Saturday, September 6, 2008

Convention Jumps Historicaly


Bush 55%
Gore 39%

Post DNC
Gore 47% (+8%)
Bush 44% (-11%)

Gore Net Jump: +19%

Bush 50%
Gore 39%

Post RNC
Bush 54% (+4%)
Gore 37% (-2%)

Bush Net Jump: +6%

Final Election Results
Gore 49%(-2% from Bounce) (267)
Bush 48% (-18% from Bounce)(271)

Bush 49%
Kerry 49%

Post RNC
Bush 51% (+2%)
Kerry 41% (-8%)

Bush Net: +10%

Kerry 46%
Bush 43%

Post DNC
Kerry 50% (+4%)
Bush 43% (+/- 0%)

Kerry Net +4%

Final Results
Bush 51% (-7% From Bounce)(286)
Kerry 48% (-10% from Bounce)(252)


Obama 48%
McCain 39%

Post RNC
Not Yet Available (As of now Obama 47% McCain 45% )

Obama 47%
McCain 47%

Post DNC
Obama 48% (+1%)
McCain 39% (-8%)

Net: Obama +9%

Final Results
Not Yet Available

The Biggest Jump was Gore in 2000 (+19%) The Smallest was Kerry in 2004 (+4%). If I were to put in Today's Gallup poll as the Post RNC Numbers It would be: Obama 47% (-1%) McCain 45% (+6%) and give McCain a 7% Net, but conduction of the poll began on 9/3, McCain Didn't give his speech till 9/4 Which Means I am Giving him till Monday. In the past two elections the person that holds thai ground better (lost less after the other convention) have won . In all 5 conventions (Not counting this years RNC) anylized the Convention holder had the lead after their Bounce, If John McCain does not victory could Proove Dificult. Every one has lost the Magnitude of their lead after the bounce (Gore Lead by 3 and won by 1 Which means -2 from bounce), which means an Obama 9+% victory is unlikely. The Post Convention Bounce in all but one case since 2000 (Gore lead by 6 at one point) has been the biggest lead the candidates have from that point on which means if McCain doesn't take the lead it is unlikely that he will get it.
I am Giving McCain till monday. If he does not have the lead then Obama will be the overwelming favorite.

I will not do any Ratings or other anylizations untill the conventiontion dust settles, But this Opens the door for me to start makeing Final Calls which are Subgect to change untill election night eve.

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