Countdown continues

3 Days Till Iowa. I have new averages and a poll that I trust more than these:

Iowa (my Average)
Obama 29.4%
Edwards 28.2%
Clinton 26.8%
Richardson 4.5%

Huckabee 30.8%
Romney 27%
Thompson 11.8%
McCain 11.2%
Guliani 6%
Paul 5.4%

Iowa ( Des Monies Register Poll)
Obama 32%
Clinton 25%
Edwards 24%
Richardson 6%

Huckabee 32%
Romney 26%
McCain 13%
Thompson 9%
Paul 9%
Guliani 5%

Three things have happened between yesterday and today
1) Obama emerged as the front runner
2) Guiani is now a joke
3) the republican nomination will likely be a two man race Through to the convention
Obama is now the front runner because he's leading in Iowa. If he wins it's he will probably win New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. he will by then have the money and the support to defeat Hillary most anywhere. I laid out my formula in one of my previous post.
Guliani is loosing to Ron Paul in Iowa and finishing a distant third in New Hampshire. he is no longer the national leader. His means of winning the nomination are now shot. He will no longer be ranked.
The Des Monies Register has historically been the most accurate Iowa poll. This is why I trust it above any other.
As I said yesterday If Huckabee wins Iowa and Looses New Hampshire there will be a dead heat two man race all the way to the convention. He is leading in Iowa and Far Behind in New Hampshire. Here are My new Rankings:

1.Obama
2t.Edward
2t.Clinton


1.Romney
2.Huckabee

4 Days till Iowa. I have new Iowa Averages:
Iowa
Edwards 28.6%
Obama 28.4%
Clinton 26.8%
Richardson 4%

Huccabee 30.6%
Romney 26.8%
Thompson 13.2%
Mccain 10.2%
Guliani 5.4%
Paul 4.6%

This shows 2 things 1) the democratic race is a pure tossup and will likely be decided by next Tuesday, and 2) Guliani is on his last legs. Let me explain. Here is my democratic formula Obama wins Iowa = Obama wins nomination, Clinton wins Iowa = Clinton wins nomination
Edwards wins Iowa = person who takes 2 early states (IA, NH, NV and SC) wins nomination If 2 people have done so the nomination is a complete tossup.now the republicans aren't that easy if Romney wins Iowa Romney is the nominee, if Huccabee wins Iowa and New Hampshire he wins, but if Huccabee wins Iowa and Romney New Hampshire, we are in for a two way race that could last till the convention. as an electioneer and a Democrat I hope to see that happen. It would be the most exciting thing since 2000. now In Iowa Guliani is about tied with Ron Paul. if he Looses and finishes a distant 3ed in New Hampshire he will not have the strength to win any thing big. If he drops behind Ron Paul He will not be ranked .Here are my rankings:

1t.Edwards
1t.Obama
1t.Clinton

1.Romney
2.Huccabee
(2ed Tier)
3.Guliani (on his last legs)

2008 presidental count down 5 days

5 days to Iowa. I have no news from Iowa or New Hampshire. Here are my rankings(witch stand from yesterday):
1.Obama
2t.Clinton
2t.Edwards

1.Romney
2. Huccabee
(tier separation)
3.Guliani

The entire republican nomination can come down to the Wyoming Convention witch we know little to nothing about. if any of the top 3 take it they may be well on their way to the nomination.
here is the primary schedule
Iowa 1/3 ( this Thursday)*
Wyoming 1/5 (Republicans only) (this Saturday)^
New Hampshire 1/8 (Next Tuesday)
Michigan 1/15 (Democrats striped it of it's delegates)
Nevada 1/19 *
South Carolina 1/19 (Republicans only)
South Carolina 1/26 (Democrats only)
Florida 1/29 (Democrats striped it of it's delegates)
Super Tuesday 2/5

The Election is 6 days away. I have new averages from Iowa and New Hampshire. here they are:

Iowa
Obama 29.8%
Clinton 27.4%
Edwards 26.6%
Richardson 5%

Hucabee 31%
Romney 27%
Thompson 11.8%
McCain 11.4%
Guliani 6.2%
Paul 4.8%

New Hampshire
Obama 31.5%
Clinton 30.3%
Edwards 17.5%
Richardson 6.8%

Romney 32.3%
McCain 23%
Guliani 13.8%
Huccabee 11%
Paul 7.3%
Thompson 3.3%

These numbers mean the Democratic race in Iowa is a 3 way dead heat. Obama Has a slight advantage. McCain will not win the nomination unless he pulls off a miraculous showing in Iowa. His chances are now shot McCain will no longer be ranked Because of this. Here are my new rankings:
1.Obama
2t.Clinton
2t.Edwards

1.Romney
2.Huccabee
(Tier separation)
3.Guliani

Things are really heating up in the Presidential race I am blogging Every day from now to the Iowa caucus.
I have averaged out the polls for the first few states. Here are my findings:

Iowa
Obama 30.6%
Clinton 26.6%
Edwards 25%
Richardson 5.7%

Huccabee 31.2%
Romney 27%
Thompson 11.4%
Mccain 11.4%
Guliani 6.2%
Paul 4.8%
New Hampshire
Obama 31.3%
Clinton 30.3%
Edwards 16.3%
Richardson 7.7%

Romney 31.7%
Mccain 24%
Guliani 13.7%
Hucabee 10%
Paul 8.3%
Thompson 3%
Michigan
Democrats Boycoted Primary

Romney 20.5%
Hucabee 19%
Mccain 11.5%
Guliani 11.5%
Thompson 6%
Paul 3%
Nevada
Clinton 34%
Obama 26%
Edwards 9%
Richardson 7%

Guliani 26.5%
Romney 20%
Hucabee 11%
Thompson 11%
Mccain 7.5%
Paul 6%
South Carolina
Obama 29.3%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 15%
Richardson 4.3%

Hucabee 23.7%
Romney 16.3%
Guliani 15.3%
Thompson 13.7%
Mccain 10.3%
Paul 4.3%
Florida
Democrats Boycott Florida
Guliani 26.5%
Huccabee 21%
Romney 16.5%
Mccain 14%
Thompson 9%
Paul 3%
Looking at these numbers the race is closer than it ever has been. Fred Thompson will no longer be ranked. He is out of serious contention. Mccain's Credibility has dropped as has Rudy Guliani's the republican race will be between Romney and huccabee in all likelihood. Any one of the top 3 Democrats have a chance. At this point in 2004 John Kerry was down by 25% in New Hampshire. that is Edwards final hope: that one week from today he will be able to pull a "John Kerry" where he wins Iowa and that gives him a massive jump in other places. Here are my new rankings:
Democrats
1.Obama
2.Clinton
3.Edwards
Republicans
1.Romney
2.Huccabee
(Tier separation)
3.Guliani
4.McCain (on his last legs)

I have new senate and presidential ratings so here they are:
The race for president:
We are just 3 weeks away from knowing the results of both Iowa and New Hampshire. Barak Obama now has the lead in 3 of the first 4 primaries New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina. Clinton still has a 10 point edge in national numbers but that should fall if Obama wins these.
I am No longer Ranking Kucinich or Gravel because they have less than a snowballs shot in hell of wining the Primaries. Here are the Democrats:
1st Tier
1. Barak Obama
2ed Tier
2. John Edwards
3.Hillary Clinton
3ed Tier
4. Joe Biden
5.Bill Richardson
6. Chris Dodd

Republicans
Huccabee is now surging all over the nation. He will win Iowa where he is ahead in polls by 10-15% he can take the loss in new Hampshire because he's leading in South Carolina and mabie even Michigan. Romney has lost his credibility. he's loosing the early primaries in witch he donated so much time, money and Staff. I am no longer ranking Paul, Tenchredo, Keyes or Hunter (For Now at least).

Republicans
1st tier
1.Huccabee
2.Romney
2ed tier
3.Fred Thompson
3ed tier
4.Rudy Guliani
5.John Mccain
November prediction
Obama 329
Huccabee 209
The Senate

The map has changed unimaginably in the last 2 weeks. There is a new poll in witch ted Stevens in Alaska is loosing by 8 points. Trent Lott announced his resignation. Noriega announced his candidacy in Texas.Kennedy a moderate Republican in Louisiana announced his candidacy and is down by just 4% in polls. This race is now competitive. I am now Dividing my ratings in to 5 category's until election day gets a bit closer. They are Strong Dem / Rep, Leaning Dem/Rep and Tossup.
Here are My Ratings:
Strong Dem (11D,3R)
AR
DE
IL
IA
MA
MI
MT
NH
NJ
NM
RI
SD
WV
VA
Lean Dem (0D,1R)
CO
Tossup
AK-R
KY-R
LA-D
MN-R
Lean Rep(4R)
NC
TX
OR
MS-(Lott)
Strong Rep(11R)
AL
ID
ME
MS-(Chochran)
NE
OK
SC
TN
WY-(Enzi)
WY-(Barrosso)
GA
Rankings (Previous Rank)
1.VA(1)
2.NM(3)
3.NH (2)
4.CO(4)
5.AK(7)
6.MN(5)
7.LA(13)
8.KY(6)
9.NC(8)
10.MS(Lott)(N/A)
11.TX(14)
12.OR(9)
13.TN(12)
14.GA(10)
15.ME(15)
November Prediction
Dem 58
Rep 42

I am rating all 2008 elections as well as Giving my Opinion on Each race.


1. the Race For President

Hillary Clinton will not win the nomination for the democrats nor will Rudy Guliani for the Republicans. The winner will most likely be the winners of Iowa and failing that the winner of the early primaries. Neither Hillary or Guliani have the amount of support or the type of support to win the Iowa caucuses . Hillary lost a major advantage this week when the DNC stripped Michigan of it's 145 Delegates to the convention. The race in each party is between the "honest city slicker" (Barak Obama (Dem) and Mitt Romney (Rep)) and the "grass roots fighter for the middle class" (John Edwards (Dem) and Mike Huccabee (rep) here are my ratings:
Democrats
1.Obama
2.Edwards
3.Clinton
Tier separation
4.Biden
5. Dodd
6.Ricardson
Tier separation
7.Kucinich
8.Gravel

Republicans
1. Romney
Tier separation
2. Thompson
3. Huccabee
Tier Separation
4. Guliani
5. Mccain
6. Paul
Tier Separation
7. Hunter
8. Tenchredo
9. Keyes
November Prediction
Obama -(VP) Edwards 400
Romney- Kyl 138


2. The senate
the Republicans have already lost the senate. They have a chance for 1 pickup in Louisiana. The democrats have already Insured 1 pickup in VA. the Republican minority leader is only talking about warding off Blows and is worrying about his own seat in Kentucky. The democrats could potentially win a Veto Proof majority Here are My Ratings


Safe Dem (50D 1R )
Arkansans
Delaware#
Illinois
Iowa
Massachusetts
Michigan
Montana
New Jersey
Rode Island
South Decoda
Virginia*
West Virginia
Favored Dem ( 1D 2R)
Louisiana
New Hampshire
New Mexico*
Lean Dem (0D 1R)
Colorado*
Toss up (0D,2R)
Minnesota
Kentucky
Lean Republican ( 0D 3R)
Alaska#
North Carolina
Oregon
Republican Favored (0D 7R)
Idaho*
Maine
Mississippi(Lott)*^
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Safe Rep(32R 0D)
Alabama
Kansas
Mississippi (Cochran)
South Carolina
Wyoming (Enzi)
Wyoming (Barrosa)

Rankings of Switch likely hood
1.VA
2.NH
3.NM
4.CO
5.MN
6.KY
7.AK
8.NC
9.OR
10.NE
11.GA
12.TN
13.MS^
14.LA
15.TX
November Prediction
59 Dem
41 Rep

3.the House
The House is too Complex to even begin to explain here are my ratings
Lean Dem Pickup - 2
OH 15*
CT-3#
Dem held Tossups-5
TX 22
FL 16
KS 2
IA 1
IN 7
Republican held Tossups -8
OH 2*
FL 13
AZ 1*
VA 2*
IL 14*
WA 8
WY AL
AK AL

Total
Dem 230
Rep 192
Toss up 13
4.Governors Ratings
Safe Dem (3D)
Montana
Delaware
New Jersey
Favored Dem (1D 1R)
Missouri
North Carolina
Lean Dem
None
Tossup (1D)
Washington
Lean Rep(1R)
Indiana
Favored Rep(1R)
Vermont
Safe Rep (2R)
Utah
North Decoda

2008 senate race ratings

Toss up (3Republicans 0Democrats)
Minnesota (Coleman v. Frankin) Coleman leads in polls 46-36 but the money race is tight.
Georgia ( Cambliss *) Cambliss fends off Dems in polls as close as42-40
Kentucky (Mcconell v. Chandler)Mcconell leads in one poll 45-44 while in another chandler leads 55-42.
Lean Republican (2Rep 0Dem)
North Carolina (Dole*) In polls Dole fends off Dems by about 10%
Organ (Smith*) In polls he looses to DeFazo the dems strongest candidate 42-38 but he dose not have strong opposition unless Wu of the 2ed district steps in
Leans Democratic (1 Dem 0 Rep)
Montana (Bacus*) In polls he wins 48-44 But he has a strong 73% approval
Rating
Republican Favored (2 Rep 0 Dem )
Texas (Cornyn*) In polls he is up 48-37 and in Gov. race the Dem only lost by 9%
Maine (Collins v. Allen) Chafee also a Moderate republican with a high Approval Rating lost 53-47 in RI But Collins Leads In polls 59-30
Democrats Favored (1 Dem 1 Rep)
Colorado (Allard retired) (Udall v. Schafer) Allared retired in January. Udall stepped in and all the strong potential Republican cantidates have announced they wont run . the front runner for the republicans is unheard of in the world of politics and has little to no chance. on top of that CO has been trending Democratic electing a democratic Sen in 2004, Gov in 2006 and a 5-4 US House majority
Louisiana (landrieu*) Although some blame Katrina on her she can blame it on the republican administration. Her only strong opposition is Jindal who will probably be elected as Governor she leads in polls against candidates by at least 15%
Strong (but not yet safe) Democratic (2 Dem 1Rep)
New Hampshire (Sununu v. Shaheen) in polls Shaheen leads 57-29 NO incumbent has ever come back from a gap that big
Arkansas (Pryor*) He Has a High approval rating but only won by 8 % in 2002
South Decoda (Johnson*) if he runs witch he probably will he will win. he has a 72% approval rating.
Not enough Info to rate (5 Rep 0 Dem)
Virginia( Warner*)- mark warner may run and if sen. john warner retires he will win but if he does not john warner has the seat
Tennessee (Alexander*)- If Harold Ford Runs this Race becomes a toss up If not Alexander Is most likely Safe
New Mexico (Dominci*) it is unclear how the us attorney firings will effect his reelection bid
Oaklahoma (Inhoffe*) He dennied global warming. He is probably safe but there have been no polls so far.
Wyoming B seat ( Barrosa*) He was appointed to fill creig thomas' seat recently it is unclear how he will be viewed.
Every one else is safe ( 35Rep seats and 47 Dem seats)
*- not yet opposed
safe strong Favored lean toss up 3 No Info 5
47 50 52 53 democratic seats
35 35 37 39 republican seats