Sunday, December 30, 2007

4 Days till Iowa. I have new Iowa Averages:
Edwards 28.6%
Obama 28.4%
Clinton 26.8%
Richardson 4%

Huccabee 30.6%
Romney 26.8%
Thompson 13.2%
Mccain 10.2%
Guliani 5.4%
Paul 4.6%

This shows 2 things 1) the democratic race is a pure tossup and will likely be decided by next Tuesday, and 2) Guliani is on his last legs. Let me explain. Here is my democratic formula Obama wins Iowa = Obama wins nomination, Clinton wins Iowa = Clinton wins nomination
Edwards wins Iowa = person who takes 2 early states (IA, NH, NV and SC) wins nomination If 2 people have done so the nomination is a complete the republicans aren't that easy if Romney wins Iowa Romney is the nominee, if Huccabee wins Iowa and New Hampshire he wins, but if Huccabee wins Iowa and Romney New Hampshire, we are in for a two way race that could last till the convention. as an electioneer and a Democrat I hope to see that happen. It would be the most exciting thing since 2000. now In Iowa Guliani is about tied with Ron Paul. if he Looses and finishes a distant 3ed in New Hampshire he will not have the strength to win any thing big. If he drops behind Ron Paul He will not be ranked .Here are my rankings:


(2ed Tier)
3.Guliani (on his last legs)

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