Breaking News- Michigan and Florida Resolved

The RBC of the DNC ruled that Michigan and Florida would be broken up in the following manor:
(1) Each Delegate from each gets 1/2 of a vote
(2) Obama will get the Uncommitted Delegates in Michigan
(3) the Delegates in Michigan will be Allocated: Clinton 69 Obama 59 in respect to people who did not vote because Obama was not on the Ballot
(4) Michigan's votes to the convention will be Clinton 34.5 Obama 29.5
(5) the Florida Votes to the convention will be Clinton 52.5 Obama 33.5

The New Magic Number is 2118. The new delegate count is
Obama 2050.5
Clinton 1877.5

A Clinton Supporter mentioned that she Reserves the right to take it to Denver. I think it will be over by the end of the week.

Breaking News- Florida To Get 1/2 votes at Convention

Today the rules and bylaws comity are meeting in Washington DC. Right now they are on their lunch break and will resume at 4:15 EST / 1:15 PST in about 30 minuets. Both Campaigns have agreed that Florida delegates will get 1/2 of their vote making the count from Florida:
Clinton 52.5
Obama 33.5
Though they have not yet officially voted it is highly expected that the RBC of the DNC will agree to this compromise. that makes the new national delegate count:
Obama 2018
Clinton 1836
the new Magic number (Until they Resolve Michigan in 1-2 hours) is 2069. There are 7 proposals for Michigan
#1- Count the vote as is
Clinton 73
Uncommitted 55
#2- Split the Votes 50-50
Clinton 64
Obama 64
#3- Compromise Between #1 & #2
Clinton 69
Obama 59
#4- Count the Votes whole but give uncommitted to Obama
Clinton 73
Obama 55
#5- Give Michigan 1/2 the vote as is
Clinton 36.5
Uncommitted 27.5
#6- Give Michigan 1/2 the vote with Uncommitted going to Obama
Clinton 36.5
Obama 27.5
#7- Don't Count the Vote at all
Clinton 0
Obama 0

Clinton Supporters are saying the Uncommitted vote is likely to go to Obama. I don't think Obama Supporters will buy it.

House Ratings/Predictions

It would be way too tedious and way too complex to show you why I rated each House race the way I did. I used Incumbant election in 2006, The Bush-Kerry 2004 Results, The PVI (Partisan Voting Index), Background of some races, Special election Results, CQ, Cook political and Rothenberg Ratings and when Available polls. in most of my ratings I only use Background info and polls. The house is a complected animal. the Obama-Clinton race is helping a lot of first term democrats who would otherwise have to fight for re-election. For Example Sestack And Murphy are now very unlikely to loose their seat, they won by narrow Margins in 2006. Here are My ratings of Districts to watch
Safe Democrat (215):
AZ-5
PA-4
PA-10
NH-2
PA-7
FL-22
IN-2
IN-8

Favored Democrat (222):
AL-5
IN-7
MA-5
CT-2
CT-5
PA-8
IL-11

Lean Democrat (237):
AZ-8
IL-14
MS-1
OR-5
KY-3
GA-12
IN-9
WI-8
AL-2
AK-AL
NY-25
CO-4
AZ-1
NJ-3
NJ-7

Tossup Tilt Democrat (253):
NH-1
LA-6
KS-2
CA-11
GA-8
NM-1
NC-8
WY-AL
NJ-5
OH-5
OH-15
OH-16
CT-4
VA-11
WA-8
NY-26

Tossup Tilt Republican (162):
AZ-3
MN-3
MI-9
NV-2
OH-1
TX-22
FL-16

Lean Republican (155):
MO-6
VA-2
MI-7
NV-3

Favored Republican (151)
FL-13
MD-1
OH-2
CA-50

Safe Republican (147):
IL-10
NY-29

My Overall Characterization of the house is Safe Democrat. I'm Sure a few more races will dribble down this way from Safe GOP. Many Incumbents Thought to be safe May loose. I Would Keep my eye on any of the 56 Races in the Lean or Tossup Categories. My honest Guess would be that the democrats will get some where from 245-285 Seats in the next house. 291 is the number needed to break a veto I would say that Leans GOP, but do not rule out a democratic Veto-proof Majority. Here is My Map of Pickups (light Blue/Light Purple =1 Pickup Medium Blue/Light Red= 2-3 pickups)

Michigan Changes from Obama to McCain

I am moving Michigan in my predictions from Obama to McCain. Obama's 1 point lead has turned to a McCain 2 point lead in polls and Obama has not been there yet. this changes my electoral count from Obama 317-221 to Obama 300-238

New Senate Poll check and Ratings

I will complete my tour with new House ratings tomorrow, Today it's the senate.

The 60 seat scenario for the democrats has risen from the ashes. 60 seats is not just possible but a distinct possibility. A new poll today has Mitch McConnell loosing in Kentucky.
Here are the Polls in competitive and formerly competitive races (*- Incumbent #- Incumbent party):
AL Sessions* (R) 57%- Figures (D) 36%
AK Begich (D) 47.5%- Stevens* (R) 44%
CO Udall (D) 47%- Shaffer# (R) 41%
GA Chambliss* (R) 54%- Knight (D) 33%
KY McConnell* (R) 46%- Landsford (D) 42.5%
LA Landriue* (D) 50%- Kennedy (R) 38%
ME Collins* (R) 52%- Allen (D) 42%
MN Coleman* (R) 47%- Frankin (D) 45%
MS Wicker* (R) 46%- Musgrove (D) 42%
NE Johanns# (R) 55%- Keleb (D) 40%
NH Shaheen (D) 48%- Sununu* 38.5%
NJ Laintenberg* (D) 54%- Pinnacchio 36%
NM Udall (D) 53%- (R) Wilson# 37%
NC Dole*(R) 47.5%- Hagan (D) 44.5%
OR Smith*(R) 48%- Merlky (D) 45%
SD Johnson* 63% (D)- Dykstra (R) 28%
TX Cornyn* (R) 48%- Noriaga (D) 44%
VA Warner (D) 55%- Gilmour (R) 37%
Here are my ratings of Races to watch:
Safe Dem ( 51D,2R 53T)
LA
SD
NJ
VA
NM
Lean Dem (3R,0D 56T)
AK
CO
NH
Tossup (6R,0D Senate: Dem 60 GOP 40
OR Tilt R
MN tilt D
TX Tilt R
MS Tilt D
NC Tilt D
KY Tilt D
Lean GOP (2R,0D T38)
NE
ME
Safe GOP (36)
AL
GA
TN (no Polling Data Listed)

The GOP will not win the senate. My overall Categorization of the senate is Safe Democrat.
the 60 seat majority is a Tossup. There are now six GOP tossups and 5 that are in the Democrats category. Keep your eye on all six of those tossups. If Harold Ford enters the senate race in Tennessee it will become competitive. Watch Georgia, it could become competitive soon. Maine and Nebraska could become Competitive with the right circumstance the Veto-proof majority could potentially come into play. I am estimating 9 Democratic Pickups right now. that range is not 3-5 as some say, it's more like 5-11. if the Steven's scandal becomes worse he could move to safe ground and Sununu could by just being himself. if Udall (NM) helps his cousin in CO it could as well move onto safe Ground. Landriue, Launtenberg and Johnson are all out of the hot seat. The GOP will Likely pick up no seats. the main head line though is that the number to watch is 60 not 51.

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

I have new numbers from the presidential race. I have finished rating the house and will post it ASAP. Here are the polls in competitive and formerly Competitive states:
AK: McCain By 7
AR: McCain By 24
CO: Obama By 6
FL: McCain By 4
IN: Obama By 4.5
IA: Obama By 5
MI: Obama By 0.5
MN: Obama By 15
MO: McCain By 3
MT: McCain By 6.5
NE: McCain By 11
NV: McCain By 6
NH: Obama By 5
NJ: Obama By 24
NM: Obama By 4.5
NC: McCain By 5
ND: McCain By 1
OH: Obama By 4
OR: Obama By 14
PA: Obama by 7
SC: McCain by 3
SD: McCain by 7
TN: McCain by 27
TX: McCain by 9
VA: Obama by 7
WA: Obama by 11
WV: McCain by 18
WI: Obama by 7These are my new ratings:
(note error: PA should be light blue, GA should be Dark Red)
Safe McCain (109 EV)
AL
AZ
AR
GA
ID
KS
KY
LA
MS
NE
OK
TN
UT
WV
WY
Lean McCain (149 EV)
AK
SD
TX
Tossup (Bush 94 Kerry 17):
NV
MT
ND
MO
IN
VA
NC
SC
FL
MI
Lean Obama (276 EV)
WI
PA
NH
OH
IA
CO
NM
Safe Obama (200EV)
WA
CA
OR
MN
IL
DC
DE
MD
NY
VT
RI
CT
MA
ME

My Over all Characterization of the race is Leaning Obama (Democratic). I Predict that one state in the deep south will surprise us (AL,GA,MS & LA) and become competitive Possibly due to Barr effect. Watch those four states. Virginia, Indiana and Florida may be
more directly impacted by it. Ohio has Begun to show strength for Obama. Missouri is becoming a tossup again, Some things never change. All but one tossup are red states. The EV count of the tossups in '04 was Bush 96 Kerry 17. Obama has new comanding leads in Minisoda, Washington and Organ (28 EV's) as Opposed to McCain's new expanded lead in Nebraska (5 EV). Survey USA is polling VP match ups between Obama and McCain and so far Obama-Edwards has not Been beaten. Acording to the Data Huckabee is the best VP for McCain. If the election were today it would be: Obama 317 to McCain's 221 and Obama with about a 52-47-1 win in the popular vote. Here is my map with tilts
I will release my senate ratings soon.

Libertarian convention

Bob Barr has won the libertarian over Mike Gravel. What relevance does this have, you ask?
Bob Barr will not win in November plain and simple but there is one thing he can do in November: help Obama out in the south. Here is my estimation of the % of votes he needs in each state to Potentially make Obama win or be extremely competitive(*- Obama leads in the state):
KY 23%
TN 27%
AR 24%
LA 9%
MS 12%
AL 16%
GA 13%
FL 3%
TX 6%
SC 2%
NC 5%
VA* 1%
WV 18%
OK 20%
IN* 1%

These numbers are only Obtainable in six states TX, FL, SC, NC,VA &IN

New Governors poll check and Ratings

I am working on the House Ratings they are going to take up to 5 days so in the mean
time I'll release my 3 other Ratings.
here is my Poll check for the Governors
DE- democrat Presumed safe
IN- (D) Thompson 47% (R) Daniels 45.5%
MO- (D) Nixon 48% (R) Hulshoff 37%
MT- (D) Shwitzer 55% (R) Brown 30%
NH- (D) Lynch 62% (R) Guinta 20%
NC- (D) Purdue 47.5% (R) McCroy 43.5%
ND-Hoeven (R) Presumed Safe
UT- (R) Huntsman 65% (R) Ashdown 18%
VT- (R) Douglas 53% (D) Glabrith 32%
WV- Manchin (D) Presumed safe
WA- (D) Georgie 52% (R) Rossi 44%

My Over all Caricaturization of the 2008 Governors elections is Leaning Democratic. At the current moment it looks like the democrats will pick up Missouri and Indiana. Indiana is the tossup of the day. Keep your eye on North Carolina. the Purdue (D) leads by only 4 points, But NC is Trending left. an Edwards Vice Presidency could cause the race to become more liberal. Here are as Promised My Ratings:
Safe Dem (26 D, 0 R)
WV
NH
MT
DE
Lean Dem (2 D, 1 R)
NC
WA
MO
Tossup (0D, 1R)
IN
Lean GOP (0D, 0R)

Safe GOP
UT
ND
VT
Here is my Map. ND is supposed to be darker. Here are the Ratings by Numbers

Safe
Dem 26
GOP 20

Lean
Dem 29
GOP 20

Tilt
Dem 30
GOP 20

OR, KY Primary Results, Editorial: The Kennedy Family

OR & KY split as expected here are the results:
OR
Obama 58%
Clinton 42%
KY
Clinton 64%
Obama 30%
Obama has now clinched the pledged delegate lead and at the moment is the presumptive nominee. He will now be listed in bold.

THE KENNEDY FAMILY
What family has served this nation better than the Kennedy's? What family has sacrificed more for their country than the Kennedy's? who has put themselves in more danger to serve their people than the Kennedy's ? what family has dreamed a better dream than the Kennedy's ?

Over the years three of Joe's four sons have died serving this great nation. Joe Jr. was killed in WWII when his plane was shot down, John Was Murdered as president of the united states, Robert was shot trying to become president. You all know all of this already I'm Sure.

Yesterday I feel Hilary Clinton, in the sickest display yet of her campaign exploited these tragedies for political gain. That is quiet possibly the greatest sin any politician can commit, exploiting someones personal tragedies for political gain. Invoking the RFK assassination into this race is dangerous by any means. Not just Dangerous politically but personally dangerous to any candidate in the race. There is a silent fear to all good Americans that one of these candidates could be assassinated the way RFK was, That the for the same reason that RFK was Murdered in cold blood their candidate or either off the others may face the same fate. and why was RFK killed? to kill the dream that he had, to kill the hope that all Kennedy supporters had of a better America likely for the election of one Richard Nixon. Had RFK survived we would almost positively not be in this place right now. any one who Identifies them self with Robert Kennedy as I do (I call My self a "Robert Kennedy Democrat") should be appalled. any one who has ever seen that dream or any dream quite literally shot dead should be Angry. any one who has ever studied any political assassination in the slightest detail should be sickened, and any one who has heard the now days old news about his last surviving brother should be outraged to say the least.

Ted is now faced with life threatening Cancer. We are faced with the possible tragedy of not just loosing a great man of loosing the dream he had along side his Brothers. needless to say I wish his recovery and wish him all the luck in the world as he goes through this tough road ahead. That being said We Can not let his dream die regardless of his survival. The only tragedy greater than loosing the man is loosing the dream with the man. I was not alive when Either of his brothers were murdered, my age group only knows this dream through him and a few other Kennedy-esq politicians. we need to ensure that the dream will not die with the man, weather he dies today or 40 years from now. Get well, Ted, God Speed.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I will release my ratings as promised on all four fronts as soon as I finish rating the house.

WV Results, Edwards, Obama & McCain VP picks, KY & OR Final Call

I'd Like to wish Senator Kennedy to get well, gods speed.

Hillary Clinton as expected won West Virginia:
Clinton 67%
Obama 26%
Edwards Ore 7%
this really means nothing because she will not be the nominee.

Edwards Made the second biggest endorsement of this primary season (Second only to the Kennedy Families endorsement of Obama). Edwards Endorsed Obama on Wednesday which
in effect nullified the WV results. The Clinton People are Finally coming to terms with her loss. Edwards has in a sense Ratified Obama as the Nominee.

Obama's VP top 10 VP picks Probably look something like this:
1. John Edwards (D-NC)
2. Kathleen Sabillius (D-KS)
3. Tom Dachel (D-SD)
4. Michal Bloomberg (I-NY)
5. Russ Fiengold (D-WI)
6. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI)
7. Bill Richardson (D-NM)
8. Chris Dodd (D-CT)
9. James Clyburn (D-OH)
10. Chuck Haggle (R-NE)

McCains Probably Looks Like this:
1. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
2.Charlie Christ (R-FL)
3. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)
4. Rudy Guliani (R-NY)
5. Fred Thompson (R-TN)
6. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
7. John Sununu (R-NH)
8. John Boyner (R-OH)
9. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
10. George Pataki (R-NY) / Chuck Haggle (R-NE)

My Final Call for Tuesday are:
OR
Obama 58%
Clinton 42%
KY
Clinton 64%
Obama 36%

I have New Ratings on all three fronts I will release them when I talk about the OR & KY Results. Once Again I hope Senator Kennedy will Get Well, Gods Speed.

Indiana, North Carolina Results, Super Delegates, West Virginia Final Call, Govorners Ratings

Two States had Primaries last week, Indiana and North Carolina. The Media has practically called the nomination for Obama in the wake of these, something I did after Wisconsin on 2/19. Here were the Results:
North Carolina
Obama 58%
Clinton 42%
Indiana
Clinton 51%
Obama 49%

Since these two primaries Obama has taken the lead in super delegates the CNN Numbers show:
Obama 277
Clinton 273
Obama will undoubtedly be the nominee

Despite this Hillary Clinton still holds a huge lead in West Virginia (polls showing her with a 29-46 point lead) My final Call for The primary is:
Clinton 64%
Obama 36%

Gaum Results (who really cares?), IN & NC Final Call

In Gaum there was a primary over the weekend. the delegates will be split 2-2. It was, In raw vote count, the closest election of my life time.
Obama 50% (+7 votes)
Clinton 50%
This will have a very Minimal effect on the outcome of the election.


I am making my final calls right now. my Averages are In IN Obama 44-42 (just the Zogby) In NC Obama 49.3-41.3 (Zogby+Rassmusen+Research 2000) And so here are my Final calls
NC
Obama 56%
Clinton 44%
IN
Obama 51%
Clinton 49%

IN,NC Polls, New Senate Ratings

First things first lets look at the Presidential race:
In Indiana Hillary Clinton Appears to have taken a slight lead over Obama . If she wins she will stay in the race. Obama however still has a weekend to stop her momentum. She is still far behind in NC, Lets take a look at the Rasmussen + Zogby numbers:
NC
Obama 49.5%
Clinton 37%
IN
Clinton 44%
Obama 41.5%
IN will be close Obama should take NC easily

Senate
We have started to see the senate races Begin to become serious. Barring a scandal or two we now know basically what the competitive races will be. Mary Landreu has taken an advantage in Louisiana. Mitch McConell has not yet found major competition but the Dems could bring him down. Here are my Ratings (Pickups in Bold ,Lean and Tossups are ordered based on Likeliness to go Dem, *- Special election):
Safe Democrat
MA
RI
NJ
DE
WV
VA
MI
IA
IL
AR
NM
SD
MT
Lean Democrat
NH
LA
Tossup
CO (Tilt Dem)
AK
MN
MS* (Tilt GOP)
Lean GOP
KY (Reserved)
OR
NC
TX
ME
Safe GOP
ID
WY
WY*
MS
NE
KS
OK
TN
GA
SC
AL

Safe
Dem 52
GOP 37
Lean
Dem 54
GOP 42
Tilt
Dem 55
GOP 43
Pure Tossup 2