Obama has appointed Timothy Guither as is Sec. of the treasury, Bill Richardson as Sec of Commerce, Tom Daschel as Sec of HHS and is set to appoint Hillary Clinton as Sec. Of state.
The stock market has soared the last two days over the news of Obama's appointment.
We Can Now call California's Fourth District for Tom McClentock (R) this makes the House D 257 to R 176 with 2 outstanding Races (OH-15 and LA-4)
Monday, November 24, 2008
Friday, November 14, 2008
Markets
The Dow lost 338 points (3.82%) today and 449 points (Aprox. 5%) on the week. GM gained 0.6 (2.03) Ford lost 0.10 (5.26%). Google lost 0.66% and Starbucks Starbucks lost 7.52%
Secratary of state short list leaked
there are 4 names on the Obama Sec. of state short list which have been leaked: Hillary Clinton, Tom Daschel, John Kerry and Bill Richardson. Most people are familiar with all four names. I Will Rank them in Likelihood:
1. John Kerry
2. Bill Richardson
3. Tom Daschel
4. Hillary Clinton
1. John Kerry
2. Bill Richardson
3. Tom Daschel
4. Hillary Clinton
Election Update
Don Young is the Projected Victor in Alaska's lone Congressional district. He is under investigation for corruption and was polling 5-12 points back, I guess his victory can be explained by Sarah Palin's name being on the ballot. This makes The House 257 Democrats to 175 Republicans with 3 Races still out CA-4, LA-4 (which is going to a runoff) and OH-15. The GOP Leads in the two non Runoff races. The Democrats saw more voters in the LA-4 Primary. All 3 of these races could go any way.
And Mark Begich has taken an 814 Vote lead from the Incumbent Senator and Convicted felon Ted Stevens. Five Thirty Eight is confident of a Begich Victory because of where the out standing vote comes from so I am Projecting Mark Begich will Defeat Ted Stevens. This makes the Senate 58-40.
Minnesota's Recount is set to begin next week Coleman leads by 206 but a 300+ Vote swing is very reasonable.
In Georgia the first runoff poll was released today which gives Chambliss a 3 point lead.
60 May be a long shot but it's not nearly dead.
Once Minnsesota (and hopefully some other house races) are called I will grade my final call (which was very accurate).
And Mark Begich has taken an 814 Vote lead from the Incumbent Senator and Convicted felon Ted Stevens. Five Thirty Eight is confident of a Begich Victory because of where the out standing vote comes from so I am Projecting Mark Begich will Defeat Ted Stevens. This makes the Senate 58-40.
Minnesota's Recount is set to begin next week Coleman leads by 206 but a 300+ Vote swing is very reasonable.
In Georgia the first runoff poll was released today which gives Chambliss a 3 point lead.
60 May be a long shot but it's not nearly dead.
Once Minnsesota (and hopefully some other house races) are called I will grade my final call (which was very accurate).
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Rise In Unemployment
200,000 Jobs were lost last month and Unemployment rose .2% to 6.5% it's highest point in the last 14 Years.
President-Elect Obama Plans to create Jobs and revenue. He Plans To pass a stimulus package as soon as he gets into office. this may include a bail out of the 3 big auto makers who's stock has fallen substantially in the last week.
President-Elect Obama Plans to create Jobs and revenue. He Plans To pass a stimulus package as soon as he gets into office. this may include a bail out of the 3 big auto makers who's stock has fallen substantially in the last week.
2 Races Called
Virginia's 5th District has been called for the democrat and Washington's 8th has been called for the republican incumbant. This means 4 Races Are still Out LA-4, CA-4, AK-AL and OH-15
The count in the House is now 257 Democrats and 174 Republicans
The count in the House is now 257 Democrats and 174 Republicans
Friday, November 7, 2008
Dem's Gain aothr House seat
CNN is Projecting that The Democrats have Picked up Maryland's 1st District. this Makes the Count: Dems 256 GOP 173. (Louisiana's 2ed is a safe Dem District)
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Obama's Cabnet
Raham Emanuel Has been Appointed Chief of Staff by President-elect Obama. He has also appointed Robert Gibbs to be his Press Secretary.
Election Results
Barack Obama is the President elect Of the United States winning with 364 Electoral Votes to John McCain's 164. Obama Picked up Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Indiana. His Popular Vote Margin stand at 7 points (53-46). He Broke the Popular Vote Record which Was set in 2004 by Bush (previously Reagan in 1984). His Popular vote Total currently stands at 64.5 Million with 98% in, It Could rise up to 66 Million.
The Senate is still up for grabs. It looks as though the 60 seat Majority is unobtainable but it is not yet impossible. the Senate Currently stands at 57 Democrats 40 Republicans 2 Deadlocked Races (MN and AK) and 1 runoff (GA). The Result in Alaska is not likely to be known until November 21st and Minnesota is not Likely to be known until early December. the Run Off Will be held in Georgia on December 2ed.
The House stands at 255 Democrats 173 Republicans and 7 undecided races in WA-8, CA-4
AK-AL, LA-4, MD-1, VA-5 and OH-15. after this election it is evident that House Polls are far less accurate than Other Polls.
The Democrats won one new Governor's Mansion in Missouri. Beverly Purdue Was elected In North Carolina. In Washington Christine Georgie was able to win re-election Fairly easily. The Governor's Mansions now stand at Democrats 29 Republicans 21.
Airizona (56-44), California(51-49) and Florida (62-38) All passed bans on Gay Marrige. Arizona is interesting because in 2006 a ban on gay Marrige failed. In Califorina Gay Marrige was legal until Tuesday. 3 Law suits have already been Filed against Prop 8. Also In California Prop 4 Failed (52-48), this would have forced Doctors to notify a Minors Parents within 48 hours of an abortion taking place. In Arkansaws Initiative 1 Passed (57-43) which prohibits gay Coupples from adopting Children. South Dekota Refused to put limits on abortion by a vote of 55-45. In Colorado Amenment 48 Passed which states that Life begins at conception. also in Colorado Amendment 46 which would end afirmative action is failing 51-49 but is still too close to call, The Same bill passed in Nebraska (58-42). In Mass. a proposition failed (70-30) which would end state Income tax. Washington Voted to allow Doctor Assisted Souicides by a vote of 59-41. In Michigan Marijana has been Decriminalized by a vote of 63-37. also in Michigan Stem Cell Research passed by a vote of 53-47.
The Senate is still up for grabs. It looks as though the 60 seat Majority is unobtainable but it is not yet impossible. the Senate Currently stands at 57 Democrats 40 Republicans 2 Deadlocked Races (MN and AK) and 1 runoff (GA). The Result in Alaska is not likely to be known until November 21st and Minnesota is not Likely to be known until early December. the Run Off Will be held in Georgia on December 2ed.
The House stands at 255 Democrats 173 Republicans and 7 undecided races in WA-8, CA-4
AK-AL, LA-4, MD-1, VA-5 and OH-15. after this election it is evident that House Polls are far less accurate than Other Polls.
The Democrats won one new Governor's Mansion in Missouri. Beverly Purdue Was elected In North Carolina. In Washington Christine Georgie was able to win re-election Fairly easily. The Governor's Mansions now stand at Democrats 29 Republicans 21.
Airizona (56-44), California(51-49) and Florida (62-38) All passed bans on Gay Marrige. Arizona is interesting because in 2006 a ban on gay Marrige failed. In Califorina Gay Marrige was legal until Tuesday. 3 Law suits have already been Filed against Prop 8. Also In California Prop 4 Failed (52-48), this would have forced Doctors to notify a Minors Parents within 48 hours of an abortion taking place. In Arkansaws Initiative 1 Passed (57-43) which prohibits gay Coupples from adopting Children. South Dekota Refused to put limits on abortion by a vote of 55-45. In Colorado Amenment 48 Passed which states that Life begins at conception. also in Colorado Amendment 46 which would end afirmative action is failing 51-49 but is still too close to call, The Same bill passed in Nebraska (58-42). In Mass. a proposition failed (70-30) which would end state Income tax. Washington Voted to allow Doctor Assisted Souicides by a vote of 59-41. In Michigan Marijana has been Decriminalized by a vote of 63-37. also in Michigan Stem Cell Research passed by a vote of 53-47.
Monday, November 3, 2008
First Results in
Dixville Notch, NH has voted, and the votes have been counted. at this hour Obama leads Obama in New Hampshire and Nationally:
Obama 15 (71%)
McCain 6 (29%)
0% reporting
this is only 21 votes out of an electorate of 130 Million (or roughly .0000008%). it is more symbolic than any thing. they haven't voted Democrat since 1968, but none the less at this hour it's Obama 15-6.
Obama 15 (71%)
McCain 6 (29%)
0% reporting
this is only 21 votes out of an electorate of 130 Million (or roughly .0000008%). it is more symbolic than any thing. they haven't voted Democrat since 1968, but none the less at this hour it's Obama 15-6.
Presidential Final Call
This is my final call, My final Prediction on the 2008 presidential election. I predict that the Barack Obama will be elected president of the united states tomorrow. I predict that the electoral count will be Obama 364 McCain 174 and that the popular vote will be Obama 52% McCain 46% Barr 2%. Here it is by state:
AL McCain by 18
AK McCain by 18
AZ McCain by 3
AR McCain by 11
CA Obama by 22
CO Obama by 8
CT Obama by
DE Obama by 23
DC Obama by 90
FL Obama by 4
GA MccCain by 3
HI Obama by 40
ID McCain by 37
IL Obama by 32
IN McCain by 1
IA Obama by 18
KS McCain by 19
KY McCain by 13
LA McCain by 11
ME Obama by 19
MD Obama by 20
MA Obama by 22
MI Obama by 17
MN Obama by 13
MS McCain by 9
MO Obama by 3
MT McCain by 2
NE McCain by 24
NV Obama by 6
NH Obama by 12
NJ Obama by 17
NM Obama by 12
NY Obama by 32
NC Obama by 3
ND McCain by 1
OH Obama by 6
OK McCain by 30
OR Obama by 18
PA Obama by 9
RI Obama by 34
SC McCain by 10
SD McCain by 8
TN McCain by 16
TX McCain by 12
UT Mcain by 42
VT Obama by 33
VA Obama by 8
WA Obama by 12
WV McCain by 9
WI Obama by 13
WY McCain by 37
AL McCain by 18
AK McCain by 18
AZ McCain by 3
AR McCain by 11
CA Obama by 22
CO Obama by 8
CT Obama by
DE Obama by 23
DC Obama by 90
FL Obama by 4
GA MccCain by 3
HI Obama by 40
ID McCain by 37
IL Obama by 32
IN McCain by 1
IA Obama by 18
KS McCain by 19
KY McCain by 13
LA McCain by 11
ME Obama by 19
MD Obama by 20
MA Obama by 22
MI Obama by 17
MN Obama by 13
MS McCain by 9
MO Obama by 3
MT McCain by 2
NE McCain by 24
NV Obama by 6
NH Obama by 12
NJ Obama by 17
NM Obama by 12
NY Obama by 32
NC Obama by 3
ND McCain by 1
OH Obama by 6
OK McCain by 30
OR Obama by 18
PA Obama by 9
RI Obama by 34
SC McCain by 10
SD McCain by 8
TN McCain by 16
TX McCain by 12
UT Mcain by 42
VT Obama by 33
VA Obama by 8
WA Obama by 12
WV McCain by 9
WI Obama by 13
WY McCain by 37
election Night Guide
This is my guide and time line on what to watch for tomorrow night
Presidential
- If Georgia is to close to call 45 Minutes after polls close the GOP is in for a long night.
- If Virginia or North Carolina are called for Obama early in the night the election is over
- If Pennsylvania is particularly close John McCain might have a shot.
- Obama can stand to loose Pennsylvania as long as he wins Ohio
- If Obama is down by 3-10 or less points in Missouri before 80% of the vote is in he will take the state
- If Minnesota is unable to be called within 30 minutes of when polls close McCain might have a shot in the state
- If you see a 13+ point margin for Obama in New Hampshire we are in landslide territory
- California, Oregon or Washington will probably put Obama over 270 at 11 EST/ 8 PST
- if McCain is not ahead at 10 EST/ 7 PST He will Loose
- if Obama is loosing the Popular vote by 5% or less before the west closes he will still win it
- Watch For a reverse Bradly effect in the south.
Senate:
- If the Democrats loose MN their Hopes of 60 are dead.
- If the Dem's Pull Kentucky off they will reach 60
- As long as Chambliss does not Reach 50% and they win MN it is going to December 2ed
Presidential
- If Georgia is to close to call 45 Minutes after polls close the GOP is in for a long night.
- If Virginia or North Carolina are called for Obama early in the night the election is over
- If Pennsylvania is particularly close John McCain might have a shot.
- Obama can stand to loose Pennsylvania as long as he wins Ohio
- If Obama is down by 3-10 or less points in Missouri before 80% of the vote is in he will take the state
- If Minnesota is unable to be called within 30 minutes of when polls close McCain might have a shot in the state
- If you see a 13+ point margin for Obama in New Hampshire we are in landslide territory
- California, Oregon or Washington will probably put Obama over 270 at 11 EST/ 8 PST
- if McCain is not ahead at 10 EST/ 7 PST He will Loose
- if Obama is loosing the Popular vote by 5% or less before the west closes he will still win it
- Watch For a reverse Bradly effect in the south.
Senate:
- If the Democrats loose MN their Hopes of 60 are dead.
- If the Dem's Pull Kentucky off they will reach 60
- As long as Chambliss does not Reach 50% and they win MN it is going to December 2ed
automatic calls
this is a list of sates for the non observer. These are the states (and their electoral vote count) which we can all just asume are going to go in one Direction. for example: pigs will be flying before a Democrat takes Utah (71% for Bush in 04), and it will be a cold day in hell before a republican takes Washington DC (91% for Kerry in 2004). These are a bit more adjusted to this election Cycle. The count of these is Obama 239 McCain 119
Obama
CA-55
CT-7
DE-3
HI-4
IL-21
IA-7
ME-4
MD-10
MA-12
MI-17
MN-10
NJ-15
NM-5
NY-31
OR-7
RI-4
VT-3
WA-11
WI-10
McCain
AL
AK
AR
ID
KS
KY
LA
MS
NE
OK
SD
TN
TX
UT
WY
Obama
CA-55
CT-7
DE-3
HI-4
IL-21
IA-7
ME-4
MD-10
MA-12
MI-17
MN-10
NJ-15
NM-5
NY-31
OR-7
RI-4
VT-3
WA-11
WI-10
McCain
AL
AK
AR
ID
KS
KY
LA
MS
NE
OK
SD
TN
TX
UT
WY
MyLiberal Election night prediction
Note: This is not my official prediction, this is a scenario in which Obama over preforms because the polls are in accurate. I will make my final Call later in the day.
if the polls are off I beleive this is what the map will look like. the electoral count would be: Obama 406 McCain 132. the Popular vote would break: Obama 54% McCain 44% Barr 2%
Obama wins:
AZ
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
IL
IN
IA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MO
MT
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OR
PA
RI
VT
VA
WA
WI
McCain Wins:
AL
AK
AR
ID
KS
KY
LA
MS
NE
OK
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
WV
WY
if the polls are off I beleive this is what the map will look like. the electoral count would be: Obama 406 McCain 132. the Popular vote would break: Obama 54% McCain 44% Barr 2%
Obama wins:
AZ
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
IL
IN
IA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MO
MT
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OR
PA
RI
VT
VA
WA
WI
McCain Wins:
AL
AK
AR
ID
KS
KY
LA
MS
NE
OK
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
WV
WY
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Senate Final Call
This is my final prediction on the senate. I will Predict the Presidency tomarrow. If these calls are accurate the senate will have at least 59 Democrats and 40 Republicans with one seat to be decided in a runoff on December 2ed.
AL: Sessions (R) by 32
AK: Begich (D) by 19
AR: Prior (D) by 100 ( unopposed)
CO: Udall (D) by 12
DE: Biden (D) by 40
GA*: Chambliss (R) 47% Martin (D) 45% Buckley (I) 8%
ID: Risch (R) by 21
IL: Durbin (D) by 23
IA: Harkin (D) by 21
KS: Roberts (R) by 24
KY: McConell (R) by 4
LA: Landriue (D) by 13
ME: Collins (R) by 14
MA: Kerry (D) by 19
MI: Levin (D) by 25
MN: Frankin (D) by 3
MS A: Cochran (R) by 20
MS B: Wicker (R) by 9
MT: Bacus (D) by 36
NE: Johanns (R) by 17
NH: Shahhen (D) by 10
NJ: Launtenburg (D) by 19
NM: Udall (D) by 18
NC: Hagan (D) by 6
OK: Inhofe (R) by 14
OR: Merkly (D) by 6
RI: Reed (D) by 61
SC: Graham (R) by 12
SD: Johnson (D) by 29
TN: Alexander (R) by 22
TX: Cornyn (R) by 12
VA: Warner (D) by 31
WV: Rockefeller (D) by 20
WY A: Enzi (R) by 34
WY B: Barosso (R) by 32
*- if no candidate reaches 50%+1 in Georgia the election will be decided on December 2ed in a runoff
AL: Sessions (R) by 32
AK: Begich (D) by 19
AR: Prior (D) by 100 ( unopposed)
CO: Udall (D) by 12
DE: Biden (D) by 40
GA*: Chambliss (R) 47% Martin (D) 45% Buckley (I) 8%
ID: Risch (R) by 21
IL: Durbin (D) by 23
IA: Harkin (D) by 21
KS: Roberts (R) by 24
KY: McConell (R) by 4
LA: Landriue (D) by 13
ME: Collins (R) by 14
MA: Kerry (D) by 19
MI: Levin (D) by 25
MN: Frankin (D) by 3
MS A: Cochran (R) by 20
MS B: Wicker (R) by 9
MT: Bacus (D) by 36
NE: Johanns (R) by 17
NH: Shahhen (D) by 10
NJ: Launtenburg (D) by 19
NM: Udall (D) by 18
NC: Hagan (D) by 6
OK: Inhofe (R) by 14
OR: Merkly (D) by 6
RI: Reed (D) by 61
SC: Graham (R) by 12
SD: Johnson (D) by 29
TN: Alexander (R) by 22
TX: Cornyn (R) by 12
VA: Warner (D) by 31
WV: Rockefeller (D) by 20
WY A: Enzi (R) by 34
WY B: Barosso (R) by 32
*- if no candidate reaches 50%+1 in Georgia the election will be decided on December 2ed in a runoff
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Governors Final Call
I predict that the new Governor count will be: 29 Democrats 21 Republicans. I predict the results as follows:
UT: Huntsman (R) by 60
ND: Hoeven (R) by 47
IN: Daniels (R) by 12
VT: Dougless (R) by 23 Reaching the 50%+1 Majority with Symington (D) in 2ed
MO:Nixon (D) by 17
NC: Purdue (D) by 3
WA: Georgie (D) by 6
MT: Schweitzer (D) by 26
DE: Markle (D) by 33
WV: Manchin (D) by 39
NH: Lynch (D) by 48
UT: Huntsman (R) by 60
ND: Hoeven (R) by 47
IN: Daniels (R) by 12
VT: Dougless (R) by 23 Reaching the 50%+1 Majority with Symington (D) in 2ed
MO:Nixon (D) by 17
NC: Purdue (D) by 3
WA: Georgie (D) by 6
MT: Schweitzer (D) by 26
DE: Markle (D) by 33
WV: Manchin (D) by 39
NH: Lynch (D) by 48
Governors Poll check And Ratings
I don't have new numbers or ratings today in any thing else. I am Making my final Call in the governors mansion today:
Strong Dem (27)
MO*: Nixon by 19
Lean Dem (29)
WA*: Georgie by 6
NC*: Purdue by 4
Tilt Dem (29)
None
Tilt GOP (21)
none
Lean GOP (21)
None
Strong GOP (21)
IN*: Daniels by 16
Strong Dem (27)
MO*: Nixon by 19
Lean Dem (29)
WA*: Georgie by 6
NC*: Purdue by 4
Tilt Dem (29)
None
Tilt GOP (21)
none
Lean GOP (21)
None
Strong GOP (21)
IN*: Daniels by 16
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