Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Iowa Final Call (Republicans)

Iowa is tomorrow. polls close at 9:00 EST / 6:00 PST Yesterday I told you why I think Obama will win tomorrow, Today is my Predictions for the Republicans:

Final Poll:
Huckabee 32%
Romney 26%

Romney Peak 8/18/07
Romney 33%
Guliani 14%

Huckabee Peak 12/06/07
Huckabee 39%
Romney 17%

Favorable / unfavorable
Huckabee 40% / 47% (- 7%)
Romney 38% / 51% (- 13%)

2000 Results
Bush 36%
Forbes 31%
Keyes 14%
Bauer 9%
McCain 4%

X-factors
1) Republicans want the more Conservative candidate
2) no 15% thresh hold rule
3) Huckabee supporters are Passionate
4) The republican caucus is much shorter than the democrats

Final Call (Prediction)
Huckabee 36%
Romney 34%
Thompson 15%
McCain 8%
Paul 4%
Gulani 2%
Hunter 1%


Tomorrow I will Post 3 post 1 Iowa results and Analysis for each party and 1 looking ahead to New Hampshire.

No comments: