Saturday, March 22, 2008

All Politics is Local- New England

New England: since 1988 only once has a state in New england gone for a Republican in a presidential election. The Republicans that have been in the senate have been pretty moderate
(though their now starting to die out) and the same has been true of GOP governors in New England here. is my over view of each race:

Presidential Election:
Vermont (3): Vermont is the most Liberal state in the US. The chairman of the DNC was governor, they have a socialist senator, and have brought Impeachment proceedings against george bush up in the state legislature.McCain Has No shot in Vermont. Safe Obama

Mass.(12): Mass. has not gone Republican since 1984 and has not one elected Republican Official in high office. Safe Obama

R.I.(4): Despite several siting and Former GOP Officials from Rhode Island there has been No Republican Winner since 1984. Kerry won by 20 points and Liberal Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee lost in 2006 Because of his Party. Jack Reed is one of the Most left winged senators and is beloved there Obama leads by 15 in polls. Safe Obama

Conn.(7):No GOP winner since 1984. in 2006 the Dems picked two House seats and Chris Dodd Could be a big player in the Obama Campaign. They went for Both Obama and McCain in the Primaries. Obama leads by 12 In Polls. McCains Chances are Limited at best. Safe Obama

Maine (4): Maine is one of the few states that split it's electoral votes by Congressional District. Obama Won the Maine Caucus and McCain Lost. It has 2 GOP senators though. at one point Kerry was loosing in '04 but Obama leads by 14. Favored Obama

New Hampshire(4): New Hampshire is the only state in NE to go Red in the last 20 years. It went for Bush in 2000 and Kerry won by only 1% in 2004. It has 2 GOP Senators and Sununu has been talked about as a possible VP candidate. However In 2006 the GOP lost both house Races, and a Gov. race which should have been competitive. in 2008 they are loosing a big Senate race and the Governors race again. Obama leads by 3. Favored Obama

The Senate:
New Hampshire: John Sununu Is am Moderate Republican who was grandfathered in to the senate. He May be picked as McCain's Running mate and not even face re election. He is facing Jean Shaheen, a popular former Governor. He is down By 8-17 Points in polls. his approval rating is 47% (+3%) but Shaheen is huge. Safe Democrat

Maine: Susan Collins is Huge in Maine. though she is a Republican she is popular not just in Maine but nation wide. Her approval rating is 73% (+50%) the fourth highest in the nation. to spite all this Lincoln Chafee lost in Rode Island in 2006 (53-47 with a 51%(+3%)Approval Rating) and some experts think the same thing could happen to her. Her Challenger is long time rep Tom Allen but, She leads in polls by 20 points so don't hold your breath .Lean Republican
Mass.: John Kerry was the Democratic nominee in 2004 and is one of the most liberal senators in one of the most Liberal states. He leads by 30+ in polls and has an Approval rating of 52%(+8%) Mass. will not elect a Republican. Safe Democrat

R.I.: Jack Reed has a 66% (+39%) Approval Rating. Lincoln Chafee Just lost solely because of his party. Reed is Safe. Safe Democrat

New Hampshire: Lynch was Elected in '06 by 50 points and as a very high Approval Rating. the landslide of 06 looks bad for the GOP in New Hampshire. Safe Democrat

Vermont: I don't know how Vermont has a republican Governor but they do and they love him. He won by 16 points in '06. Maybe Democrats have a shot but it's pretty unlikely. Safe GOP

The House
GOP Held Seat: in 2006 the Democrats won all but one seat in New England. the GOP only won Chris Shays seat by 3 points.
Conn. 4: The district has a PVI of D+4 he may be retiring Shays only won by a margin of 51-48.
It will be on the top of the Democrats list. Lean Democratic Pick up

Purple Represents 1 seat not safe Light red is 2-3 Dark Red is 3+

Democratic Held Seats:
the Democrats Swept the 2006 NE House elections. They are looking at holding all of their seats:
Maine 1: Tom Allen is running for senate against Susan Collins, The PVI is D+9 but circumstance gives the democrats the Advantage. Favored Democratic Hold

New Hampshire 1: This District is the more right winged of NH's 2 congressional Districts.
The Democrats won Unexpectedly 52-48 in 2006. though the PVI is just D/R+0 the 2006 landslides in New Hampshire and the 2008 races in NH are making things look bad for the GOP in NH1. Lean Democratic Hold
Mass. 5: there was a special election in this district the Democrats won 52-47. Mass. has no republican Rep's but that could change. Weird things happen in special elections though. Favored Democratic Hold
Conn. 5: Chris Murphy beat the Republican Incumbent Handedly in 2006(56-44). the District has a PVI of D+4. the odds are the Democrats will hold this seat. Favored Democratic Hold
Conn. 4: in 2006 the Democrat Courtney beat Simmons by just 91 Votes. The PVI is D+8 so it is just within the bounds of "swing District". this race Could prove to be close again. Lean Democrat

Light Blue indicates 1 seat is Not safe Medium Blue Represents 2-3 Seats Dark Blue Represents 3+

Summery of Data:
In the presidential election the electoral vote is:
New England: Safe: Obama 26 McCain 0 Favored: Obama 34 McCain 0 Lean: Obama 34 McCain 0 Tossup:0
Nation To date: Safe: Obama 26 McCain 0 Favored: Obama 34 McCain 0 Lean Obama 34 McCain 0 Tossup:0

In the senate:
New England: Safe: Dem 3 GOP 0 Lean: Dem 3 GOP 1 Tossup: 0
Nation to date: Safe: Dem 42 GOP 26 Favored: Dem 42 GOP:27

New England:Safe: Dem 1 GOP 1 Lean: Dem 1 GOP 1 tossup: 0
Nation To date : Safe: Dem 23 GOP 18 Lean: Dem 23 GOP 18 Tossup: 0

New England: Safe: Dem 16 GOP 0 Favored: Dem 19 GOP 0 Lean: Dem 22 GOP 0 Tilt: Dem 22 GOP 0
National To date: S: D 16 R 0 F: D 19 R 0 L: D 22 R 0 T: D 22 R 0 Pickups D: 1 R: 0
This map represents Pickups in the house: Light Blue/Red is net 1 Medium Blue/Red is 2-3 Dark is 3+ Green is change but no net. Grey is no change

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