Monday, December 31, 2007

Countdown continues

3 Days Till Iowa. I have new averages and a poll that I trust more than these:

Iowa (my Average)
Obama 29.4%
Edwards 28.2%
Clinton 26.8%
Richardson 4.5%

Huckabee 30.8%
Romney 27%
Thompson 11.8%
McCain 11.2%
Guliani 6%
Paul 5.4%

Iowa ( Des Monies Register Poll)
Obama 32%
Clinton 25%
Edwards 24%
Richardson 6%

Huckabee 32%
Romney 26%
McCain 13%
Thompson 9%
Paul 9%
Guliani 5%

Three things have happened between yesterday and today
1) Obama emerged
as the front runner
2) Guiani is now a joke
3) the republican nomination will likely be a two man race Through to the convention
Obama is now the front runner because he's leading in Iowa. If he wins it's he will probably win New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. he will by then have the money and the support to defeat Hillary most anywhere. I laid out my formula in one of my previous post.
Guliani is loosing to Ron Paul in Iowa and finishing a distant third in New Hampshire. he is no longer the national leader. His means of winning the nomination are now shot. He will no longer be ranked.
The Des Monies Register has historically been the most accurate Iowa poll. This is why I trust it above any other.
As I said yesterday If Huckabee wins Iowa and Looses New Hampshire there will be a dead heat two man race all the way to the convention. He is leading in Iowa and Far Behind in New Hampshire. Here are My new Rankings:



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