New Senate Poll check and Ratings

Poll Check
LA- Landriue (D) By 6
NJ-Launtenberg (D) by 15
AK-Begich (D) by 17
CO- Udall (D) By 7
KS-Roberts (R) by 28
KY-McConell (R) by 9.3
ME-Collins (R) by 10
MN- Coleman (R) by 6
MS- Wicker (R) by 5
NH- Shaheen (D) by 14
NM-Udall (D) by 27.3
NC- Dole (R) by 8.5
OR- Smith (R) by 3
TX- Cornyn (R) by 4.5
VA- Warner (D) by 24

Ratings:
Strong Dem (55: 50 D 5 R)
NJ
AK
CO
VA
NM
NH

Lean Dem (56: 51 D 5 R)
LA

Tilt Dem (57: 51 D 6 R)
MS

Tilt GOP (43: 43 R)
TX
OR
MN

Lean GOP (40: 40R)
NC
KY
ME

Strong GOP (37: 37 R)
KS

Taken Off Watch: Kansas
Races To Watch: Oregon, Mississippi & Minnesota

Mississippi is an interesting race. The seat opened when Trent Lott Resigned. Watch the African American Turn out. 42% of Mississippi is black and if they turn out and vote, the Democrats Will do better than they are polling.

Gordon Smith is a Moderate Republican, He has ran adds Praising Obama and has not yet endorsed McCain. Some could argue that he votes with the democrats the majority of the time. this race will stay close. His Chalenger Merleky was ahead for a short time. My guess is that smith will come out the winner but it's any ones game.

Minnesota is Fluctuating. Franken wasn't helped much by the Edwards Affair (Edwards Campaigned with him earlier in the week) but it should have a slim to nil effect. it will fluctuate right up till the end. it's way too early to make any predictions on this race.

House Ratings

Safe Dem ( 208: 207 D, 1 R)
CO-3
VT-AL
NH-2
MN-1
IN-7
CA-18
CA-20
PA-10
FL-22
AR-1
AR-2
AR-3
CA-47
KS-2
VA-11

Favored Dem (221: 216 D 5 R)
KY-3
AL-5
OH-18
CT-2
CT-5
CO-7
IN-8
AZ-8
IN-2
IL-11
NY-13
NY-25
AZ-1

Lean Dem (242: 231 D 11 R)
MA-5
NH-1
OR-5
WI-8
IL-14
IN-9
MS-1
IA-2
IA-3
TX-23
IL-8
PA-4
PA-8
NY-20
NY-19
OH-16
OH-15
CO-4
AK-AL
AL-2
NJ-3

Tilt Dem (256: 234 D 22R)
PA-11
CA-11
FL-16
PA-3
NJ-7
MI-7
WY-AL
CA-4
NV-3
AZ-3
KY-2
NC-8
CT-4
NY-26

Tilt GOP (179: 177 R 2 D)
FL-21
FL-25
NJ-5
MN-3
WA-8
TX-10
OH-1
OH-2
FL-8
IL-6
LA-4
MO-6
TX-22
LA-6

Lean GOP (163: 163 R 0 D)
FL-13
MD-1
NY-29
TN-7
NC-10
TX-32
OH-7
OH-5
MN-6
NE-2
ID-1
MI-8
MI-9
MI-11
WA-5
PA-6
PA-15
WV-2
FL-9
FL-15
CA-26

Favored GOP (141: 141 R 0 D)
FL-24
CA-50
IL-10
KY-4
CO-6
NV-2
NM-2
AZ-2
MO-9
IN-3
IL-10
IL-13
IL-15
IL-17
OH-3
OH-4
CA-44
CA-45
CA-46
NY-3
AL-3
IA-4
VA-5
VA-10
FL-18

Safe GOP (116: 116R 0D)
MI-3
MI-6
CA-3

Obama VP's - Down to four (Three Really)

he shortlist has been leaked and there are four names left on it:

4. Sen. Evan Bahy (D-IN)

Now the only thing I know about the selection at this point is that it will not be Evan Bahy for two Reasons. 1) He's boring 2) If Obama wins and the Democrats get to 60 the governor of Indiana (Likely to remain Republican) will choose his replacement which means The GOP could Filibuster. Bahy will not be the choice

3.Gov. Tim Kane (D-VA)

At first when making my list, of 10 and then 7, I took off Tim Kane because I thought he was not well known enough. Obama think different. Kane is extremely charismatic and Powerful. Kane would be an excellent counter to the now likely McCain Pick of Eric Cantor. Kane could help bring Virginia and maybe North Carolina.

2. Gov. Kathleen Sabillius (D-KS)

Sabillius is a good choice. She could help with some Clinton supporters who wanted to see a woman in office. She makes it harder for McCain to use the Experience argument against Obama. She is fully able to be Vice President. She Can help in the Midwest, in states like MT, ND, SD, CO, IA, MO NM and NV. However, she is a risky choice. Racism and Sexism could prove difficult to overcome. The McCain Campaign could still bash them on foreign policy.

1. Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE)

I feel Biden is the by far the best choice Obama has. He is the one of the most qualified people in politics to be Vice President. He brings foreign policy experience. He has been a major critic of Bush and his Cronies. He will make almost every one more likely to vote for Obama. He is Respected by almost every one, he has a high approval rating. some people say he doesn't help with the map but I dis agree. I see him helping in states Like MN,MI,WI,PA,OH,VA and CO. I think Biden will help make all Democrats and Liberal Independents feel better and make them More Likely to Vote. I feel Biden should, and is likely to be the VP.

McCain's VP-down to eight

McCain is expected to announce his Veep this week and put an end to at least half of the Veep stakes. I am going to say that it will be one of the eight following people:

8. John Sununu (R-NH) Net: 0
Pro's: Mod. Republican helps with Independents
Con's: He can barely even keep his senate seat. Don't Expect them to Take NH with Sununu
7.Rudy Guiliani (R-NY) Net -1
Pro's: Beloved around the country
Con's:
1) no Experience
2) Sentence consist of "a noun and a verb and 9/11"
6. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) Net -1
Pro's: he can't hurt him
Con's:
1) No charisma
2) wont help him take MN
5. Charlie Christ (R-FL) net: +2
Pro's:
1) Helps in Florida
2) High approval
3) Moderate, Helps with ind.
Con's: Only helps in florida
4. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) net +1
Pro's:
1)Ultra Conservative, helps them come out to the polls.
2) Helps emphasize foreign Policy
Con's: will piss off democrats and Indy's
3. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) Net: -3
Pro's:
1) helps in the north east
2) Democrat's Veep in 2000
Con's:
1) no charisma
2) will piss every one off
3) used to be a democrat
4) the "Kiss of Death"
5) Won't help win any big states
2. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) net +4
Pro's:
1) the Second Place showing
2) Helps with Conservatives
3) Helps with Moderates
4) Most electable Veep by far
5) Helps GOP keep the south
Con's: a "Religious whack"
1.Mitt Romney (R-MA) net +1
Pro's:
1) Helps in Michigan and Colorado
2) Ultra Conservative
3) almost became GOP Nominee
4) Really "Chummy" with McCain
Con's:
1) Ultra Conservative, Hated by Liberals and Indy's
2) Mormonism
3) says things like "some people say we ought to close Gauntanimo, I say we ought to double Gautanimo."

McCain VP Picks- Down to 14

these are my 14 potential McCain Veeps:

Highly Likely (83% chance it will be one of the four):
Mitt Romney
Mike Huckabee
Joe Leiberman
Lindsey Graham

Somewhat Likely (9% chance it will be one of the two)
Charlie Christ
David Patrayus


Unlikely (7% it will be one of the 8)
Tim Pawlenty
Norm Coleman
Rob Portman
John Sununu
Fred Thompson
Rudy Guiliani
Jim Demint
Rick Perry

Obama VP picks- down to seven

I have taken three names off the potential Obama VP list. Richardson would run into too many problems, Haggle would likely be rejected at the convention and I finally Decided to Take off Clark for his Comments about McCain.
Here is my seven:

Most Likely to be picked (90% chance it will be one of the two):
Joe Biden
John Edwards

Unlikely Choices (8% chance it will be one of the three):
Bob Graham
Russ Fiengold
Tom Daschel

Very Unlikely Choices (1% chance it will be one of the two)
Sam Nunn
Kathleen Sabbillius

My Obama VP Tournament

In my last post I announced the 10 people who I feel are able to be VP. I am Confident it will be one of those 10 people. well, Inspired by CQ and MSNBC I am having a tournament over the next few days. Because there are 10 names two will have byes in the first round (#1 John Edwards and #2 Joe Biden)
Please vote at the bottom of the page.
Here are my first round Mach ups:

Match up 1
6.Sam Nunn
7.Russ Fiengold

Match up 2
4.Bob Graham
9.Chuck Haggle

Match Up 3
3.Tom Daschel
10.Bill Richardson

Matchup 4
5.Kathleen Sabillius
8.Wes Clark