Sunday, March 23, 2008

All Politics is Local- the Mid Atlantic

In 2004 Kerry swept this area. In 2008 will it be a repeat, or will McCain win a couple states? It could be his only shot.

Presidential Race-
Washington DC (3)- W DC is the most liberal place in America. In 2004 It went 90-8 for Kerry. In the Mayoral election of 2006 it went for the Democrat 91-5-4 (the 5 is the green party). It also has a 70% AA population so it should go to Obama in record numbers. Safe Obama

New York (31)- Being former Kerry-Gore-Clinton-Dukakus strong hold there is no way it will go McCain. Obama leads by 12. Safe Obama

Maryland (10)- Maryland has a Huge AA population. Obama holds a 10 point lead it is very hard to see the GOP doing well. Safe Obama

Del. (3)- DE has been constantly Dukakus in 88. Obama Leads by 9. a GOP win could happen here but the prospects of Biden in the Admin. makes it unlikely Favored Obama

Penn. (21)- Penn. was a HUGE battle ground in 2000 and '04 and will be again in '08. Philly and Pitt. are big democratic strong holds but red Alabama is in the middle. Obama and McCain are Tied at 44. Tossup

New Jersey (15)- NJ has a tendency to be close at the start but come through for the Democrats at the end. The In 04 Kerry and Bush were tied until Kerry's 10 point win. In '06 Menendez appeared to have a tough race but won by 11 points. the race is tied right now though. Tossup


Del.- The Current Governor Retired. the GOP has only one strong candidate in the state and he's in the Congress. Safe Democrat

The Senate-
Del- Biden had a run for the white house and lost. he is beloved in the state he has a 63% (+29%) Approval rating so he's not going any where. Safe Democrat

New Jersey- Frank Launtenberg is in his mid 80's and Running for re-election. his story is interesting. in 2002 he was taken out of retirement to fill Torcelli's seat who resigned in a corruption scandal. he started to serve with Jon Corzine who ran for and is now governor, Which was Vacated by Jim Mcgrevey who resigned after being outed. Bob Menendez took over Corzine's seat in 2005. In 2006 he faced tough election against Tom Kean. Kean is the only Republican in the state who could beat Lautenberg. Otherwise the GOP has No shot at his seat. Safe Democrat

GOP held Seats-
NY-26- Tom Rennyolds anounced his retirement. Everyone hated him after being linked with both the Foley and Ney Scandals. that is probably why he retired. in 2006 he came a way with a miraculous 51-49 win. Though the PVI is R+3 the democrats have a decent shot. Tilt Democrat Pickup

MD-1 popular Rep. Gilchrest retired his last election was 69-31 so Dems aren't holding there
breath. the PVI is R+10 Favored GOP Hold

PA-3- the GOP sliped away with a 1 point win in 2006. the Dems have a very good shot the PVI is D+2. to spite that the GOP wants to keep the seat badly. Lean GOP Hold

NJ-7 Ferguson retired and the PVI is only R+1. He only won by 3 in 2006. Tilt GOP hold

NY-25- Jim Walsh is retiring. his victory in 2006 was 51-49 and had he retired then it would have turned blue. the PVI is D+3 and the district is right next to Rennolds. Lean Dem Pickup

NJ-3- Saxton is retiring he was very popular in his district but it has a PVI of D+3 (factoring in his large victories). Tilt Dem Pickup

Democratic held seats
NY-19- John Hall won an upset 52-48 in 2006. the districts PVI is R+1. He is in risk but has a good re-election shot Lean Dem Hold

NY-20 this was the site of a 53-47. Democratic Pickup in 2006 the PVI is R+3. but that was pre-2008.Favored Democratic Hold

NY-24- PVI R+1, Democratic Pick up in 06 54-45. Favored Dem Hold

PA-4- Dem Pickup in '06 52-48, PVI R+3 Freshman hoping to hold on Lean Democratic hold

PA-10- Another freshman congressman hoping to hold on. Carney won 53-47 in 2006 but the PVI is R+8. He could become another John Berrow if he wins where he is never safe but tends to win. Tilt GOP Pickup

Mid Atl. S: Obama 44 McCain 0 F: Obama 47 McCain 0 L; Obama 47 McCain 0 Tossup: 36
USA TD Safe: Obama 70 McCain 0 F: Obama 81 McCain 0 L: Obama 81 McCain 0 Tossup: 36

M. Atlantic S: D 2 R 0 L: D 2 R 0 tossup 0
USA to date S: D 44 R 26 L: D 44 R: 27 Tossup 0

Mid Atl. S: D 1 R 0 L: D 1 R 0
Nation to date S: D 24 R 18 L: D24 R 18 Tossup 0
Mid Atlantic: S:D 41 R 17 F: D 43 R 18 L: D 47 R 19 T: D 49 R 21
USA to Date: S: D 57 R 17 F: D 62 R 18 L: D 69 R 19 T: D 71 R 21

Saturday, March 22, 2008

All Politics is Local- New England

New England: since 1988 only once has a state in New england gone for a Republican in a presidential election. The Republicans that have been in the senate have been pretty moderate
(though their now starting to die out) and the same has been true of GOP governors in New England here. is my over view of each race:

Presidential Election:
Vermont (3): Vermont is the most Liberal state in the US. The chairman of the DNC was governor, they have a socialist senator, and have brought Impeachment proceedings against george bush up in the state legislature.McCain Has No shot in Vermont. Safe Obama

Mass.(12): Mass. has not gone Republican since 1984 and has not one elected Republican Official in high office. Safe Obama

R.I.(4): Despite several siting and Former GOP Officials from Rhode Island there has been No Republican Winner since 1984. Kerry won by 20 points and Liberal Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee lost in 2006 Because of his Party. Jack Reed is one of the Most left winged senators and is beloved there Obama leads by 15 in polls. Safe Obama

Conn.(7):No GOP winner since 1984. in 2006 the Dems picked two House seats and Chris Dodd Could be a big player in the Obama Campaign. They went for Both Obama and McCain in the Primaries. Obama leads by 12 In Polls. McCains Chances are Limited at best. Safe Obama

Maine (4): Maine is one of the few states that split it's electoral votes by Congressional District. Obama Won the Maine Caucus and McCain Lost. It has 2 GOP senators though. at one point Kerry was loosing in '04 but Obama leads by 14. Favored Obama

New Hampshire(4): New Hampshire is the only state in NE to go Red in the last 20 years. It went for Bush in 2000 and Kerry won by only 1% in 2004. It has 2 GOP Senators and Sununu has been talked about as a possible VP candidate. However In 2006 the GOP lost both house Races, and a Gov. race which should have been competitive. in 2008 they are loosing a big Senate race and the Governors race again. Obama leads by 3. Favored Obama

The Senate:
New Hampshire: John Sununu Is am Moderate Republican who was grandfathered in to the senate. He May be picked as McCain's Running mate and not even face re election. He is facing Jean Shaheen, a popular former Governor. He is down By 8-17 Points in polls. his approval rating is 47% (+3%) but Shaheen is huge. Safe Democrat

Maine: Susan Collins is Huge in Maine. though she is a Republican she is popular not just in Maine but nation wide. Her approval rating is 73% (+50%) the fourth highest in the nation. to spite all this Lincoln Chafee lost in Rode Island in 2006 (53-47 with a 51%(+3%)Approval Rating) and some experts think the same thing could happen to her. Her Challenger is long time rep Tom Allen but, She leads in polls by 20 points so don't hold your breath .Lean Republican
Mass.: John Kerry was the Democratic nominee in 2004 and is one of the most liberal senators in one of the most Liberal states. He leads by 30+ in polls and has an Approval rating of 52%(+8%) Mass. will not elect a Republican. Safe Democrat

R.I.: Jack Reed has a 66% (+39%) Approval Rating. Lincoln Chafee Just lost solely because of his party. Reed is Safe. Safe Democrat

New Hampshire: Lynch was Elected in '06 by 50 points and as a very high Approval Rating. the landslide of 06 looks bad for the GOP in New Hampshire. Safe Democrat

Vermont: I don't know how Vermont has a republican Governor but they do and they love him. He won by 16 points in '06. Maybe Democrats have a shot but it's pretty unlikely. Safe GOP

The House
GOP Held Seat: in 2006 the Democrats won all but one seat in New England. the GOP only won Chris Shays seat by 3 points.
Conn. 4: The district has a PVI of D+4 he may be retiring Shays only won by a margin of 51-48.
It will be on the top of the Democrats list. Lean Democratic Pick up

Purple Represents 1 seat not safe Light red is 2-3 Dark Red is 3+

Democratic Held Seats:
the Democrats Swept the 2006 NE House elections. They are looking at holding all of their seats:
Maine 1: Tom Allen is running for senate against Susan Collins, The PVI is D+9 but circumstance gives the democrats the Advantage. Favored Democratic Hold

New Hampshire 1: This District is the more right winged of NH's 2 congressional Districts.
The Democrats won Unexpectedly 52-48 in 2006. though the PVI is just D/R+0 the 2006 landslides in New Hampshire and the 2008 races in NH are making things look bad for the GOP in NH1. Lean Democratic Hold
Mass. 5: there was a special election in this district the Democrats won 52-47. Mass. has no republican Rep's but that could change. Weird things happen in special elections though. Favored Democratic Hold
Conn. 5: Chris Murphy beat the Republican Incumbent Handedly in 2006(56-44). the District has a PVI of D+4. the odds are the Democrats will hold this seat. Favored Democratic Hold
Conn. 4: in 2006 the Democrat Courtney beat Simmons by just 91 Votes. The PVI is D+8 so it is just within the bounds of "swing District". this race Could prove to be close again. Lean Democrat

Light Blue indicates 1 seat is Not safe Medium Blue Represents 2-3 Seats Dark Blue Represents 3+

Summery of Data:
In the presidential election the electoral vote is:
New England: Safe: Obama 26 McCain 0 Favored: Obama 34 McCain 0 Lean: Obama 34 McCain 0 Tossup:0
Nation To date: Safe: Obama 26 McCain 0 Favored: Obama 34 McCain 0 Lean Obama 34 McCain 0 Tossup:0

In the senate:
New England: Safe: Dem 3 GOP 0 Lean: Dem 3 GOP 1 Tossup: 0
Nation to date: Safe: Dem 42 GOP 26 Favored: Dem 42 GOP:27

New England:Safe: Dem 1 GOP 1 Lean: Dem 1 GOP 1 tossup: 0
Nation To date : Safe: Dem 23 GOP 18 Lean: Dem 23 GOP 18 Tossup: 0

New England: Safe: Dem 16 GOP 0 Favored: Dem 19 GOP 0 Lean: Dem 22 GOP 0 Tilt: Dem 22 GOP 0
National To date: S: D 16 R 0 F: D 19 R 0 L: D 22 R 0 T: D 22 R 0 Pickups D: 1 R: 0
This map represents Pickups in the house: Light Blue/Red is net 1 Medium Blue/Red is 2-3 Dark is 3+ Green is change but no net. Grey is no change

Missippi Results, Ahead Pennslvania and beyond, Intro to "all politics is Local"

In Mississippi McCain Won as expected with 79% of the vote against Ron Paul and Allen Keyes. For the Democrats:
Obama 61% (19)
Clinton 37% (14)
I was expecting a 20-13 split. Obama's post 3-4 Wins show that he still has the momentum. The Rev. Right story is starting to blow over so that will be lost in the news by Penn.

I am looking ahead to the rest of the democratic contest. Obama should win IN, NC, OR,MT and SD While Clinton Will win WV and PA. KY is a tossup right now. however the fact remains Obama is the presumtive nominee. the real question in play is how long will Hillary keep Obama from Campaigning against McCain? I expect her to drop out on May 6th, The day of NC and IN.

I am now going to spend the next few weeks in a series. it is called "all politics is local". In this I will go through the US region by region and observe the races in the House, Senate, Governors and Presidential Race. The Regions are: New England, The Mid Atlantic, The South, The Industrial Midwest, The South west, The Upper Mid west, the Pacific rim and the other Two (AK & HI).

Monday, March 10, 2008

Wyoming Results, Final Call Mississippi

These are the results of the primaries thus far. On Sunday Obama added Wyoming to his run. He won it with a 61-38 margin. In states he's wining (with The exception of Iowa, Conn. and Missouri) he's wining huge. Obama has now won 13 of the last 16 which gives him a winning % of 81% since Super Tuesday. The math and the momentum simply don't add up for Clinton.

Here is my Mississippi Final Call
McCain 94%
Keyes 6%

Obama 62%
Clinton 38%

Friday, March 7, 2008

Mini Tuesday results and Wyoming Final Call

1 Day to Wyoming.

McCain Clinched the Gop Nomination on Tuesday
sweeping the primaries (RI 65-22, TX 51-38, OH 60-31 VT 72-14) Mike Huckabee
dropped out as pledged. on his short list for his VP slot probably looks something like this:
1. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
2. Mark Sanford (R-SC)
3. Charlie Christ (R-FL)
4. Fred Thompson (R-TN)
5. Rudy Guiliani (R-NY)
6. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)
7. Tom Coburn (R-OK) (cringe)
8. John Sununu (R-NH)
9. Mitch McConel (R-KY)
10. Mitt Romney (R-MA) (Cringe)

all of these guys have their pro's & cons for McCain, He wants someone conservatives will like. he might want some one from New England to be aggressive on the Dems in states like PA, NH,NJ,CT and ME for witch he might want Romney, Guiliani or Sununu or lieberman. He might want someone from the south to ward off democratic blows and re-affirm states like NC, SC, TN,VA, FL, AR and MO for witch he would pick Huckabee, Thompson, Sanford, Christ, Guiliani, McConel or Coburn. He way want to take Mitch McConel out of his seat and get someone more centrist like Lamar Alexander. He may want a "true Conservative to keep right whingers from staying at home like McConel, Romney, Coburn, Thompson, Huckabee or Sanford or he may want someone to "prove that he's a mavric" Lieberman, Sununu, Guiliani, Christ or Huckabee. Huckabee appears to be the best choice because of
1. The south
2. Conservatives
3. Centrists
4. he's out of office
5. would do best for McCain's electability
His 2ed place showing didn't hurt him

For the Democrats Obama has all but clinched the nomination. according to my estimate Hillary needs 70% of delegates in states she will win ( just WV, PA & KY) other estimates have that number as high as 80%. If Michigan re-votes Obama will Probably win and if Florida re-votes Hillary will win by less than she did the 1st time. SUPER DELEGATES WILL NOT OVER TURN THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE !!! it simply won't happen. There was a survey USA poll that came out yesterday with the Electoral collage Numbers. Obama does really well in the upper Midwest. Look for states like SD, MT, NE, ND, OK and TX to be competitive if Obama wins. Here Were the results on Tuesday
VT Obama 60%-39%
OH Clinton 55-44
RI Clinton 58-40
TX (P) Clinton 51-48
TX (C) Obama 56-44
My final call for Wyoming is:
Obama 68%
Clinton 32%

Monday, March 3, 2008

Mini Tuesday Final Call

McCain Will clinch the nomination Tuesday unless Huckabee can pull a victory in Texas and/or Ohio. I predict his VP will be Mike Huckabee. I will start talking about that on 3/5. Here are my Final calls:
McCain 60%
Huckabee 27%
Paul 13%
McCain 62%
Huckabee 31%
Paul 7%
McCain 63%
Huckabee 30%
Paul 7%
McCain 57%
Huckabee 41%
Paul 2%

For the democrats Hillary needs to win HUGE in TX and OH to go on. Obama has the momentum on his side and will likely go on to win the nomination. Here is my final call:
Obama 68%
Clinton 31%
Clinton 52%
Obama 46%
Obama 52%
Clinton 47%
Clinton 49%
Obama 48%