Currant Polls
Obama 63%
McCain 29%
Obama Peak
Obama 63-29
McCain Peak
Obama 57-36
2004 Results Kerry 59-39
Turn out say
1)Obama Has it
Final Call
Obama 64% (3 EV's)
McCain 35%
Nader 1%
Electoral Vote
Obama 6
McCain 5
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Presidential- Final Call- Utah
Currant Polls
McCain 62%
Obama 23%
McCain Peak
Mccain 62-23
Obama Peak
McCain 52-33
Out Liers
Safe McCain
Turn out say:
1)McCain Will win
2004 Results
Bush 72-26
Final Call
Mccain 71% (5 EV)
Obama 28%
Barr 1%
Electoral Vote
McCain 5
Obama 3
McCain 62%
Obama 23%
McCain Peak
Mccain 62-23
Obama Peak
McCain 52-33
Out Liers
Safe McCain
Turn out say:
1)McCain Will win
2004 Results
Bush 72-26
Final Call
Mccain 71% (5 EV)
Obama 28%
Barr 1%
Electoral Vote
McCain 5
Obama 3
Senate election-Final Call- Arkansaws
2002 Results: Pryor (D) + 8%
Outliers
1)Pryor Unopposed
Final Call
(D) Pryor 100%
Senate
Democrats 40
Republicans 26
Outliers
1)Pryor Unopposed
Final Call
(D) Pryor 100%
Senate
Democrats 40
Republicans 26
Presidential election- Washington DC Final Call
Now that the conventions have ended I am Starting to Make Final Calls and Begaining with Washington DC
2004 Results
D-Kerry 91%
R-Bush 9%
Polls:
No ones even Bothered
X-Factors
1) Obama helps with Black Turn out
Turn out say
1)this one goes to Obama No Matter What
Final Call
Obama 95% (3 EV's)
McCain 3%
Nader 1%
Barr 1%
electoral Vote
Obama 3
McCain 0
2004 Results
D-Kerry 91%
R-Bush 9%
Polls:
No ones even Bothered
X-Factors
1) Obama helps with Black Turn out
Turn out say
1)this one goes to Obama No Matter What
Final Call
Obama 95% (3 EV's)
McCain 3%
Nader 1%
Barr 1%
electoral Vote
Obama 3
McCain 0
Convention Jumps Historicaly
2000
Pre-DNC
Bush 55%
Gore 39%
Post DNC
Gore 47% (+8%)
Bush 44% (-11%)
Gore Net Jump: +19%
Pre-RNC
Bush 50%
Gore 39%
Post RNC
Bush 54% (+4%)
Gore 37% (-2%)
Bush Net Jump: +6%
Final Election Results
Gore 49%(-2% from Bounce) (267)
Bush 48% (-18% from Bounce)(271)
2004
Pre-RNC
Bush 49%
Kerry 49%
Post RNC
Bush 51% (+2%)
Kerry 41% (-8%)
Bush Net: +10%
Pre-DNC
Kerry 46%
Bush 43%
Post DNC
Kerry 50% (+4%)
Bush 43% (+/- 0%)
Kerry Net +4%
Final Results
Bush 51% (-7% From Bounce)(286)
Kerry 48% (-10% from Bounce)(252)
2008
Pre RNC
Obama 48%
McCain 39%
Post RNC
Not Yet Available (As of now Obama 47% McCain 45% )
Pre-DNC
Obama 47%
McCain 47%
Post DNC
Obama 48% (+1%)
McCain 39% (-8%)
Net: Obama +9%
Final Results
Not Yet Available
The Biggest Jump was Gore in 2000 (+19%) The Smallest was Kerry in 2004 (+4%). If I were to put in Today's Gallup poll as the Post RNC Numbers It would be: Obama 47% (-1%) McCain 45% (+6%) and give McCain a 7% Net, but conduction of the poll began on 9/3, McCain Didn't give his speech till 9/4 Which Means I am Giving him till Monday. In the past two elections the person that holds thai ground better (lost less after the other convention) have won . In all 5 conventions (Not counting this years RNC) anylized the Convention holder had the lead after their Bounce, If John McCain does not victory could Proove Dificult. Every one has lost the Magnitude of their lead after the bounce (Gore Lead by 3 and won by 1 Which means -2 from bounce), which means an Obama 9+% victory is unlikely. The Post Convention Bounce in all but one case since 2000 (Gore lead by 6 at one point) has been the biggest lead the candidates have from that point on which means if McCain doesn't take the lead it is unlikely that he will get it.
I am Giving McCain till monday. If he does not have the lead then Obama will be the overwelming favorite.
I will not do any Ratings or other anylizations untill the conventiontion dust settles, But this Opens the door for me to start makeing Final Calls which are Subgect to change untill election night eve.
Pre-DNC
Bush 55%
Gore 39%
Post DNC
Gore 47% (+8%)
Bush 44% (-11%)
Gore Net Jump: +19%
Pre-RNC
Bush 50%
Gore 39%
Post RNC
Bush 54% (+4%)
Gore 37% (-2%)
Bush Net Jump: +6%
Final Election Results
Gore 49%(-2% from Bounce) (267)
Bush 48% (-18% from Bounce)(271)
2004
Pre-RNC
Bush 49%
Kerry 49%
Post RNC
Bush 51% (+2%)
Kerry 41% (-8%)
Bush Net: +10%
Pre-DNC
Kerry 46%
Bush 43%
Post DNC
Kerry 50% (+4%)
Bush 43% (+/- 0%)
Kerry Net +4%
Final Results
Bush 51% (-7% From Bounce)(286)
Kerry 48% (-10% from Bounce)(252)
2008
Pre RNC
Obama 48%
McCain 39%
Post RNC
Not Yet Available (As of now Obama 47% McCain 45% )
Pre-DNC
Obama 47%
McCain 47%
Post DNC
Obama 48% (+1%)
McCain 39% (-8%)
Net: Obama +9%
Final Results
Not Yet Available
The Biggest Jump was Gore in 2000 (+19%) The Smallest was Kerry in 2004 (+4%). If I were to put in Today's Gallup poll as the Post RNC Numbers It would be: Obama 47% (-1%) McCain 45% (+6%) and give McCain a 7% Net, but conduction of the poll began on 9/3, McCain Didn't give his speech till 9/4 Which Means I am Giving him till Monday. In the past two elections the person that holds thai ground better (lost less after the other convention) have won . In all 5 conventions (Not counting this years RNC) anylized the Convention holder had the lead after their Bounce, If John McCain does not victory could Proove Dificult. Every one has lost the Magnitude of their lead after the bounce (Gore Lead by 3 and won by 1 Which means -2 from bounce), which means an Obama 9+% victory is unlikely. The Post Convention Bounce in all but one case since 2000 (Gore lead by 6 at one point) has been the biggest lead the candidates have from that point on which means if McCain doesn't take the lead it is unlikely that he will get it.
I am Giving McCain till monday. If he does not have the lead then Obama will be the overwelming favorite.
I will not do any Ratings or other anylizations untill the conventiontion dust settles, But this Opens the door for me to start makeing Final Calls which are Subgect to change untill election night eve.
Republican National Convention Speaker Grades
Night one
Haily Barbor C
Charlie Christ A-
Rick Perry F
Bob Riley D
Night two
Fred Thompson B
Joe Leiberman D
George Bush D-
Night Three
Rudy Guiliani D
Mike Huckabee A-
Mitt Romney C
Sara Palin D-
Night Four
John McCain D
Best non-prime time speaker: Tim Pawenty
Haily Barbor C
Charlie Christ A-
Rick Perry F
Bob Riley D
Night two
Fred Thompson B
Joe Leiberman D
George Bush D-
Night Three
Rudy Guiliani D
Mike Huckabee A-
Mitt Romney C
Sara Palin D-
Night Four
John McCain D
Best non-prime time speaker: Tim Pawenty
Friday, September 5, 2008
The Pros and Cons of Sarah Palin
Pro's
-She's a woman
Cons
-No experience
-Ties to Ted Stevens
-Under Investigation
-Extreme right whinger
-will get owned by Biden in the debate
-Shows Hollow attempt for McCain to out
That's -5. Joe Lieberman would have been a better choice for god sake. she is a horrible choice!!
Palin is a horrible choice and will come back to bite McCain.
-She's a woman
Cons
-No experience
-Ties to Ted Stevens
-Under Investigation
-Extreme right whinger
-will get owned by Biden in the debate
-Shows Hollow attempt for McCain to out
That's -5. Joe Lieberman would have been a better choice for god sake. she is a horrible choice!!
Palin is a horrible choice and will come back to bite McCain.
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