Wednesday, May 28, 2008

New Senate Poll check and Ratings

I will complete my tour with new House ratings tomorrow, Today it's the senate.

The 60 seat scenario for the democrats has risen from the ashes. 60 seats is not just possible but a distinct possibility. A new poll today has Mitch McConnell loosing in Kentucky.
Here are the Polls in competitive and formerly competitive races (*- Incumbent #- Incumbent party):
AL Sessions* (R) 57%- Figures (D) 36%
AK Begich (D) 47.5%- Stevens* (R) 44%
CO Udall (D) 47%- Shaffer# (R) 41%
GA Chambliss* (R) 54%- Knight (D) 33%
KY McConnell* (R) 46%- Landsford (D) 42.5%
LA Landriue* (D) 50%- Kennedy (R) 38%
ME Collins* (R) 52%- Allen (D) 42%
MN Coleman* (R) 47%- Frankin (D) 45%
MS Wicker* (R) 46%- Musgrove (D) 42%
NE Johanns# (R) 55%- Keleb (D) 40%
NH Shaheen (D) 48%- Sununu* 38.5%
NJ Laintenberg* (D) 54%- Pinnacchio 36%
NM Udall (D) 53%- (R) Wilson# 37%
NC Dole*(R) 47.5%- Hagan (D) 44.5%
OR Smith*(R) 48%- Merlky (D) 45%
SD Johnson* 63% (D)- Dykstra (R) 28%
TX Cornyn* (R) 48%- Noriaga (D) 44%
VA Warner (D) 55%- Gilmour (R) 37%
Here are my ratings of Races to watch:
Safe Dem ( 51D,2R 53T)
Lean Dem (3R,0D 56T)
Tossup (6R,0D Senate: Dem 60 GOP 40
OR Tilt R
MN tilt D
TX Tilt R
MS Tilt D
NC Tilt D
KY Tilt D
Lean GOP (2R,0D T38)
Safe GOP (36)
TN (no Polling Data Listed)

The GOP will not win the senate. My overall Categorization of the senate is Safe Democrat.
the 60 seat majority is a
Tossup. There are now six GOP tossups and 5 that are in the Democrats category. Keep your eye on all six of those tossups. If Harold Ford enters the senate race in Tennessee it will become competitive. Watch Georgia, it could become competitive soon. Maine and Nebraska could become Competitive with the right circumstance the Veto-proof majority could potentially come into play. I am estimating 9 Democratic Pickups right now. that range is not 3-5 as some say, it's more like 5-11. if the Steven's scandal becomes worse he could move to safe ground and Sununu could by just being himself. if Udall (NM) helps his cousin in CO it could as well move onto safe Ground. Landriue, Launtenberg and Johnson are all out of the hot seat. The GOP will Likely pick up no seats. the main head line though is that the number to watch is 60 not 51.

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