Monday, May 26, 2008

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

I have new numbers from the presidential race. I have finished rating the house and will post it ASAP. Here are the polls in competitive and formerly Competitive states:
AK: McCain By 7
AR: McCain By 24
CO: Obama By 6
FL: McCain By 4
IN: Obama By 4.5
IA: Obama By 5
MI: Obama By 0.5
MN: Obama By 15
MO: McCain By 3
MT: McCain By 6.5
NE: McCain By 11
NV: McCain By 6
NH: Obama By 5
NJ: Obama By 24
NM: Obama By 4.5
NC: McCain By 5
ND: McCain By 1
OH: Obama By 4
OR: Obama By 14
PA: Obama by 7
SC: McCain by 3
SD: McCain by 7
TN: McCain by 27
TX: McCain by 9
VA: Obama by 7
WA: Obama by 11
WV: McCain by 18
WI: Obama by 7These are my new ratings:
(note error: PA should be light blue, GA should be Dark Red)
Safe McCain (109 EV)
AL
AZ
AR
GA
ID
KS
KY

LA
MS
NE
OK

TN
UT
WV
WY
Lean McCain (149 EV)
AK
SD
TX
Tossup (Bush 94 Kerry 17):

NV
MT
ND
MO
IN
VA
NC
SC
FL
MI

Lean Obama (276 EV)
WI
PA
NH
OH
IA
CO
NM

Safe Obama
(200EV)
WA

CA
OR
MN
IL
DC

DE
MD
NY
VT
RI
CT
MA

ME

My Over all Characterization of the race is Leaning Obama (Democratic). I Predict that
one state in the deep south will surprise us (AL,GA,MS & LA) and become competitive Possibly due to Barr effect. Watch those four states. Virginia, Indiana and Florida may be
more directly impacted by it. Ohio has Begun to show strength for Obama. Missouri is becoming a tossup again, Some things never change. All but one tossup are red states. The EV count of the tossups in '04 was Bush 96 Kerry 17. Obama has new comanding leads in Minisoda, Washington and Organ (28 EV's) as Opposed to McCain's new expanded lead in Nebraska (5 EV). Survey USA is polling VP match ups between Obama and McCain and so far Obama-Edwards has not Been beaten. Acording to the Data Huckabee is the best VP for McCain. If the election were today it would be: Obama 317 to McCain's 221 and Obama with
about a 52-47-1 win in the popular vote. Here is my map with tilts
I will release my senate ratings soon.

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