Two New Final Calls and a Retraction

Governors:
I am calling Delaware in favor of the Democrat at a 68-32 Margin because the first poll of this open race was released.
That makes it : Dem's 27 GOP 21

Senate: I am now calling Maine in Favor of Republican susan Collins because of a poll which has her 16 points ahead. the Margin is Collins 58- Allen 42.

I am retracting my previous call for Mitch McConell because of new polling info which shows the race within 2-3 points
they cancel eachother out.

New Presidential Ratings, final calls and poll check

Strong Obama (229)
MI: Obama by 7
WI: Obama by 7
OR: Obama by 11
IA: Obama by 9
NM: Obama by 8

Lean Obama (182)
MN: Obama by 5
CO: Obama by 7
PA: Obama by 6
VA: Obama by 5

tossup/ tilt Obama (326)
NH: Obama by 1
OH: Obama by 0.6
NV: Obama by 0.8
NC: Obama by 0.3

Tossup/ Tilt McCain (212)
FL: McCain by 0.4
IN: McCain by 0.7
MO: McCain By 2

Lean McCain (163)
WV: McCain by 6

Strong McCain (158)
MT: McCain by 11
ND: McCain by 13

New Final Calls for the presidential Race
For Obama we are now calling Hawaii, Oregon and Newjersey for Obama giving him a total of 179 safe electoral votes

For McCain I am Calling South Dekota, South Carolina and Louisiana giving him a total of 152 Safe Votes

New Presidential Ratings and Poll Check

Here are My new Ratings
Safe/Strong
Obama 202
McCain 157

Lean
Obama 273
McCain 198



And Here it is without tossups:
Obama 306
McCain 232

I Told you I would do these weekly but some big polls have come out today here are my poll checks and Ratings:
Strong Obama (202)
IA: Obama +10
NM: Obama +7

Lean Obama (273)
MN: Obama +2
WI: Obama +3
OR: Obama+10
PA: Obama +3
NH: Obama +6
CO: Obama +6

Tilt Obama (306)
OH: Obama +1
VA: Obama +1


Tilt McCain (232)
IN: McCain +1
NV: McCain +1
NC: McCain+1
MT: McCain +2

Lean McCain (198)
FL: McCain +3
MO: McCain +5
ND: McCain +6

Strong McCain (157)

All other Bush '04 states


Key things To watch for:
1) McCain is capping off in the rust belt states: expect Obama in the next week to 10 days to expand his leads in WI, PA, MN,MI and OH
2) Obama is closing in on making CO a strong state.
3) McCain could be reclaiming the lead in VA soon, Don't hold me to that, VA will be a tossup no matter what.
4) Ignore polls finished before Tuesday.
5) FL and IN will probably flirt between leaning McCain and Being a tossup till election day.

Senate Poll check And Ratings

In the Senate though I still have 11 Races out only 6 appear to be somewhat competitive.
Here is My Poll Check on those six

CO: Udall (D) +6
AK: Belsige (D) +5
NC: Hagan (D) +1
MN: Coleman (R) +1
OR: Smith (R) +1
MS: Wicker (R) +3

Here are my Ratings of those 11 that are still out and pick ups :

Sade Dem (52):
VA
NM

Strong Dem (54):
NH
LA

Lean Dem (56):
AK
CO

Tossup/ Tilt Dem (57)
NC

Tossup/ Tilt GOP(43):
OR
MN
MS

Lean GOP (40):
None

Strong GOP (37):
GA
TX
ME

Races to watch:
Minnesota: The Convention has Coleman about a one point lead. Will it hold?
North Carolina: this race is extremely fluid, Kay Hagan holds about a one point lead. Liz Dole looked like she had lucked out a few months ago but that turned out not to be the case. The Democrats have united behind Hagan and this race will be close down to the wire.

Presidential Final Calls: Collectively

The Final Calls on the Presidency were getting tedious so I am doing the Rest of what I have right now here:

Obama Will Win DC,DE,MD,CT,RI, MA,VT,NY and ME as I have already called in addition to CA and IL Giving him an Safe Total of 153 Electoral Votes.

McCain Will win UT,WY,ID and Georgia as I have already called inn addition to KS, OK, NE, AL,TN,KY,AR,AK, WV and TX Giving him a total of 121 Safe Electoral Votes.

Senate election-Final Call- New Mexico- Key Race

Polls:
D) Udall 56%
R) Parce 41%

Dominici (R) Approval: 40%

2002 Results Dominici 65-35

X-Factors
1) Had Dominici Ran this would have been interesting, But he didn't

Final Call
Udall 58%
Parce 42%

Senate:
Dem 53
GOP 37

New Presidential Ratings and Poll Check

the convention dust ha settled and obama now has a lead I have new ratings and will polls, I have narrowed this down to a few states:
IA: Obama +12
CO: Obama +3
NM:Obama +7
PA: Obama +4
NH: Obama +5
MN: Obama +3
MI: Obama +3
WI: Obama +4
NC: McCain +1
VA: Obama +2
OH: TIED
NV: McCain +1
IN: McCain +4
FL: McCain +2
MO: McCain+5
MT: McCain +6
ND McCain +6

I will Now start Doing Maps weekly. Now all Blue States unless listed are Implied tward Obama and all Red states tward McCain.

Strong/ Safe Obama (195):
IA
NM
Lean Obama (273):
OR
MN
WI
MI
CO


Tossup Tilt Obama (286):
VA

Pure Tossup (20): OH

Tossup Tilt McCain (232):
NC
NV
FL

Lean McCain (185) :
MO
IN
ND
MT

Safe/ Strong McCain (157):

I am also Updating My Popular Vote Prediction to Obama 50% McCain 47% Barr 3% Nader <>

Results of the first ever Lindsay Politics Poll

I have Conducted a poll of 360 people and weighted it to match the demographics of the nation. It is very scientific. Here are the Results:

Obama 44%
McCain 39%
Barr 2%
Nader 1%
Undecided 14%
+/- 5.17%

That is all that I will disclose from this poll. I am planning on conducting two more one at the beginning of October, and the other in either late October, to early November

Presidential- Final Call- Georgia: Key Race

Polls
McCain 56%
Obama 38%

2004: Bush 58-41

Final Call:
McCain 53% (15)
Obama 40%
Barr 6%
Nader 1%

Electoral Count:
Obama 77
McCain 27

Presidential- Final Call- Maryland

Polls:
Obama 52%
McCain 38%

2004: Kerry 56%-43%

Final Call
Obama 56% (10)
McCain 42%
Barr 1%
Nader 1%

Electoral Count
Obama 77
McCain 12

Presidential-Final Call- Delaware

Polls
Obama 55%
Mccain 43%

2004: Kerry 53-46

X-factors: this is Biden's Home State

Final Call
Obama 57% (3 EV's)
McCain 43%

Electoral Count:
Obama 67
McCain 12

Presidential- Maine Final Call

Polls
Obama 52%
McCain 38%

2004: Kerry 53-45

Final Call:
Obama 55% (4 EV's)
McCain 43%
Barr 2%

Electoral Count:
Obama 64
McCain 12

Presidential- Final Call- New York

Polls
Obama 55%
McCain 34%

2004: Kerry 58-41

Final Call
Obama 59% (31 EV's)
McCain 39%
Barr 2%

Electoral Count
Obama 60
Mccain 12

Presidential- Final Call- Conn.

Polls:
Obama 51%
McCain 38%

Obama Peak (6/30):
Obama 57-35

Mccain Peak (5/29):
Obama 47-44

2004:Kerry 54-44

Final Call:
Obama 56% (7 EV's)
McCain 43%
Barr 1%

Electoral Count
Obama 29
McCain 12

Presidential election- Mass. Final Call

Polls
Obama 54%
McCain 38%

2004: Kerry 62-37

Final Call:
Obama 60% (12 EV's)
McCain 37%
Barr 2%
Nader 1%

Electoral Count:
Obama 24
McCain 12

Presidential- Final Call- Idaho

Polls:
McCain 68%
Obama 29%

2004: Bush 69%-30%

Final Call:
McCain 69% (4 Electoral Votes)
Obama 31%

Electoral Count
McCain 12
Obama 10

Democrats Officially Predicted to Win more Governors

With Missouri and Indiana Now in the Books The democrats Have Clenched The Senate and the Governors Races. There are Three Out Standing Races

3. Delaware: Still waiting on Polls , Should be called when They Come. Strong Democrat

2. Washington: it's about tied right now once the RNC bounce wears off Georgie Should Have the Advantege. Lean Democrat

1. North Carolina: Right Now it's About a 3 point disadvantage for Purdue. If you figure in the Obama changed electorate and the Waring off of the RNC bounce It should be close to a 1 point advantage for her, Little Room for Error. Tossup/ Tilt Democrat

So the Counts Are:

Safe
X-Dems 26
GOP 21

Strong
Dems 27
GOP 21

Lean
Dems 28
GOP 21

Tilt
Dems 29
GOP 21

Governor- Final Call- Indiana- Key Race

Polls
R) Daniels 53%
D) Long 35%

Daniels Peak (4/29):
Daniels By 19

Long Peak(6/10):
Tie

Daniels Approval: 45%

Final Call:
Daniels 55%
Long 45%

Governors
X-Dem 26
GOP 21

Governor- Final Call-Misouri- Key Race

Currant Polls:
D) Nixon 54%
R) Hurshoff 39%

Nixon Peak (6/3):
Nixon 54-34

Hurshoff Peak (8/7):
Nixon 53-42

Blunt Approval: 36%

X- Factors:
1)If blunt were Running He'd loose
2) Weaker GOP Candidate won in Primary

Final Call
Nixon 56%
Hurshoff 44%

Governors
X-Democrats 26
Republicans 20

Democrats Officially Predicted Win Senate, Senate No-Brainers Over

After The Senate No-brainer Final Calls ( and Two Others in New Jersey and Kentucky), The Democrats Have Clinched By My Prediction, and We now have 12 Races out.

12. New Mexico: a popular Politicians Son is running for the open seat and has consistently been up by 20-30 Why Haven't I called it? Some Recent Rassmussen's Have the Race within 10, As soon as someone Polls it back to a 10+ point lead I will Immediately Call it. Strong Democrat

11. Texas: Some People saw this race as a slim Democratic Opportunity, But after the GOP Convention Texas is looking More Red. This one Like New Mexico Will Probably be called at the next poll. Strong Republican

10. New Hampshire: This Is looking very Bad for John Sununu. He is down By 10 Points and has been since this race started, He needs to get competitive soon or it's over. Strong Democrat

9. Maine: Collins is Extremely popular and up by 21. Experts think it is going to give but I think not. She Seems as likely as ever to be re-elected Strong Republican

8. Louisiana: Landriue is up by 17 and I don't see that falling. This one will Probably be called at the next poll. Strong Democrat

7.Georgia: Chambliss is up by 8 points but this could begin to swing in Martins Favor, It dosent seen Likely at this point though. My Guess is that it will dance between being safe and Being Competitive. Strong Republican

6. Colorado: since this Seat Has Opened it has been competitive Right now it's Udall By about six (maybe Stronger), Don't expect a call on this any time soon, but Right Now Udall (D) is the Favorate. Lean Democrat

5. Alaska: with Ted Stevens Indictment every thing seemed to be looking great for Belsige (Democrat) but since McCain Picked Palin His Lead Has Shrunk (20-25 to 2-5). Stvens Jump Will Blow Over but it Might take some time.Lean Democrat

4. Misssissippi Class I: Since the resignation of trent Lott This Race has been one of the Most Competitve Right Now his sucsesssor Wicker has about a 5 Point lead but it's in heavy flux Tossup/ Tilt GOP

3. Minnesota: Franken Leads by 1 But that was a Pre-RNC Poll, Right Now Coleman has the Advantege but expect this to be a Race to the Finish. Tossup/ Tilt GOP

2.Oregan: Right Now Merlky Leads Modderate GOP incumbant Gordon smith By about 1. Gordon smith is Liked By Democrats and Tying himself To Obama, But Chafee Lost in '06 Tossup/ Tilt Dem

1. North Carolina: Do me a favor and Ignore the Survey USA and Research 2000 Polls. A side from those there have been two polls since the RNC 1 Democrat and 1 Republican: The GOP Puts Dole Up By 2 The Democrats Put Hagan Up by 1. In short this Race is Tied. If Obama helps Blacks Come out it will really help Hagan in this dead heat. Tossup/ Tilt Dem

Here are the New Numbers

Safe (already called)
Dems 51
GOP 37

Strong
Dems 54
GOP 40

Lean
Dems 56
GOP 40

Tilt
Dems 58
GOP 42

Senate election-Final Call- New Jersy- Key Race

NOTE: This is Not a No Brainer but Polling Info Released this week has Lead me to this Decision:

Currant Polls
D) Launtenberg 51%
R) Zimmer 40%

Launtenber Peak (8/11):
Launtenberg 50-32

Zimmer Peak (7/21)
Launtenberg 45-37

Launtenberg Approval: 42%

2002 Results: Launtenberg 54-44

X-Factors
1) The Only Reason Launtenberg has not been Voted out is Because NJ hates The GOP.
2) he was forced to run in 2002 after Torcelli Dropped and was a former senator at the time

Final Call
Launtenberg 56%
Zimmer 44%

Senate
X-Dem 51
GOP 37

Senate Final Call- Kuntuckey- Key Race

NOTE: This does not count as a no Brainer But A poll released this week lead me to this

Polls:
McConel 52%
Lansford 35%

McConell Peak (9/9):
McConel 52-35

Lansford Peak (5/22):
Lansford 49-44

McConel Approval: 51%

2002:McConel 65-35

Final Call:
McConel 56%
Lansford 44%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 37

Final Call - Mississippi Senate Class II

Polls
R) Cochran 59%
D) Flemming 34%

Cochran Approval 58%

2002: Cochran 85-15

Final Call
Cochran 64%
Flemming 36%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 36

Senate election-Final Call- Idaho

Polls
R) Risch 50%
D) Larooca 31%
I) Rammel 5%

Creig (R) Approval: 34%

2002: Creig 65-33

X- Factors
1) had creig ran this would have been a sure Democratic Pick up.

Final Call
Risch 56%
Larooca 38%
Rammel 6%

Senate
Dem 50
GOP 35

Senate election-Final Call- Nebraska- Key Race

Polls
R) Johannas 60%
D) Keeleb 34%

2002 Haggle 83-15

Haggle (R) Approval: 61%

Johannas 63%
Keeleb 37%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 34

Senate election-Final Call- Kansas

Poll
R) Roberts 58%
D) Slattary 32%

Roberts Approval: 55%

2002: Roberts 83-9-8

Final Call
Roberts 62%
Slattary 38%

Senate:
Dem 50
GOP 33

Senate election-Final Call- Oklahoma

Currant Polls
R) Inhofe 56%
D) Rice 34%

Inhofe Approval: 48%

2002: Inhofe 57-36

Final Call
Inhofe 57%
Rice 43%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 32

Senate election-Final Call- Tennesee

Currant Poll
R) Alexander 60%
D) Tuke 30%

Alexander Approval 53%

2002: Alexander 54-44

Final Call
Alexander 63%
Tuke 37%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 31

Senate election-Final Call- South Carolina

Only Poll
R) Graham 54%
D) Conely 32%

2002 Results: Graham 54-44

Graham Approval: 57%

Final Call
Graham 55%
Conely 45%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 30

Senate Final Call- Wyoming class I and II

Final Call
Class I
Barosso 64%
Carter 36%

Class II
Enzi 83%
Rothfuss 17%

Senate
Dems 50
GOP 29

Senate election- MAJOR Final Call- Virginia

Currant Polls
D) Mark Warner 56%
R) Gilmoure 35%

Mark Warner Peak (6/16) :
Warner 59-28

Gilmour Peak (1/3):
Warner 53-38

John Warner (R) Approval: 57%

X-Factors
1) had John Warner Chosen to run again the GOP would have held on
2) Mark Warner Popular Former Governor
3) Gilmour Ran for President but didn't get far

Final Call
M.Warner 60%
Gilmour 40%

Senate
Democrats 50
GOP 27

Senate election-Final Call- South Dekota

Poll
D) Johnson 61%
R) Dykstra 32%

Johnson Approval: 67%

2002 election: Johnson 51-49

Final Call:

Johnson 65%
Dykstra 35%

Senate
Dems 49
GOP 27

Senate election-Final Call- Montana

Only Poll
D) Bacus 64%
R) Kehllher 31%

2002: Bacus 63-32

Bacus Approval: 72%

Final Call
Bacus 67-33

Senate
Dems 48
GOP 27

Final Call - Massachusets Senate

Currant Polls
Kerry 58%
Beatty 32%

Kerry Approval: 54%

2002 Results: Kerry 72% Libritarian 16% GOP 10%

Final Call
Kerry 62%
Beatty 38%

Senate
Dem 47
GOP 27

Senate election-Final Call- Rhode Island

Only Poll
Reed 72%
Tingle 20%

Reed Approval: 66%

2002 results: Reed 78- Tingle 21

X-factors: 2002 Rematch

Final Call
Reed 76%
Tingle 24%

Senate
Dems 46
GOP 27

Senate Final Call-Illinois

Currant Polls
D) Durban 61%
R) Saurberg 33%

Durban Approval: 52%

2002 Election Durban 60-38

Final Call:
Durban 64%
Saurbeg 36%

Senate
Dems 45
GOP 27

Senate election-Final Call- Michigan

Currant Polls
D) Levin 59%
R) Hoogendyke 27%

Hoogendyke peak
Levin 55-35

Levin Peak 59-27

2000 Results Levin 61-38

Levin Approval 54%

Final Call
Levin 61%
Hoogendyke 39%

Senate
Dems 44
GOP 27

Senate election-Final Call- Iowa

Currant Polls
(D) Harkin 60%
(R) Reed 36%

Harkin Peak
Harkin 59-20

Reed Peak
Harkin 53-37

Harkin Approval 55%

Final Call
Harkin 58%
Reed 42%

Senate
Dems 43
GOP 27

West Virginia Senate- Final Call

Polling:
None

Rockefeller Approval: 65%

2002 Results: Rockefeller 63-37

Final Call
(D) Rockefeller 64%
(R) Wolf 36%

Senate
Dems 42
GOP 27

Final Call - Delaware- senate

Polling
No ones Bothered

Biden Approval: 64%

2000 Results: Biden 58-41

X- Factors
1) Biden is Running for VP

Final Call
Biden 68%
O'Conel 32%

Senate
Dems 41
GOP 27

The 2008 Governors Races

The First of my no brainer final calls are done. I've finished the easy Governors races and we are left with 5 Races so I will rate and rank them based on how competitive they are them:

5. Delaware: should be an easy democratic victory but it's an open seat and there hasn't been any polling yet, I don't want to take any unnecessary chances. Strong Democrat


4. Missouri : though it is currently held by republican he has retired (and would go down in a landslide any way) and the Challenger is 8 Points ahead. the GOP's Chances are slim but existent So I am holding off on calling this one. Strong Democrat

3.Indiana: this one looked earlier like it would be competitive but the GOP has pulled ahead by about 12. this could just be an early trend and start to trend back tward the left but for now it's looking good for the GOP. Lean Republican

2. Washington: the Democratic Governor (Christine Georgie) won by under 1,000 votes in 2004 and has been fighting to keep her position ever since. it seems that she is winning that fight. she is now leading by about 4 but the race is trending in the other direction. she looks good but right now I'd put the odds of her victory at about 70-30 (Favoring Georgie ). Lean Democrat

1. North Carolina: the popular governor Mike Easly is termed out and this race is wide open. Right now Purdue (the Democratic Nominee) is leading by 1.5 points. it's a bit close for comfort. Obama could help her win but she needs to fight to stay on top. Tossup/ Tilt Democrat


so here are the numbers.

Safe (Already Predicted)
Dem 25
GOP 20

Strong
Dem 27
GOP 20

Lean
Dem 28
GOP 21

Tossups included
Dem 29
GOP 21

Final Call Governors- West Virginia

Polls:
No one has bothered

Manchin Approval: 63%

2004 Results: Manchin 64-32

Final Call
(D) Manchin 67%
(R) Weeks 33%

Governor Count
Dem 25
GOP 20

Governor Final Call- Vermont

Currant (and only) Polls
(R) Dougless 53%
(D) Galbraith 22%
(P) Pollina 15%

2004 Results Dougless 58-37

Dougless Approval 63%

Outliers
1)Vermont is about the only stat where 3ed parties have the power to get over 10% of the vote

Final Call
(R) Dougless 60%
(D) Galbraith 24%
(P) Pollina 16%

Governor Count
Dem 24
GOP 20

Governor Final Call- North Dekota

Currant Polls
(R) Hoeven 63%
(D) Mathurn 19%

Hooven Peak
Hoeven 63-19

Mathurn Peak
Hoeven 67-27

Hoeven Approval: 86%

2004 Results: Hoeven 71-27

Final Call
(R) Hoeven 73%
(D) Mathurn 27%

Governor Count
Dem 24
GOP 19

Governor- Final Call-Montana

Currant Polls
(D) Schwitzer 56%
(R) Brown 32%

Schwitzer Peak
Schwitzer 61-32

Brown Peak
Schwitzer 56-32

Shwitzer Approval: 66%

2004 Margin: Shwitzer 51%Brown 46%

Outliers
1)This is a 2004 Rematch and They didn't vote for Brown then.
2) GOP is much worse off than they were in 2004
3) Shwitzer's Convention Speech will get him votes
4) High Approval

Final Call
(D) Schwitzer 62%
(R) Brown 38%

Governor Count
Dem 24
GOP 18

Governor-Final Call-Utah

Currant Polls
(R) Huntsman 73%
(D) Springmeyer 9%

Huntsman Peak
Huntsman 78-11

SpringMeyer Peak
Huntsman 66-19

Huntsman Approval: 72%

Final Call
Huntsman 81%
Springmeyer 19%

Governor Count
Dem 23
GOP 18

Governor- Final Call-New Hampshire

Currant Polls
(D) Lynch 58%
(R) Kenney 32%

Kenney Peak
Lynch 58-32

Lynch Peak
Lynch 68-17

Approval Rating 57%

Final Call
(D) Lynch 66%
(R) Kenney 34%

Governors
Dem 23
GOP 17

Senate election-Final Call- Alabama

Currant Polls
R-Sessions 59%
D-Figures 32%

Sessions Peak
Sessions 62-29

Figures Peak
Sessions 57-36

2002 Results: Sessions +19

Sessions Approval Rating: 56%

Final Call
(R) Sessions 63%
(D) Figures 37%

Senate
Dem 40
GOP 27

Presidential-Final Call- Wyoming

Currant Polls
McCain 62%
Obama 25%

2004 Results:
Bush 69-29

Final Call
McCain 70%
Obama 30%

Electoral Vote:
Obama 10
McCain 8

Presidential-Final Call-Rhode Island

Currant Polls
Obama 53%
McCain 30%

Obama Peak
Obama 53-25

McCain Peak
Obama 50-32

2004 Results
Kerry 60-39

Turnout say:
1)Obama's To Loose

Final Call
Obama 61% (4 EV)
McCain 37%
Barr 1%
Nader 1%

Electoral Vote
Obama 10
McCain 5

Presidential-Final Call- Vermont

Currant Polls
Obama 63%
McCain 29%

Obama Peak
Obama 63-29

McCain Peak
Obama 57-36

2004 Results Kerry 59-39

Turn out say
1)Obama Has it

Final Call
Obama 64% (3 EV's)
McCain 35%
Nader 1%

Electoral Vote
Obama 6
McCain 5

Presidential- Final Call- Utah

Currant Polls
McCain 62%
Obama 23%

McCain Peak
Mccain 62-23

Obama Peak
McCain 52-33

Out Liers
Safe McCain

Turn out say:
1)McCain Will win

2004 Results
Bush 72-26

Final Call
Mccain 71% (5 EV)
Obama 28%
Barr 1%

Electoral Vote
McCain 5
Obama 3

Senate election-Final Call- Arkansaws

2002 Results: Pryor (D) + 8%

Outliers
1)Pryor Unopposed

Final Call
(D) Pryor 100%

Senate
Democrats 40
Republicans 26

Presidential election- Washington DC Final Call

Now that the conventions have ended I am Starting to Make Final Calls and Begaining with Washington DC

2004 Results
D-Kerry 91%
R-Bush 9%

Polls:
No ones even Bothered

X-Factors
1) Obama helps with Black Turn out

Turn out say
1)this one goes to Obama No Matter What

Final Call
Obama 95% (3 EV's)
McCain 3%
Nader 1%
Barr 1%

electoral Vote
Obama 3
McCain 0

Convention Jumps Historicaly

2000

Pre-DNC
Bush 55%
Gore 39%

Post DNC
Gore 47% (+8%)
Bush 44% (-11%)

Gore Net Jump: +19%


Pre-RNC
Bush 50%
Gore 39%


Post RNC
Bush 54% (+4%)
Gore 37% (-2%)

Bush Net Jump: +6%


Final Election Results
Gore 49%(-2% from Bounce) (267)
Bush 48% (-18% from Bounce)(271)


2004
Pre-RNC
Bush 49%
Kerry 49%

Post RNC
Bush 51% (+2%)
Kerry 41% (-8%)

Bush Net: +10%

Pre-DNC
Kerry 46%
Bush 43%

Post DNC
Kerry 50% (+4%)
Bush 43% (+/- 0%)

Kerry Net +4%

Final Results
Bush 51% (-7% From Bounce)(286)
Kerry 48% (-10% from Bounce)(252)

2008

Pre RNC
Obama 48%
McCain 39%

Post RNC
Not Yet Available (As of now Obama 47% McCain 45% )

Pre-DNC
Obama 47%
McCain 47%

Post DNC
Obama 48% (+1%)
McCain 39% (-8%)

Net: Obama +9%

Final Results
Not Yet Available

The Biggest Jump was Gore in 2000 (+19%) The Smallest was Kerry in 2004 (+4%). If I were to put in Today's Gallup poll as the Post RNC Numbers It would be: Obama 47% (-1%) McCain 45% (+6%) and give McCain a 7% Net, but conduction of the poll began on 9/3, McCain Didn't give his speech till 9/4 Which Means I am Giving him till Monday. In the past two elections the person that holds thai ground better (lost less after the other convention) have won . In all 5 conventions (Not counting this years RNC) anylized the Convention holder had the lead after their Bounce, If John McCain does not victory could Proove Dificult. Every one has lost the Magnitude of their lead after the bounce (Gore Lead by 3 and won by 1 Which means -2 from bounce), which means an Obama 9+% victory is unlikely. The Post Convention Bounce in all but one case since 2000 (Gore lead by 6 at one point) has been the biggest lead the candidates have from that point on which means if McCain doesn't take the lead it is unlikely that he will get it.
I am Giving McCain till monday. If he does not have the lead then Obama will be the overwelming favorite.

I will not do any Ratings or other anylizations untill the conventiontion dust settles, But this Opens the door for me to start makeing Final Calls which are Subgect to change untill election night eve.

Republican National Convention Speaker Grades

Night one
Haily Barbor C
Charlie Christ A-
Rick Perry F
Bob Riley D

Night two
Fred Thompson B
Joe Leiberman D
George Bush D-

Night Three
Rudy Guiliani D
Mike Huckabee A-
Mitt Romney C
Sara Palin D-

Night Four
John McCain D

Best non-prime time speaker: Tim Pawenty

The Pros and Cons of Sarah Palin

Pro's
-She's a woman

Cons
-No experience
-Ties to Ted Stevens
-Under Investigation
-Extreme right whinger
-will get owned by Biden in the debate
-Shows Hollow attempt for McCain to out

That's -5. Joe Lieberman would have been a better choice for god sake. she is a horrible choice!!

Palin is a horrible choice and will come back to bite McCain.

Democratic National Convention Speech Grade

Night one
Ted Kennedy A-
Michelle Obama A-

Night Two
Mark Warner C
Hillary Clinton B

Night Three
Bill Clinton A+
Joe Biden A

Night Four
Barack Obama A+ (hit this one out of the park)

The Best non-prime time speaker: Dennis Kucinich


I will do the RNC this Weekend.