House Ratings/Predictions

It would be way too tedious and way too complex to show you why I rated each House race the way I did. I used Incumbant election in 2006, The Bush-Kerry 2004 Results, The PVI (Partisan Voting Index), Background of some races, Special election Results, CQ, Cook political and Rothenberg Ratings and when Available polls. in most of my ratings I only use Background info and polls. The house is a complected animal. the Obama-Clinton race is helping a lot of first term democrats who would otherwise have to fight for re-election. For Example Sestack And Murphy are now very unlikely to loose their seat, they won by narrow Margins in 2006. Here are My ratings of Districts to watch
Safe Democrat (215):
AZ-5
PA-4
PA-10
NH-2
PA-7
FL-22
IN-2
IN-8

Favored Democrat (222):
AL-5
IN-7
MA-5
CT-2
CT-5
PA-8
IL-11

Lean Democrat (237):
AZ-8
IL-14
MS-1
OR-5
KY-3
GA-12
IN-9
WI-8
AL-2
AK-AL
NY-25
CO-4
AZ-1
NJ-3
NJ-7

Tossup Tilt Democrat (253):
NH-1
LA-6
KS-2
CA-11
GA-8
NM-1
NC-8
WY-AL
NJ-5
OH-5
OH-15
OH-16
CT-4
VA-11
WA-8
NY-26

Tossup Tilt Republican (162):
AZ-3
MN-3
MI-9
NV-2
OH-1
TX-22
FL-16

Lean Republican (155):
MO-6
VA-2
MI-7
NV-3

Favored Republican (151)
FL-13
MD-1
OH-2
CA-50

Safe Republican (147):
IL-10
NY-29

My Overall Characterization of the house is Safe Democrat. I'm Sure a few more races will dribble down this way from Safe GOP. Many Incumbents Thought to be safe May loose. I Would Keep my eye on any of the 56 Races in the Lean or Tossup Categories. My honest Guess would be that the democrats will get some where from 245-285 Seats in the next house. 291 is the number needed to break a veto I would say that Leans GOP, but do not rule out a democratic Veto-proof Majority. Here is My Map of Pickups (light Blue/Light Purple =1 Pickup Medium Blue/Light Red= 2-3 pickups)