McCain's VP-down to eight

McCain is expected to announce his Veep this week and put an end to at least half of the Veep stakes. I am going to say that it will be one of the eight following people:

8. John Sununu (R-NH) Net: 0
Pro's: Mod. Republican helps with Independents
Con's: He can barely even keep his senate seat. Don't Expect them to Take NH with Sununu
7.Rudy Guiliani (R-NY) Net -1
Pro's: Beloved around the country
Con's:
1) no Experience
2) Sentence consist of "a noun and a verb and 9/11"
6. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) Net -1
Pro's: he can't hurt him
Con's:
1) No charisma
2) wont help him take MN
5. Charlie Christ (R-FL) net: +2
Pro's:
1) Helps in Florida
2) High approval
3) Moderate, Helps with ind.
Con's: Only helps in florida
4. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) net +1
Pro's:
1)Ultra Conservative, helps them come out to the polls.
2) Helps emphasize foreign Policy
Con's: will piss off democrats and Indy's
3. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) Net: -3
Pro's:
1) helps in the north east
2) Democrat's Veep in 2000
Con's:
1) no charisma
2) will piss every one off
3) used to be a democrat
4) the "Kiss of Death"
5) Won't help win any big states
2. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) net +4
Pro's:
1) the Second Place showing
2) Helps with Conservatives
3) Helps with Moderates
4) Most electable Veep by far
5) Helps GOP keep the south
Con's: a "Religious whack"
1.Mitt Romney (R-MA) net +1
Pro's:
1) Helps in Michigan and Colorado
2) Ultra Conservative
3) almost became GOP Nominee
4) Really "Chummy" with McCain
Con's:
1) Ultra Conservative, Hated by Liberals and Indy's
2) Mormonism
3) says things like "some people say we ought to close Gauntanimo, I say we ought to double Gautanimo."

McCain VP Picks- Down to 14

these are my 14 potential McCain Veeps:

Highly Likely (83% chance it will be one of the four):
Mitt Romney
Mike Huckabee
Joe Leiberman
Lindsey Graham

Somewhat Likely (9% chance it will be one of the two)
Charlie Christ
David Patrayus


Unlikely (7% it will be one of the 8)
Tim Pawlenty
Norm Coleman
Rob Portman
John Sununu
Fred Thompson
Rudy Guiliani
Jim Demint
Rick Perry

Obama VP picks- down to seven

I have taken three names off the potential Obama VP list. Richardson would run into too many problems, Haggle would likely be rejected at the convention and I finally Decided to Take off Clark for his Comments about McCain.
Here is my seven:

Most Likely to be picked (90% chance it will be one of the two):
Joe Biden
John Edwards

Unlikely Choices (8% chance it will be one of the three):
Bob Graham
Russ Fiengold
Tom Daschel

Very Unlikely Choices (1% chance it will be one of the two)
Sam Nunn
Kathleen Sabbillius

My Obama VP Tournament

In my last post I announced the 10 people who I feel are able to be VP. I am Confident it will be one of those 10 people. well, Inspired by CQ and MSNBC I am having a tournament over the next few days. Because there are 10 names two will have byes in the first round (#1 John Edwards and #2 Joe Biden)
Please vote at the bottom of the page.
Here are my first round Mach ups:

Match up 1
6.Sam Nunn
7.Russ Fiengold

Match up 2
4.Bob Graham
9.Chuck Haggle

Match Up 3
3.Tom Daschel
10.Bill Richardson

Matchup 4
5.Kathleen Sabillius
8.Wes Clark

Obama's VP- down to 10

I have been looking at the Obaba leaked short list and have thrown in a few names that people suspect are on there but weren't leaked. there are only 10 people who could possibly be picked. 3 on the short list have said they won't take it (Webb, Strickland and Clinton). A Mark Warner pick would take him out of an important senate battle which could help democrats get to 60. there are a lot of names on there (E.G. Chris Dodd, Bill Nelson, Jack Reed and Evan Bahy) who are in the senate in states that have Republican Governors. so if Obama wins and the democrats get to 60 the Republican governor would get to pick the replacement, therefor the GOP could filibuster. I took off Kaine and Jones because they aren't well known enough, and John Kerry because simply it won't be john Kerry. Here are the 10 possible picks:

On the Confirmed Shortlist:
John Edwards
Tom Daschel
Joe Biden
Kathleen Sabillius
Sam Nunn

on the "widely suspected" Short list:
Bill Richardson
Wes Clark
Bob Graham

Wild Cards:
Chuck Haggle
Russ Fiengold


I am Confident Obama's VP will be one of these 10 names. please tell me what you think of (a) Pick(s) by leaving a comment.

New Prdedictions in the Presidential election

the electoral count in my new prediction is Obama 349 McCain 189. the New Popular Vote Prediction is Obama 51% McCain 44% Barr 5%

Zogby 50 state tracking

this is Zogby's polls of 32 states. According to Zogby, the electoral count is Obama 273 McCain 160 To close to Call 105. here is the chart. I will adjust my prediction in a few days to include these numbers.

State	Obama	McCain	Nader	Barr	Obama-McCain
Massachusetts	54	29	3	5	25
Maryland	54	30	1	6	24
California	52	32	1	5	20
Illinois	52	32	1	5	20
Oregon	49	33	1	6	16
Minnesota	48	32	1	8	16
New Mexico	49	33	2	9	16
Connecticut	48	32	2	5	16
Michigan	47	33	2	6	14
New Jersey	49	36	2	3	13
Washington	48	35	2	5	13
Pennsylvania	46	36	2	5	10
Wisconsin	48	38	1	4	10
North Carolina	47	38	1	4	9
Virginia	44	39	1	4	5
Ohio	43	38	2	7	5
Iowa	42	38	1	8	4
Arizona	42	39	2	7	3
New Hampshire	40	37	2	10	3
Colorado	40	38	2	8	2
Missouri	42	40	1	6	2
Arkansas	41	39	1	4	2
South Carolina	42	41	1	6	1
Nevada	38	38	2	9	0
Indiana	39	40	0	7	-1
Florida	39	43	2	6	-4
Oklahoma	37	42	2	9	-5
Texas	36	41	1	7	-5
Kentucky	39	44	1	3	-5
Georgia	38	44	0	8	-6
Louisiana	40	47	1	4	-7
Alabama	36	47	0	4	-11

Polling accuracy

This is a study I did Based on the polling of the 2004, 2006 and 2008 (Primary) elections. this is the average amount of races they blow per election cycle. 0 is the perfect score
1. Zogby 1.67
2. Survey USA 1.74
3. Quinipiac 2.00
4. Mason Dixon 2.13
5. Gallup 2.33
6. RealClearPolitics* 2.67
7. Russmussen 3.00
8. Research 2000 3.00
9. Stratigic Vision 4.00
10. ARG 7.50

*- RCP is an Avrage of the polls. the primaries were an out lier, without them it would have a stunning 0.5

New House Ratings

I have the House Finally figured out. This could be a worse year for them than the GOP is anticipating.

Here are my new Ratings:

Safe Democrat (201 Dem 201):
CO-3
VT-AL
NH-2
MN-1
IN-7
CA-18
PA-10
AR-1
FL-22

Favored Democrat (211 Dem, 2 GOP 213):
CO-7
ME-1
CT-2
CT-5
KS-2
IN-8
IN-2
OH-18
CA-47
AL-5
AR-2
KY-3

IL-11
NY-13

Lean Democrat (229 Dem, 12 GOP 241)
MA-5
AZ-8
TX-23
IA-2
IA-3
WI-8
IN-9
IL-14
IL-8
PA-4
PA-8
NY-19
NY-20
NY-24
GA-12
LA-6
NC-11
MS-1

CO-4
NM-1
OH-15
OH-16
AK-AL
NJ-3
NJ-7
NY-25
AL-2
VA-11

Tossup/ Tilt Democrat (234 Dem, 22 GOP 256)
NH-1
OR-5
CA-11
PA-11
GA-8

KY-2
WY-AL
CT-4
MN-3
MI-7
OH-1
OH-7
CA-4
NY-26
NC-8

Tossup/ Tilt GOP (177 GOP, 2 Dem 179)
FL-25
FL-8
NV-3
AZ-3
IL-6
OH-2
OH-5
WA-8
NJ-5
LA-4

FL-16
TX-22

Lean GOP (167 GOP 167)
ID-1
TX-10
NE-2
MO-6
MN-6
MI-8
MI-9
MI-11
WA-5
MD-1
PA-6
PA-15
PA-18
NY-29
WV-2
FL-9
FL-13
FL-15
FL-21

Favored GOP (150 GOP 150)
CO-6
NV-2
NM-2
AZ-2
MO-9
MN-2
IN-3
IL-10
IL-18
IL-13
IL-15
IL-17
OH-3
OH-12
OH-14
CA-44
CA-45
CA-46
CA-50
CA-52
PA-3
NY-3
AL-3
IA-4
VA-2
VA-5
VA-10
FL-18

Safe GOP (122 GOP 122)
MI-3
MI-6
CA-3
CA-26
NC-10
FL-24

The GOP is down to just 122 safe seats as opposed to Democrats 201. My over all Caricaturization of the house is safe Democrat. If the Democrats can tap into the races that are Favored or Leaning GOP. If Scandals happen the same way they did in 2006, you could see the Democrats getting the GOP down to maybe as little as 100 seats. watch all Leaning or tossup races.

Montana: McCain to Obama

I am changing Montana from McCain to Obama in my prediction. This makes the EV count Obama 378 McCain 160.

I will Post New House Ratings ASAP and I have New Data for the election Guide.