Sunday, September 7, 2008

The 2008 Governors Races

The First of my no brainer final calls are done. I've finished the easy Governors races and we are left with 5 Races so I will rate and rank them based on how competitive they are them:

5. Delaware: should be an easy democratic victory but it's an open seat and there hasn't been any polling yet, I don't want to take any unnecessary chances. Strong Democrat

4. Missouri : though it is currently held by republican he has retired (and would go down in a landslide any way) and the Challenger is 8 Points ahead. the GOP's Chances are slim but existent So I am holding off on calling this one. Strong Democrat

3.Indiana: this one looked earlier like it would be competitive but the GOP has pulled ahead by about 12. this could just be an early trend and start to trend back tward the left but for now it's looking good for the GOP. Lean Republican

2. Washington: the Democratic Governor (Christine Georgie) won by under 1,000 votes in 2004 and has been fighting to keep her position ever since. it seems that she is winning that fight. she is now leading by about 4 but the race is trending in the other direction. she looks good but right now I'd put the odds of her victory at about 70-30 (Favoring Georgie ). Lean Democrat

1. North Carolina: the popular governor Mike Easly is termed out and this race is wide open. Right now Purdue (the Democratic Nominee) is leading by 1.5 points. it's a bit close for comfort. Obama could help her win but she needs to fight to stay on top. Tossup/ Tilt Democrat

so here are the numbers.

Safe (Already Predicted)
Dem 25
GOP 20

Dem 27
GOP 20

Dem 28
GOP 21

Tossups included
Dem 29
GOP 21

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