Georgia: Key Race

Polls
McCain 56%
Obama 38%

2004: Bush 58-41

Final Call:
McCain 53% (15)
Obama 40%
Barr 6%
Nader 1%

Electoral Count:
Obama 77
McCain 27

Presidential- Final Call- Maryland

Polls:
Obama 52%
McCain 38%

2004: Kerry 56%-43%

Final Call
Obama 56% (10)
McCain 42%
Barr 1%
Nader 1%

Electoral Count
Obama 77
McCain 12

Presidential-Final Call- Delaware

Polls
Obama 55%
Mccain 43%

2004: Kerry 53-46

X-factors: this is Biden's Home State

Final Call
Obama 57% (3 EV's)
McCain 43%

Electoral Count:
Obama 67
McCain 12

Presidential- Maine Final Call

Polls
Obama 52%
McCain 38%

2004: Kerry 53-45

Final Call:
Obama 55% (4 EV's)
McCain 43%
Barr 2%

Electoral Count:
Obama 64
McCain 12

Presidential- Final Call- New York

Polls
Obama 55%
McCain 34%

2004: Kerry 58-41

Final Call
Obama 59% (31 EV's)
McCain 39%
Barr 2%

Electoral Count
Obama 60
Mccain 12

Presidential- Final Call- Conn.

Polls:
Obama 51%
McCain 38%

Obama Peak (6/30):
Obama 57-35

Mccain Peak (5/29):
Obama 47-44

2004:Kerry 54-44

Final Call:
Obama 56% (7 EV's)
McCain 43%
Barr 1%

Electoral Count
Obama 29
McCain 12

Presidential election- Mass. Final Call

Polls
Obama 54%
McCain 38%

2004: Kerry 62-37

Final Call:
Obama 60% (12 EV's)
McCain 37%
Barr 2%
Nader 1%

Electoral Count:
Obama 24
McCain 12

Presidential- Final Call- Idaho

Polls:
McCain 68%
Obama 29%

2004: Bush 69%-30%

Final Call:
McCain 69% (4 Electoral Votes)
Obama 31%

Electoral Count
McCain 12
Obama 10

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Democrats Officially Predicted to Win more Governors

With Missouri and Indiana Now in the Books The democrats Have Clenched The Senate and the Governors Races. There are Three Out Standing Races

3. Delaware: Still waiting on Polls , Should be called when They Come. Strong Democrat

2. Washington: it's about tied right now once the RNC bounce wears off Georgie Should Have the Advantege. Lean Democrat

1. North Carolina: Right Now it's About a 3 point disadvantage for Purdue. If you figure in the Obama changed electorate and the Waring off of the RNC bounce It should be close to a 1 point advantage for her, Little Room for Error. Tossup/ Tilt Democrat

So the Counts Are:

Safe
X-Dems 26
GOP 21

Strong
Dems 27
GOP 21

Lean
Dems 28
GOP 21

Tilt
Dems 29
GOP 21

Governor- Final Call- Indiana- Key Race

Polls
R) Daniels 53%
D) Long 35%

Daniels Peak (4/29):
Daniels By 19

Long Peak(6/10):
Tie

Daniels Approval: 45%

Final Call:
Daniels 55%
Long 45%

Governors
X-Dem 26
GOP 21

Governor- Final Call-Misouri- Key Race

Currant Polls:
D) Nixon 54%
R) Hurshoff 39%

Nixon Peak (6/3):
Nixon 54-34

Hurshoff Peak (8/7):
Nixon 53-42

Blunt Approval: 36%

X- Factors:
1)If blunt were Running He'd loose
2) Weaker GOP Candidate won in Primary

Final Call
Nixon 56%
Hurshoff 44%

Governors
X-Democrats 26
Republicans 20

Democrats Officially Predicted Win Senate, Senate No-Brainers Over

After The Senate No-brainer Final Calls ( and Two Others in New Jersey and Kentucky), The Democrats Have Clinched By My Prediction, and We now have 12 Races out.

12. New Mexico: a popular Politicians Son is running for the open seat and has consistently been up by 20-30 Why Haven't I called it? Some Recent Rassmussen's Have the Race within 10, As soon as someone Polls it back to a 10+ point lead I will Immediately Call it. Strong Democrat

11. Texas: Some People saw this race as a slim Democratic Opportunity, But after the GOP Convention Texas is looking More Red. This one Like New Mexico Will Probably be called at the next poll. Strong Republican

10. New Hampshire: This Is looking very Bad for John Sununu. He is down By 10 Points and has been since this race started, He needs to get competitive soon or it's over. Strong Democrat

9. Maine: Collins is Extremely popular and up by 21. Experts think it is going to give but I think not. She Seems as likely as ever to be re-elected Strong Republican

8. Louisiana: Landriue is up by 17 and I don't see that falling. This one will Probably be called at the next poll. Strong Democrat

7.Georgia: Chambliss is up by 8 points but this could begin to swing in Martins Favor, It dosent seen Likely at this point though. My Guess is that it will dance between being safe and Being Competitive. Strong Republican

6. Colorado: since this Seat Has Opened it has been competitive Right now it's Udall By about six (maybe Stronger), Don't expect a call on this any time soon, but Right Now Udall (D) is the Favorate. Lean Democrat

5. Alaska: with Ted Stevens Indictment every thing seemed to be looking great for Belsige (Democrat) but since McCain Picked Palin His Lead Has Shrunk (20-25 to 2-5). Stvens Jump Will Blow Over but it Might take some time.Lean Democrat

4. Misssissippi Class I: Since the resignation of trent Lott This Race has been one of the Most Competitve Right Now his sucsesssor Wicker has about a 5 Point lead but it's in heavy flux Tossup/ Tilt GOP

3. Minnesota: Franken Leads by 1 But that was a Pre-RNC Poll, Right Now Coleman has the Advantege but expect this to be a Race to the Finish. Tossup/ Tilt GOP

2.Oregan: Right Now Merlky Leads Modderate GOP incumbant Gordon smith By about 1. Gordon smith is Liked By Democrats and Tying himself To Obama, But Chafee Lost in '06 Tossup/ Tilt Dem

1. North Carolina: Do me a favor and Ignore the Survey USA and Research 2000 Polls. A side from those there have been two polls since the RNC 1 Democrat and 1 Republican: The GOP Puts Dole Up By 2 The Democrats Put Hagan Up by 1. In short this Race is Tied. If Obama helps Blacks Come out it will really help Hagan in this dead heat. Tossup/ Tilt Dem

Here are the New Numbers

Safe (already called)
Dems 51
GOP 37

Strong
Dems 54
GOP 40

Lean
Dems 56
GOP 40

Tilt
Dems 58
GOP 42

Senate election-Final Call- New Jersy- Key Race

NOTE: This is Not a No Brainer but Polling Info Released this week has Lead me to this Decision:

Currant Polls
D) Launtenberg 51%
R) Zimmer 40%

Launtenber Peak (8/11):
Launtenberg 50-32

Zimmer Peak (7/21)
Launtenberg 45-37

Launtenberg Approval: 42%

2002 Results: Launtenberg 54-44

X-Factors
1) The Only Reason Launtenberg has not been Voted out is Because NJ hates The GOP.
2) he was forced to run in 2002 after Torcelli Dropped and was a former senator at the time

Final Call
Launtenberg 56%
Zimmer 44%

Senate
X-Dem 51
GOP 37

Senate Final Call- Kuntuckey- Key Race

NOTE: This does not count as a no Brainer But A poll released this week lead me to this

Polls:
McConel 52%
Lansford 35%

McConell Peak (9/9):
McConel 52-35

Lansford Peak (5/22):
Lansford 49-44

McConel Approval: 51%

2002:McConel 65-35

Final Call:
McConel 56%
Lansford 44%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 37

Final Call - Mississippi Senate Class II

Polls
R) Cochran 59%
D) Flemming 34%

Cochran Approval 58%

2002: Cochran 85-15

Final Call
Cochran 64%
Flemming 36%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 36

Senate election-Final Call- Idaho

Polls
R) Risch 50%
D) Larooca 31%
I) Rammel 5%

Creig (R) Approval: 34%

2002: Creig 65-33

X- Factors
1) had creig ran this would have been a sure Democratic Pick up.

Final Call
Risch 56%
Larooca 38%
Rammel 6%

Senate
Dem 50
GOP 35

Senate election-Final Call- Nebraska- Key Race

Polls
R) Johannas 60%
D) Keeleb 34%

2002 Haggle 83-15

Haggle (R) Approval: 61%

Johannas 63%
Keeleb 37%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 34

Senate election-Final Call- Kansas

Poll
R) Roberts 58%
D) Slattary 32%

Roberts Approval: 55%

2002: Roberts 83-9-8

Final Call
Roberts 62%
Slattary 38%

Senate:
Dem 50
GOP 33

Senate election-Final Call- Oklahoma

Currant Polls
R) Inhofe 56%
D) Rice 34%

Inhofe Approval: 48%

2002: Inhofe 57-36

Final Call
Inhofe 57%
Rice 43%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 32

Senate election-Final Call- Tennesee

Currant Poll
R) Alexander 60%
D) Tuke 30%

Alexander Approval 53%

2002: Alexander 54-44

Final Call
Alexander 63%
Tuke 37%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 31

Senate election-Final Call- South Carolina

Only Poll
R) Graham 54%
D) Conely 32%

2002 Results: Graham 54-44

Graham Approval: 57%

Final Call
Graham 55%
Conely 45%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 30

Senate Final Call- Wyoming class I and II

Final Call
Class I
Barosso 64%
Carter 36%

Class II
Enzi 83%
Rothfuss 17%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 29

Senate election- MAJOR Final Call- Virginia

Currant Polls
D) Mark Warner 56%
R) Gilmoure 35%

Mark Warner Peak (6/16) :
Warner 59-28

Gilmour Peak (1/3):
Warner 53-38

John Warner (R) Approval: 57%

X-Factors
1) had John Warner Chosen to run again the GOP would have held on
2) Mark Warner Popular Former Governor
3) Gilmour Ran for President but didn't get far

Final Call
M.Warner 60%
Gilmour 40%

Senate
Democrats 50
GOP 27

Senate election-Final Call- South Dekota

Poll
D) Johnson 61%
R) Dykstra 32%

Johnson Approval: 67%

2002 election: Johnson 51-49

Final Call:

Johnson 65%
Dykstra 35%

Senate
Dems 49
GOP 27

Friday, September 12, 2008

Senate election-Final Call- Montana

Only Poll
D) Bacus 64%
R) Kehllher 31%

2002: Bacus 63-32

Bacus Approval: 72%

Final Call
Bacus 67-33

Senate
Dems 48
GOP 27

Final Call - Massachusets Senate

Currant Polls
Kerry 58%
Beatty 32%

Kerry Approval: 54%

2002 Results: Kerry 72% Libritarian 16% GOP 10%

Final Call
Kerry 62%
Beatty 38%

Senate
Dem 47
GOP 27

Senate election-Final Call- Rhode Island

Only Poll
Reed 72%
Tingle 20%

Reed Approval: 66%

2002 results: Reed 78- Tingle 21

X-factors: 2002 Rematch

Final Call
Reed 76%
Tingle 24%

Senate
Dems 46
GOP 27

Senate Final Call-Illinois

Currant Polls
D) Durban 61%
R) Saurberg 33%

Durban Approval: 52%

2002 Election Durban 60-38

Final Call:
Durban 64%
Saurbeg 36%

Senate
Dems 45
GOP 27

Senate election-Final Call- Michigan

Currant Polls
D) Levin 59%
R) Hoogendyke 27%

Hoogendyke peak
Levin 55-35

Levin Peak 59-27

2000 Results Levin 61-38

Levin Approval 54%

Final Call
Levin 61%
Hoogendyke 39%

Senate
Dems 44
GOP 27

Senate election-Final Call- Iowa

Currant Polls
(D) Harkin 60%
(R) Reed 36%

Harkin Peak
Harkin 59-20

Reed Peak
Harkin 53-37

Harkin Approval 55%

Final Call
Harkin 58%
Reed 42%

Senate
Dems 43
GOP 27

Thursday, September 11, 2008

West Virginia Senate- Final Call

Polling:
None

Rockefeller Approval: 65%

2002 Results: Rockefeller 63-37

Final Call
(D) Rockefeller 64%
(R) Wolf 36%

Senate
Dems 42
GOP 27

Final Call - Delaware- senate

Polling
No ones Bothered

Biden Approval: 64%

2000 Results: Biden 58-41

X- Factors
1) Biden is Running for VP

Final Call
Biden 68%
O'Conel 32%

Senate
Dems 41
GOP 27

Sunday, September 7, 2008

The 2008 Governors Races

The First of my no brainer final calls are done. I've finished the easy Governors races and we are left with 5 Races so I will rate and rank them based on how competitive they are them:

5. Delaware: should be an easy democratic victory but it's an open seat and there hasn't been any polling yet, I don't want to take any unnecessary chances. Strong Democrat


4. Missouri : though it is currently held by republican he has retired (and would go down in a landslide any way) and the Challenger is 8 Points ahead. the GOP's Chances are slim but existent So I am holding off on calling this one. Strong Democrat

3.Indiana: this one looked earlier like it would be competitive but the GOP has pulled ahead by about 12. this could just be an early trend and start to trend back tward the left but for now it's looking good for the GOP. Lean Republican

2. Washington: the Democratic Governor (Christine Georgie) won by under 1,000 votes in 2004 and has been fighting to keep her position ever since. it seems that she is winning that fight. she is now leading by about 4 but the race is trending in the other direction. she looks good but right now I'd put the odds of her victory at about 70-30 (Favoring Georgie ). Lean Democrat

1. North Carolina: the popular governor Mike Easly is termed out and this race is wide open. Right now Purdue (the Democratic Nominee) is leading by 1.5 points. it's a bit close for comfort. Obama could help her win but she needs to fight to stay on top. Tossup/ Tilt Democrat


so here are the numbers.

Safe (Already Predicted)
Dem 25
GOP 20

Strong
Dem 27
GOP 20

Lean
Dem 28
GOP 21

Tossups included
Dem 29
GOP 21

Final Call Governors- West Virginia

Polls:
No one has bothered

Manchin Approval: 63%

2004 Results: Manchin 64-32

Final Call
(D) Manchin 67%
(R) Weeks 33%

Governor Count
Dem 25
GOP 20

Governor Final Call- Vermont

Currant (and only) Polls
(R) Dougless 53%
(D) Galbraith 22%
(P) Pollina 15%

2004 Results Dougless 58-37

Dougless Approval 63%

Outliers
1)Vermont is about the only stat where 3ed parties have the power to get over 10% of the vote

Final Call
(R) Dougless 60%
(D) Galbraith 24%
(P) Pollina 16%

Governor Count
Dem 24
GOP 20

Governor Final Call- North Dekota

Currant Polls
(R) Hoeven 63%
(D) Mathurn 19%

Hooven Peak
Hoeven 63-19

Mathurn Peak
Hoeven 67-27

Hoeven Approval: 86%

2004 Results: Hoeven 71-27

Final Call
(R) Hoeven 73%
(D) Mathurn 27%

Governor Count
Dem 24
GOP 19

Governor- Final Call-Montana

Currant Polls
(D) Schwitzer 56%
(R) Brown 32%

Schwitzer Peak
Schwitzer 61-32

Brown Peak
Schwitzer 56-32

Shwitzer Approval: 66%

2004 Margin: Shwitzer 51%Brown 46%

Outliers
1)This is a 2004 Rematch and They didn't vote for Brown then.
2) GOP is much worse off than they were in 2004
3) Shwitzer's Convention Speech will get him votes
4) High Approval

Final Call
(D) Schwitzer 62%
(R) Brown 38%

Governor Count
Dem 24
GOP 18

Governor-Final Call-Utah

Currant Polls
(R) Huntsman 73%
(D) Springmeyer 9%

Huntsman Peak
Huntsman 78-11

SpringMeyer Peak
Huntsman 66-19

Huntsman Approval: 72%

Final Call
Huntsman 81%
Springmeyer 19%

Governor Count
Dem 23
GOP 18

Governor- Final Call-New Hampshire

Currant Polls
(D) Lynch 58%
(R) Kenney 32%

Kenney Peak
Lynch 58-32

Lynch Peak
Lynch 68-17

Approval Rating 57%

Final Call
(D) Lynch 66%
(R) Kenney 34%

Governors
Dem 23
GOP 17

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Senate election-Final Call- Alabama

Currant Polls
R-Sessions 59%
D-Figures 32%

Sessions Peak
Sessions 62-29

Figures Peak
Sessions 57-36

2002 Results: Sessions +19

Sessions Approval Rating: 56%

Final Call
(R) Sessions 63%
(D) Figures 37%

Senate
Dem 40
GOP 27

Presidential-Final Call- Wyoming

Currant Polls
McCain 62%
Obama 25%

2004 Results:
Bush 69-29

Final Call
McCain 70%
Obama 30%

Electoral Vote:
Obama 10
McCain 8

Presidential-Final Call-Rhode Island

Currant Polls
Obama 53%
McCain 30%

Obama Peak
Obama 53-25

McCain Peak
Obama 50-32

2004 Results
Kerry 60-39

Turnout say:
1)Obama's To Loose

Final Call
Obama 61% (4 EV)
McCain 37%
Barr 1%
Nader 1%

Electoral Vote
Obama 10
McCain 5

Presidential-Final Call- Vermont

Currant Polls
Obama 63%
McCain 29%

Obama Peak
Obama 63-29

McCain Peak
Obama 57-36

2004 Results Kerry 59-39

Turn out say
1)Obama Has it

Final Call
Obama 64% (3 EV's)
McCain 35%
Nader 1%

Electoral Vote
Obama 6
McCain 5

Presidential- Final Call- Utah

Currant Polls
McCain 62%
Obama 23%

McCain Peak
Mccain 62-23

Obama Peak
McCain 52-33

Out Liers
Safe McCain

Turn out say:
1)McCain Will win

2004 Results
Bush 72-26

Final Call
Mccain 71% (5 EV)
Obama 28%
Barr 1%

Electoral Vote
McCain 5
Obama 3

Senate election-Final Call- Arkansaws

2002 Results: Pryor (D) + 8%

Outliers
1)Pryor Unopposed

Final Call
(D) Pryor 100%

Senate
Democrats 40
Republicans 26

Presidential election- Washington DC Final Call

Now that the conventions have ended I am Starting to Make Final Calls and Begaining with Washington DC

2004 Results
D-Kerry 91%
R-Bush 9%

Polls:
No ones even Bothered

X-Factors
1) Obama helps with Black Turn out

Turn out say
1)this one goes to Obama No Matter What

Final Call
Obama 95% (3 EV's)
McCain 3%
Nader 1%
Barr 1%

electoral Vote
Obama 3
McCain 0

Convention Jumps Historicaly

2000

Pre-DNC
Bush 55%
Gore 39%

Post DNC
Gore 47% (+8%)
Bush 44% (-11%)

Gore Net Jump: +19%


Pre-RNC
Bush 50%
Gore 39%


Post RNC
Bush 54% (+4%)
Gore 37% (-2%)

Bush Net Jump: +6%


Final Election Results
Gore 49%(-2% from Bounce) (267)
Bush 48% (-18% from Bounce)(271)


2004
Pre-RNC
Bush 49%
Kerry 49%

Post RNC
Bush 51% (+2%)
Kerry 41% (-8%)

Bush Net: +10%

Pre-DNC
Kerry 46%
Bush 43%

Post DNC
Kerry 50% (+4%)
Bush 43% (+/- 0%)

Kerry Net +4%

Final Results
Bush 51% (-7% From Bounce)(286)
Kerry 48% (-10% from Bounce)(252)

2008

Pre RNC
Obama 48%
McCain 39%

Post RNC
Not Yet Available (As of now Obama 47% McCain 45% )

Pre-DNC
Obama 47%
McCain 47%

Post DNC
Obama 48% (+1%)
McCain 39% (-8%)

Net: Obama +9%

Final Results
Not Yet Available

The Biggest Jump was Gore in 2000 (+19%) The Smallest was Kerry in 2004 (+4%). If I were to put in Today's Gallup poll as the Post RNC Numbers It would be: Obama 47% (-1%) McCain 45% (+6%) and give McCain a 7% Net, but conduction of the poll began on 9/3, McCain Didn't give his speech till 9/4 Which Means I am Giving him till Monday. In the past two elections the person that holds thai ground better (lost less after the other convention) have won . In all 5 conventions (Not counting this years RNC) anylized the Convention holder had the lead after their Bounce, If John McCain does not victory could Proove Dificult. Every one has lost the Magnitude of their lead after the bounce (Gore Lead by 3 and won by 1 Which means -2 from bounce), which means an Obama 9+% victory is unlikely. The Post Convention Bounce in all but one case since 2000 (Gore lead by 6 at one point) has been the biggest lead the candidates have from that point on which means if McCain doesn't take the lead it is unlikely that he will get it.
I am Giving McCain till monday. If he does not have the lead then Obama will be the overwelming favorite.

I will not do any Ratings or other anylizations untill the conventiontion dust settles, But this Opens the door for me to start makeing Final Calls which are Subgect to change untill election night eve.

Republican National Convention Speaker Grades

Night one
Haily Barbor C
Charlie Christ A-
Rick Perry F
Bob Riley D

Night two
Fred Thompson B
Joe Leiberman D
George Bush D-

Night Three
Rudy Guiliani D
Mike Huckabee A-
Mitt Romney C
Sara Palin D-

Night Four
John McCain D

Best non-prime time speaker: Tim Pawenty

Friday, September 5, 2008

The Pros and Cons of Sarah Palin

Pro's
-She's a woman

Cons
-No experience
-Ties to Ted Stevens
-Under Investigation
-Extreme right whinger
-will get owned by Biden in the debate
-Shows Hollow attempt for McCain to out

That's -5. Joe Lieberman would have been a better choice for god sake. she is a horrible choice!!

Palin is a horrible choice and will come back to bite McCain.

Democratic National Convention Speech Grade

Night one
Ted Kennedy A-
Michelle Obama A-

Night Two
Mark Warner C
Hillary Clinton B

Night Three
Bill Clinton A+
Joe Biden A

Night Four
Barack Obama A+ (hit this one out of the park)

The Best non-prime time speaker: Dennis Kucinich


I will do the RNC this Weekend.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Breaking News- Alaska GOP Primary

Although I do not Usually make my congressional Primary final calls Public or talk about them in this blog, this one is exceptionally close and Important. by the way I picked Don Young in this one.

Lindsay Politics is ready to Project that Don Young is the Apparent Victor in the 2008 Alaska GOP House Primary. Here are the Results as of now:

100.0% Reporting
X-Don Young 45.47% (42,548) +151 Votes (0.16%)
Steve Parnell 45.31% (42,397)

What does this mean? the democrats are now extremely Likely to defeat Young. He is under indictment and is now exceedingly unpopular. You can all but surely give this one to the democrats in November.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

McCain VP Final Call

The McCain VP short list is expected to consist of five names: Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Joe Leiberman and Eric Cantor.

My Final Call as I have layed out in nearly every post on McCain's VP is that he will choose...........

Mitt Romney.

Friday, August 22, 2008

Breaking news-Obama picks his VP

It's Biden

Late Tonight CNN and the LA Times Report Obama has picked Joe Biden to be his Running mate. I called it in a recent post. I feel Biden is the Most qualified and the Best man for the job



Thursday, August 21, 2008

New Presidential Ratings

I will start poll checks and races to watch up again next time I rate the race. I am Changing My Popular Vote Prediction to Obama 50% McCain 46% Barr 4% Here are my new Ratings:
Safe Obama (207 EV)
CA
HI
WA
OR
WI
IL
IA
DC
MD
NJ
DE
NY
CT
RI
MA
ME
VT

Lean Obama (260 EV)
MN
MI
PA
NM

Tilt Obama (311 EV)
NH
NV
OH
CO
VA

Tilt McCain (227 EV)
MT
ND
IN
NC
FL
MO

Lean McCain (157)
SD
AK
AR
LA
MS
GA
SC
WV

Safe McCain (102)
AL
AZ
ID
KS
KY
NE
OK
TN
TX
UT
WY




here is my map with tossups

Here it is without

New Presidential Ratings

Obama VP Final Call

Obama is set to announce his VP Friday in an e-mail and formally announce it Saturday. I am Calling it today. Obama's VP short list Consist of: Evan Bahy, Tim Kaine, Kathleen Sabillius and Joe Biden. If my Final Call is Accurate Obama Will Pick...............

Joe Biden


Before Looking at why Biden is qualified lets look at why the others won't be picked.

Sabillius Lacks Foreign Policy experience and is a woman. Sexism and Racism on the same ticket will not be good for the democratic party. She also Lacks Charisma and won't help much (if at all) in the mid west.

Bahy, Where to start. For one he has zero charisma. He is planning a possible 2012 or 2016 run and Obama said "I don't want someone who wants to be president some day. He is considered by many to be a DINO (Democrat In Name Only). He would hurt the democrats chances of getting 60 seats in November (GOP Governor appoints GOP Replacement if he is elected.) Bahy will not be the choice.

Now that leaves us with two: Tim Kane and Joe Biden

Let's Talk Kaine

Con's

1) Mark Warner is giving the Keynote address at the Democratic convention.

2) Kaine has a chance of being President

3) Kaine is Pro-Life

4) No Experience

Pro's

5) Kaine Helps in Virginia and North Carolina.

6) Kaine is Charismatic

7) Kaine Endorsed Obama Early


Now let's look at Biden

Con's
1) Runs his mouth off a bit much

Pro's
2) Relates to Common people

3) would help all through the upper Midwest.

4) Strong Foreign policy credentials

5) engineered The Best Iraq plan there is

6) one of the biggest Bush Critics

7) Great speaker

8) Reagan/Kennedy-esq sense of humor



Biden has a net of +6 to Kaine's -1. Kaine could be the choice but right now all odds favor Biden.

These are the odds I would give to Obama's VP choices
Biden 95%
Kaine 4%
Other 1%

Saturday, August 9, 2008

New Senate Poll check and Ratings

Poll Check
LA- Landriue (D) By 6
NJ-Launtenberg (D) by 15
AK-Begich (D) by 17
CO- Udall (D) By 7
KS-Roberts (R) by 28
KY-McConell (R) by 9.3
ME-Collins (R) by 10
MN- Coleman (R) by 6
MS- Wicker (R) by 5
NH- Shaheen (D) by 14
NM-Udall (D) by 27.3
NC- Dole (R) by 8.5
OR- Smith (R) by 3
TX- Cornyn (R) by 4.5
VA- Warner (D) by 24

Ratings:
Strong Dem (55: 50 D 5 R)
NJ
AK
CO
VA
NM
NH

Lean Dem (56: 51 D 5 R)
LA

Tilt Dem (57: 51 D 6 R)
MS

Tilt GOP (43: 43 R)
TX
OR
MN

Lean GOP (40: 40R)
NC
KY
ME

Strong GOP (37: 37 R)
KS

Taken Off Watch: Kansas
Races To Watch: Oregon, Mississippi & Minnesota

Mississippi is an interesting race. The seat opened when Trent Lott Resigned. Watch the African American Turn out. 42% of Mississippi is black and if they turn out and vote, the Democrats Will do better than they are polling.

Gordon Smith is a Moderate Republican, He has ran adds Praising Obama and has not yet endorsed McCain. Some could argue that he votes with the democrats the majority of the time. this race will stay close. His Chalenger Merleky was ahead for a short time. My guess is that smith will come out the winner but it's any ones game.

Minnesota is Fluctuating. Franken wasn't helped much by the Edwards Affair (Edwards Campaigned with him earlier in the week) but it should have a slim to nil effect. it will fluctuate right up till the end. it's way too early to make any predictions on this race.


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