Thursday, December 27, 2007

Things are really heating up in the Presidential race I am blogging Every day from now to the Iowa caucus.
I have averaged out the polls for the first few states. Here are my findings:

Iowa
Obama 30.6%
Clinton 26.6%
Edwards 25%
Richardson 5.7%

Huccabee 31.2%
Romney 27%
Thompson 11.4%
Mccain 11.4%
Guliani 6.2%
Paul 4.8%
New Hampshire
Obama 31.3%
Clinton 30.3%
Edwards 16.3%
Richardson 7.7%

Romney 31.7%
Mccain 24%
Guliani 13.7%
Hucabee 10%
Paul 8.3%
Thompson 3%
Michigan
Democrats Boycoted Primary

Romney 20.5%
Hucabee 19%
Mccain 11.5%
Guliani 11.5%
Thompson 6%
Paul 3%
Nevada
Clinton 34%
Obama 26%
Edwards 9%
Richardson 7%

Guliani 26.5%
Romney 20%
Hucabee 11%
Thompson 11%
Mccain 7.5%
Paul 6%
South Carolina
Obama 29.3%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 15%
Richardson 4.3%

Hucabee 23.7%
Romney 16.3%
Guliani 15.3%
Thompson 13.7%
Mccain 10.3%
Paul 4.3%
Florida
Democrats Boycott Florida
Guliani 26.5%
Huccabee 21%
Romney 16.5%
Mccain 14%
Thompson 9%
Paul 3%
Looking at these numbers the race is closer than it ever has been. Fred Thompson will no longer be ranked. He is out of serious contention. Mccain's Credibility has dropped as has Rudy Guliani's the republican race will be between Romney and huccabee in all likelihood. Any one of the top 3 Democrats have a chance. At this point in 2004 John Kerry was down by 25% in New Hampshire. that is Edwards final hope: that one
week from today he will be able to pull a "John Kerry" where he wins Iowa and that gives him a massive jump in other places. Here are my new rankings:
Democrats
1.Obama
2.Clinton
3.Edwards
Republicans
1.Romney
2.Huccabee
(Tier separation)
3.Guliani
4.McCain (on his last legs)


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