Sunday, March 23, 2008

All Politics is Local- the Mid Atlantic

In 2004 Kerry swept this area. In 2008 will it be a repeat, or will McCain win a couple states? It could be his only shot.

Presidential Race-
Washington DC (3)- W DC is the most liberal place in America. In 2004 It went 90-8 for Kerry. In the Mayoral election of 2006 it went for the Democrat 91-5-4 (the 5 is the green party). It also has a 70% AA population so it should go to Obama in record numbers. Safe Obama

New York (31)- Being former Kerry-Gore-Clinton-Dukakus strong hold there is no way it will go McCain. Obama leads by 12. Safe Obama

Maryland (10)- Maryland has a Huge AA population. Obama holds a 10 point lead it is very hard to see the GOP doing well. Safe Obama

Del. (3)- DE has been constantly Dukakus in 88. Obama Leads by 9. a GOP win could happen here but the prospects of Biden in the Admin. makes it unlikely Favored Obama

Penn. (21)- Penn. was a HUGE battle ground in 2000 and '04 and will be again in '08. Philly and Pitt. are big democratic strong holds but red Alabama is in the middle. Obama and McCain are Tied at 44. Tossup

New Jersey (15)- NJ has a tendency to be close at the start but come through for the Democrats at the end. The In 04 Kerry and Bush were tied until Kerry's 10 point win. In '06 Menendez appeared to have a tough race but won by 11 points. the race is tied right now though. Tossup



Governor-

Del.- The Current Governor Retired. the GOP has only one strong candidate in the state and he's in the Congress. Safe Democrat

The Senate-
Del- Biden had a run for the white house and lost. he is beloved in the state he has a 63% (+29%) Approval rating so he's not going any where. Safe Democrat

New Jersey- Frank Launtenberg is in his mid 80's and Running for re-election. his story is interesting. in 2002 he was taken out of retirement to fill Torcelli's seat who resigned in a corruption scandal. he started to serve with Jon Corzine who ran for and is now governor, Which was Vacated by Jim Mcgrevey who resigned after being outed. Bob Menendez took over Corzine's seat in 2005. In 2006 he faced tough election against Tom Kean. Kean is the only Republican in the state who could beat Lautenberg. Otherwise the GOP has No shot at his seat. Safe Democrat



GOP held Seats-
NY-26- Tom Rennyolds anounced his retirement. Everyone hated him after being linked with both the Foley and Ney Scandals. that is probably why he retired. in 2006 he came a way with a miraculous 51-49 win. Though the PVI is R+3 the democrats have a decent shot. Tilt Democrat Pickup

MD-1 popular Rep. Gilchrest retired his last election was 69-31 so Dems aren't holding there
breath. the PVI is R+10 Favored GOP Hold

PA-3- the GOP sliped away with a 1 point win in 2006. the Dems have a very good shot the PVI is D+2. to spite that the GOP wants to keep the seat badly. Lean GOP Hold

NJ-7 Ferguson retired and the PVI is only R+1. He only won by 3 in 2006. Tilt GOP hold

NY-25- Jim Walsh is retiring. his victory in 2006 was 51-49 and had he retired then it would have turned blue. the PVI is D+3 and the district is right next to Rennolds. Lean Dem Pickup

NJ-3- Saxton is retiring he was very popular in his district but it has a PVI of D+3 (factoring in his large victories). Tilt Dem Pickup



Democratic held seats
NY-19- John Hall won an upset 52-48 in 2006. the districts PVI is R+1. He is in risk but has a good re-election shot Lean Dem Hold

NY-20 this was the site of a 53-47. Democratic Pickup in 2006 the PVI is R+3. but that was pre-2008.Favored Democratic Hold

NY-24- PVI R+1, Democratic Pick up in 06 54-45. Favored Dem Hold

PA-4- Dem Pickup in '06 52-48, PVI R+3 Freshman hoping to hold on Lean Democratic hold

PA-10- Another freshman congressman hoping to hold on. Carney won 53-47 in 2006 but the PVI is R+8. He could become another John Berrow if he wins where he is never safe but tends to win. Tilt GOP Pickup
Summary-

Presidential
Mid Atl. S: Obama 44 McCain 0 F: Obama 47 McCain 0 L; Obama 47 McCain 0 Tossup: 36
USA TD Safe: Obama 70 McCain 0 F: Obama 81 McCain 0 L: Obama 81 McCain 0 Tossup: 36

Senate:
M. Atlantic S: D 2 R 0 L: D 2 R 0 tossup 0
USA to date S: D 44 R 26 L: D 44 R: 27 Tossup 0

Governors-
Mid Atl. S: D 1 R 0 L: D 1 R 0
Nation to date S: D 24 R 18 L: D24 R 18 Tossup 0
House:
Mid Atlantic: S:D 41 R 17 F: D 43 R 18 L: D 47 R 19 T: D 49 R 21
USA to Date: S: D 57 R 17 F: D 62 R 18 L: D 69 R 19 T: D 71 R 21

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