House Final Call

I am Making my final call in the House. I am putting out a list of districts that I expect to switch (AKA Pick Up's for those of you who don't know political Vocab). I expect the New House to have 264 Democrats and 171 Republicans

Democratic Pick Ups
AK-AL
AZ-1
FL-8
FL-21
FL-24
IL-10
IL-11
MI-7
MI-9
NJ-3
NJ-7
NM-1
NM-2
NY-13
NY-25
NY-29
NC-8
OH-1
OH-15
OH-16
VA-11
NV-3
CO-4
ID-1
CA-4
CA-46
MN-3
MN-6
PA-3
CT-4
WA-8

Republican Pickups
PA-11
TX-22
FL-16

Final Calls- 1 1/2 Senate 2 President

In the Senate: I am calling North Carolina for the Democrat Kay Hagan. this gives the Democrats a 58-39 Advantage. I am also Calling Georgia in a sense. If no candidate reaches 50% there will b a run off on December 2ed. No Candidate will reach 50%

I am Calling North Carolina and Florida for Obama. This put's the Count at Obama 353- McCain 132

The Following Races have yet to be Called:
Governors: NC
Senate: MN, KY, GA*
President: AZ, ND, MT, IN, MO, GA

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

Strong Obama (311)
PA*: Obama by 11
NH*: Obama by 12
WI*: Obama by 13
MN*: Obama by 16
IA*: Obama by 15
NM*: Obama by 15
VA*: Obama by 8
OH*: Obama by 7
CO*: Obama by 8
NV*: Obama by 7

Lean Obama (353)
NC*: Obama by 4
FL*: Obama by 4

Tilt Obama (375)
IN: Obama by 0.3
MO: Obama by 0.6

Tilt McCain (163)
ND: McCain by 0.2
MT: McCain by 2.5
GA: McCain by 1.5
AZ: McCain by 1.0

Lean McCain (132)
None

Strong McCain (132)
MS*: McCain by 10
SD*: McCain by 8
SC*: McCain by 9
WV*: McCain by 9

Senate Poll check And Ratings

Strong Democrat (57)
LA*: Landriue by 16
NJ*: Launtenburg by 15
VA*: Warner by 28
NM*: Udall by 18
AK*: Begich by 16
CO*: Udall by 13
NH*: Shaheen by 11
NC*: Hagan by 9

Lean Dem (58)
OR*: Merkly by 7

Tilt Dem (59)
MN: Frankin by 2.3

Special rating: Likely Runoff (1)
GA#: Chambliss by 1.3 or 47-46-6

Tilt GOP (40)
KY: McConel by 2.7

Lean GOP (39)
None

Strong GOP (39)
TX*: Cornyn by 11
MS*: Wicker by 11
ME*: Collins by 13

*- Already called
#- Georgia is called such that no candidate will reach 50% and it will thus go to a runoff on December 2ed

New Governors poll check and Ratings

Missouri*- this one has been over for a while. Nixon (D) leads by 17 points. Strong Dem

Indiana*- though people thought this might be competitive for a while it isn't Daniels leads by 16 Strong GOP

Washington*- Though this one tightened after the GOP Convention it looks like the Democrats are going to hold on. Georgie (D) leads by 5.6 Lean Democrat

North Carolina- Purdue Leads by 2.3. I'm not ready to call this one yet but it leans in th democrats Direction. Lean Democrat

*- Already Called

Called: D 28 GOP 21
Strong: D 27 GOP 21
Lean: D 29 GOP 21
Tilt: D 29 GOP 21

Final Calls

In the Presidential Race I have 2 calls; one favoring each candidate. I am calling Nevada For Obama and West Virginia for McCain this brings the electoral count to Obama 338 McCain 142

In the senate I have 3 calls. I am Calling Oregon for Merkly (D), Alaska for Begich (D) and Mississippi for Wicker (R) this brings the senate to 57 Democrats and 39 Republicans.

I am calling Washington's Governors Race for Chrisine Georgie but will keep you updated on it. that makes the count Democrats 28 Republicans 21.

I am changing my popular vote prediction to Obama 53% McCain 46% Barr 1%

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

Strong Obama (306)
PA*: Obama by 11
WI*: Obama by 12
MN*: Obama by 16
NH*: Obama by 19
IA*: Obama by 12
NM*: Obama by 11
VA*: Obama by 9
CO*: Obama by 9
OH*: Obama by 8

Lean Obama (338)
NV*: Obama by 7
FL: Obama by 4

Tilt Obama (378)
IN: Obama by 3.0
NC: Obama by 2.4
ND: Obama by 1.7
MO: Obama by 0.7

Tilt McCain (160)
MT: McCain by 0.3
GA: McCain by 1.7

Lean McCain (142)
AZ: McCain by 4

Strong McCain (132)
WV*: McCain by 8
MS*: McCain by 10
SD*: McCain by 8
AR*: McCain by 11

Senate Poll check And Ratings

Strong Democrat (56)
NJ*: Launtenburg by 19
LA*: Landriue by 16
VA*: Warner by 31
NM*: Udall by 19
CO*: Udall by 11
NH*: Shaheen by 10
AK*: Begich by 10

Lean Democrat (58)
OR*: Merkly by 7
NC: Hagan by 3

Tilt Democrat (59)
MN: Frankin by 2.0

Special Rating: Likely Runoff (1)
GA: Chamblis by 1.5 or 45-44


Tilt GOP (40)
KY: McConnell by 2.7

Lean GOP (39)
None

Strong GOP (39)
MS*: Wicker By 12
TX*: Cornyn by 15
ME*: Collins by 15
*- Already called

Governors Poll check And Ratings

Washington: Georgie probably leads by about 7. Lean Democrat

North Carolina: Purdue leads by about 2.25. She is still the favorite Lean Democrat

Called: 28 D 21 R
Strong: 27 D 21 R
Lean: 29 D 21R
Tilt 29 D 21 R

Goals for this blog

After the 2008 election I intend to achieve 4 goals for this blog

1) to cover capitol hill

2) to have the best and most accurate coverage of the 2010 midterms

3) to poll 2010 races through my other blog politicalopinionpolling.blogspot.com

4) to become as well respected and read as CQ Politics, the Cook political Report, Politico and the Rothenburg political Report

Final Calls and a retraction

In the Presidential race I have 2 calls For Barack Obama. I am calling Colorado and Ohio for Obama and I have yet another retraction from McCain: His home state of Arizona. This puts the safe Electoral count at: Obama 306 McCain 127

Note: Next time I release ratings I will start to call some races in the lean catogory. this is not because these have solidified for the candidate I have called them for, it is so I can consentrate on closer races so my final calls will be as accurate as possible.

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

Safe/ Strong Obama (306)
PA: Obama by 11*
NH: Obama by 15*
MN: Obama by 15*
IA: Obama by 13*
NM:Obama by 10*
VA: Obama by 8*
OH: Obama by 8
CO: Obama by 9

Lean Obama (364)
NV: Obama by 3
NC: Obama by 3
IN: Obama by 5
FL: Obama by 4

Tilt Obama (378)
MO: Obama by 1.8
ND: Obama by 1.7

Tilt McCain (160)
MT: TIED
GA: McCain by 2.3

Lean McCain (142)
WV: McCain by 7
AZ: McCain by 6

Safe McCain (127)
AR: McCain by 11*
SD: McCain by 9*

*- Already Called (I thew in some states that I've called that each party seems to think they have a shot at)

Senate Poll check And Ratings

Safe/ Strong Democrat (55)
LA: Landriue By 15*
NH: Shaheen by 9*
VA: Warner by 27*
NM: Udall By 16*
CO: Udall by 11*

Lean Democrat (58)
OR: Merkly by 4
NC: Hagan by 4
MN: Frankin by 5

Tilt Democrat (59)
AK: Begich By 1.5

Special Rating: Lean Runoff (1)
GA: Chambliss by 1.3 or 45-44

Tilt GOP (40)
KY: McConell by 2.7
MS: Wicker by 1.2

Lean GOP (38)
None

Safe/ Strong GOP (38)
All other GOP seats

*- already called

Governors Ratings

Washington: Georgie (D) has a 5 point lead, She is undoubtedly the leader and has a strong advantage. Lean Democrat

North Carolina: Purdeue (D) has a three point lead and things are starting to come arround in her direction. Lean Democrat

safe/ Strong: D 27 R 21
Lean: D 29 R 21
Tilt: D 29 R 21

Major Final Calls This week and change in Popular vote prediction

In the Senate I am calling Texas for Cornyn (R) and New Hampshire for Shaheen (D) which Brings the total to Dem's 55 GOP 38

I am Officially calling the presidency for Barack Obama. I am calling Virginia in his favor giving him a total of 277 Safe electors putting him over the Magic number of 270 (269 for him)

In addition to this I am Changing my popular vote prediction to Obama 54% McCain 45% Barr 1%.

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

Safe/ Strong Obama (297)
IA: Already Called
NM: Already Called
VA: Obama by 8
OH: Obama by 7

Lean Obama (364)
CO: Obama by 5
NV: Obama by 3
FL: Obama by 4
NC: Obama by 3
MO: Obama by 3

Tilt Obama (378)
IN: Obama by 2.0
ND: Obama by 1.7

Tilt McCain (160)
MT: Tied


Lean McCain (157)
GA: McCain by 5
WV: McCain by 7

Strong/ Safe McCain (137)
All Other Red states

Senate Poll check And Ratings

Safe/ Strong Democrat (55)
VA: Already Called
NM: Already Called
CO: Already called
NH: Shaheen by 8

Lean Democrat (58)
MN: Frankin by 4
OR: Merkly by 6
NC: Hagan by 3

Tilt Democrat (59)
AK: Belesige by 1.5

Special Rating: Lean Run off* (1)
GA: Chambliss by 1.8 or 46-44

Tilt GOP (40)
MS: Wicker by 1.3
KY: McConnell by 2.3

Lean GOP (38)
None

Safe/ Strong GOP (38)
TX: Cornyn by 15

*- in Georgia if no candidate reaches 50%+1 the race goes to a runoff I see Georgia as leaning in that direction.

Governors- Poll Check and Ratings

Washington: Georgie has definately retaken the lead. My Average shows her up by 4. Lean Democrat

North Carolina: Purdue has a lead of about 2.25 points. Lean Democrat

these Numbers are pretty stable.

Safe/Strong: D 27 R 21
Lean: D 29 R 21
Tilt: D 29 R 21

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

Safe/Strong Obama (277)
IA: Already Called
NM: Already Called
VA: Obama by 8

Lean Obama (344)
CO: Obama by 6
NC: Obama by 4
NV: Obama by 4
MO: Obama by 3
FL: Obama by 3

Tilt Obama (367)
OH: Obama by 3.1
ND: Obama by 1.7

Tilt McCain (171)
IN: McCain by 3.8

Lean McCain(160)
MT: McCain by 4
GA: McCain by 6
WV: McCain by 7

Safe McCain (137)
All Other red states

Senate Poll check And Ratings

Safe/ Strong Dem (55)
VA: Already Called
NM: Already Called
CO: Already called
NH: Shaheen by 9

Lean Dem (57)
NC: Hagan by 6
OR: Merkly by 5

Tilt Dem (59)
AK: Belsige by 2.2
MN: Franken by 2.0

Tilt GOP(41)
MS: Wicker by 1.0
GA: Chambliss by 2.3
KY: McConell by 2.7

Lean GOP (38)
TX: Cornyn by 7

Safe GOP (37)

Governors- Rating's and poll check

North Carolina: Purdue (D) appears to be back in the lead by about 4. Thus I am Moving this one back into the Lean Democrat Category

Washington: This one is pretty much right where it was at three days ago. It remains Lean Democrat

And the counts Are:
Safe/ Strong: D 27 R 21
Lean: D 29 R 21
Tilt: D 29 R 21

3 Fianl Calls 1 Retraction

Senate: I am Calling Colorado for Udall (D) giving democrats a 54-37 win with 9 states still out.

Presidential Minnesota and New mexico are both Being called for Obama giving him 264 Safe EV's I amRetracting North Dekota From McCain bringing him down to 137

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

McCain is in Free Fall!! I am retracting yet another state from him in my final call. this is the 4th state I have been forced to retract. In all of my other final calls I have retracted only 1. Obama should get a few states in my final calls today but let's look at the polls and my Ratings:

Safe/ Strong Obama:
MN: Obama by 9
IA: Already called
NM: Obama by 10
VA: Obama by 8

Lean Obama (349)
CO: Obama by 6
OH: Obama by 5
NV: Obama by 4
FL: Obama by 5
MO: Obama by 4

Tossup/ Tilt Obama(367)
NC: Obama by 2.3
ND: Obama by 1.6

Tossup/ Tilt McCain (171)
WV: McCain by 0.6
IN: McCain by 3.8

Lean McCain (155)
GA: McCain by 7
MT: McCain by 7

Strong/ Safe (137)
All other red states

Senate Poll check And Ratings

There are 10 (soon to be 9) out standing Races, all of them are held by republicans. From now on I will rate the races every 3 days until I make my final call Probably 2 days before the election. Also all tossups will have a decimal.
Safe/ Strong Dem (55)
VA: Already Called
NM: Already Called
CO: Udall By 11
NH: Shaheen by 9

Lean Dem (59)
MN:Frankan by 5
OR: Merkly by 4
NC: Hagan By 4
AK: Belsige By 3

Tossup/ Tilt Dem (59)
None

Tossup/ Tilt GOP (41)
GA: Chambliss by 1.67
MS: Wicker by 1.5

Lean GOP (39)
KY: McConnell by 5
TX: Cornyn by 6

Safe GOP (37)


What to watch for:
Momentum is heavy on Martins side in the Georgia senate Race. this race may switch. Wicker will probably stay in a dead heat until election day. also Minnesota is fluid, Frankin may gain another 5-6 points but don't count out a Coleman comeback.

Governors Poll check And Ratings

I will start to do these as well as ratings on the Senate and Presidency once every three days unless the two outstanding races are Called (they won't be)

Washington: It is now doubtless that Christine Georgie has Climbed back into the lead. The questions are how big is that lead and will it last? My average says it is about 1.3 Points. I doubt Rossi will come back, But you never know. Lean Democrat

North Carolina: No one knows what is going on here. the last few polls don't have a consistent result but Purdue (D) Seems to be winning in more of them. My Average shows her up by 1.5. Tossup/ Tilt Democrat

Strong/ Safe: D 27 R 21
Lean: D 28 R 21
Tilt: D 29 R21

Let's Talk House

I have stopped Rating the house because it gets too confusing. How ever I will make a final call by releasing a list of pickups about 2-3 days before the election. I also want to highlight a few key districts.

Definite pickups
Right now The Democrats have about 9 (IL-11, AZ-1, AK-AL, NY-13, NY-25, VA-11, OH-16, NM-1 and FL-24) definite pickups the GOP only has 2(FL-16 And TX-22). expect these to be on the list unless something drastic happens. If these and only these districts change the house would be 243-192

Other Likely Pickups and Opportunities
The GOP only has 1 pickup opportunity other than the above-mentioned districts; That would be PA-11 which they probably will overtake. their losses will by far out weigh their gains. The Democrats have much more than that: WA-8 and CT-4 have added them selves to the list of districts where democrats are leading. CO-4 ,NC-8, NY-29 and OH-15 are all close to cementing a spot on the list above. If the election were today my guess would be the democrats hold 264-171

Missed GOP Opportunity
Survey USA has put out a poll which has The Democrat well ahead in CA-11. Don't expect it to be on the list. The GOP will not end with more than 185 seats.

Final Call's this week

Presidential:
I am retracting Georgia from McCain giving him a total of 140 Safe Electors and I am calling Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire for Obama giving him a total of 249.
My popular Vote prediction is now: Obama 53% McCain 45% Barr 2%

New Presidential Ratings and Poll Check

Strong/ Safe Obama (277)
PA: Obama by 13
NH: Obama by 10
WI: Obama by 10
NM: Obama by 10
IA:(already Called) Obama by 12
VA: Obama by 10
MN: Obama by 10

Lean Obama (338):
CO: Obama by 6
OH: Obama by 4
NV: Obama by 4
FL: Obama by 5


Tilt Obama(364):
NC: Obama by 3
MO: Obama by 2

Tilt McCain (174)
WV: McCain by 2
IN: McCain by 2

Lean McCain (158)
GA: McCain by 5
MT: McCain by 7


Strong McCain (140)
All Other Red States

New Senate Poll check and Ratings

These will be weekly until the last two weeks when they will come out every 3 days

Safe/ Strong Dem (54):
VA: Already Called
NM: Already Called
NH: Shaheen by 9

Lean Dem (58)
CO: Udall by 6
AK: Belsige by 4
NC: Hagan by 7
MN: Frankan by 5

Tilt Dem (59)
OR: Merlky by 2

Tilt GOP (41)
GA: Chambliss by 1
MS: Wicker by 2

Lean GOP (39)
KY: McConell by 4
TX: Cornyn by 7

Safe/ Strong (37)

Governors- Rating's and poll check

as promised here are my new and for the time being, Weekly Governors ratings and poll check:

Washington: Christine Georgie seems to have taken back her lead. it appears to be 2 points. Expect it to grow but this one is staying competitive Leans Democrat

North Carolina: this is a dead heat. dead even tie and it will sta very close till the end. I'm giving it to Purdue because she has momentum on her side. Tossup/ Tilts Democrat

this makes it:
Safe
Dem 27
GOP 21

Lean:
Dem 28
GOP 21

Tilt
Dem 29
GOP 21

New House Ratings

as I promised these are my last ratings on the house before my final Call. I will release a list of pick ups a few days before the election. So here they are:

Strong Dem (223):
NY-25
NY-13
IL-11
VA-11
AZ-1
AK-AL
AZ-8
IN-9

Lean Dem (240)
AL-5
GA-8
GA-12
IL-14
KS-2
KY-3
LA-6
MS-1
NC-11
NH-1
FL-16
WI-8
TX-23
OR-5
NY-19
NY-20
CO-7
NV-3
NM-1
NY-29
NC-8
OH-16
OH-15


Tossup/ Tilt Dem (261)
CA-11
AZ-3
PA-3
CA-4
IL-10
FL-8
FL-21
KY-2
MI-7
MI-9
MN-3
NJ-3
NJ-7
NM-2
OH-1

Tilt GOP (174)
PA-11
AL-2
CT-4
WA-8
FL-24
LA-4
MD-1
NY-26

Lean GOP (166)
TX-22
CA-46
FL-13
ID-1
IA-4
MO-6
MO-9
NE-2
NV-2
NJ-5
OH-2
OH-5
OH-7
TN-7
TX-7
TX-10
TX-32

Strong GOP (149)
VA-2
IL-6

Republican Party in Free fall, Early Voting

Today is the last day that I will Rate all four Races at the same time. These will be my last ratings on the House before my Final Call. I would like to point out one thing while I do this: THE GOP IS IN FREE FALL.

Stuart Rothenburg is warning of a "GOP Blood Bath" and Charlie Cook have moved his Predictions in the house 10 seats to the left. Chris Cilliza now thinks that the democrats are within striking distance of 60 seats in the senate. Polls are starting to show hints of an Obama land slide and Similar sensations in the senate and the house. Further More early voting (Particularly in Georgia) shows that the electorate has changed. I would not rule out an Obama 18-20 point win.

Let's Talk about early Voting: In Georgia 39% of the early voting electorate was black. If that were to stay consistant Obama would only need 12-19% of the White vote to take the state. I expect Obama to take 25-40% of the white vote in the south. In Ohio 30,000 People have took Part in Early Voting, 5,000 of those Registered at their polling place which means at least 18% are first time voters (Probably closer to 25%) as opposed to just 11% in 2004. If these stay consistant Obama could be in for a very good election night.

I have also Decided that I will have two final predictions. The first one: the official one (my Final Call) will be conservative and assume that the electorate has not changed much since 2004, The other will be a liberal estimate and assume that the electorate has Changed. Think of the second one as a back up.

Changes in My Prediction

I am changing my popular Vote Prediction to Obama 53% McCain 46% Barr 1%

Final calls this week

In the Senate:
I am calling Louisiana for Mary Landriue by a margin of 58-42. I probably left this one out standing to long. this makes the senate: Democrats 53 GOP 37

In the Presidential Race:
I am feeling a little bit nervous about my call for maine but I won't retract it until it gets really close. McCain is Pulling out of Michigan so I will call it for Obama. He's up by 11 in Washington and that state has been with him trough the race so I will call that for him as well. He Leads by 12 in Iowa so that will also go into the Obama- Biden list giving them a total of 214 Safe Electors. McCain leads by 12 in North Dekota so that will be called for him giving him 155.

Presidential: Poll Check and Ratings

Safe/Strong Obama(254):
PA: Obama by 11
MI: Obama by 8
WI: Obama by 7
NH: Obama by 11
NM: Obama by 9
IA: Obama by 12


Lean Obama (333)
MN: Obama by 5
CO: Obama by 5
VA: Obama by 4
OH: Obama by 4
FL: Obama by 5


Tossup/Tilt Obama(353)
NC: Obama by 1.5
NV: Obama by 3


Tossup/ Tilt McCain (185):
MO: McCain by 0.6
IN: McCain by 2

Lean McCain (163):
WV: McCain by 6


Strong/ Safe McCain (157):

MT: McCain by 11

ND: McCain by 12

Senate: Ratings and Poll Check

Today I am rating Gov's, the senate and the presidency. I will only rate the house one more time before I put out a list of pickups shortly before election night. Here are my new Ratings:



Safe/Strong Dem (53):
LA: Landruie by 15
VA: Already Called
NM: Already Called


Lean Dem (57):
AK: Belsige by 5
CO: Udall By 6
NH: Shaheen by 7
NC: Hagan by 4



Tossup/Tilt Dem(59):
OR: Merlky By 2
MN: Franken by 0.3



Tossup Tilt GOP(41):
MS: Wicker by 2
GA: Chambliss by 2

Lean GOP (39):
KY: McConel by 4
TX: Cornyn by 7

Safe GOP (37):
All other GOP held seats

Governors-Poll Check and Ratings

I only have 2 races left where I have not called the victor So here are the ratings for those two. (Note: Missouri has been predicted as a pick up)

North Carolina: Since the GOP convention this race has been extremely close. there are polls going in both directions and the average shows McCroy (R) leading by 3. This is a tossup Tilting Republican at the moment

Washington: This race has tightened up a bit but georgie still leads by 1.3% Tossup Tilt Democrat

Safe: Dem 27 GOP 21
Lean: Dem 27 GOP 21
Tilt: Dem 28 GOP 22