Friday, October 10, 2008

Republican Party in Free fall, Early Voting

Today is the last day that I will Rate all four Races at the same time. These will be my last ratings on the House before my Final Call. I would like to point out one thing while I do this: THE GOP IS IN FREE FALL.

Stuart Rothenburg is warning of a "GOP Blood Bath" and Charlie Cook have moved his Predictions in the house 10 seats to the left. Chris Cilliza now thinks that the democrats are within striking distance of 60 seats in the senate. Polls are starting to show hints of an Obama land slide and Similar sensations in the senate and the house. Further More early voting (Particularly in Georgia) shows that the electorate has changed. I would not rule out an Obama 18-20 point win.

Let's Talk about early Voting: In Georgia 39% of the early voting electorate was black. If that were to stay consistant Obama would only need 12-19% of the White vote to take the state. I expect Obama to take 25-40% of the white vote in the south. In Ohio 30,000 People have took Part in Early Voting, 5,000 of those Registered at their polling place which means at least 18% are first time voters (Probably closer to 25%) as opposed to just 11% in 2004. If these stay consistant Obama could be in for a very good election night.

I have also Decided that I will have two final predictions. The first one: the official one (my Final Call) will be conservative and assume that the electorate has not changed much since 2004, The other will be a liberal estimate and assume that the electorate has Changed. Think of the second one as a back up.

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