Although I do not Usually make my congressional Primary final calls Public or talk about them in this blog, this one is exceptionally close and Important. by the way I picked Don Young in this one.
Lindsay Politics is ready to Project that Don Young is the Apparent Victor in the 2008 Alaska GOP House Primary. Here are the Results as of now:
100.0% Reporting
X-Don Young 45.47% (42,548) +151 Votes (0.16%)
Steve Parnell 45.31% (42,397)
What does this mean? the democrats are now extremely Likely to defeat Young. He is under indictment and is now exceedingly unpopular. You can all but surely give this one to the democrats in November.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
McCain VP Final Call
The McCain VP short list is expected to consist of five names: Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Joe Leiberman and Eric Cantor.
My Final Call as I have layed out in nearly every post on McCain's VP is that he will choose...........
Mitt Romney.
My Final Call as I have layed out in nearly every post on McCain's VP is that he will choose...........
Mitt Romney.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Breaking news-Obama picks his VP
Thursday, August 21, 2008
New Presidential Ratings
I will start poll checks and races to watch up again next time I rate the race. I am Changing My Popular Vote Prediction to Obama 50% McCain 46% Barr 4% Here are my new Ratings:
Safe Obama (207 EV)
CA
HI
WA
OR
WI
IL
IA
DC
MD
NJ
DE
NY
CT
RI
MA
ME
VT
Lean Obama (260 EV)
MN
MI
PA
NM
Tilt Obama (311 EV)
NH
NV
OH
CO
VA
Tilt McCain (227 EV)
MT
ND
IN
NC
FL
MO
Lean McCain (157)
SD
AK
AR
LA
MS
GA
SC
WV
Safe McCain (102)
AL
AZ
ID
KS
KY
NE
OK
TN
TX
UT
WY
here is my map with tossups
Here it is without
Safe Obama (207 EV)
CA
HI
WA
OR
WI
IL
IA
DC
MD
NJ
DE
NY
CT
RI
MA
ME
VT
Lean Obama (260 EV)
MN
MI
PA
NM
Tilt Obama (311 EV)
NH
NV
OH
CO
VA
Tilt McCain (227 EV)
MT
ND
IN
NC
FL
MO
Lean McCain (157)
SD
AK
AR
LA
MS
GA
SC
WV
Safe McCain (102)
AL
AZ
ID
KS
KY
NE
OK
TN
TX
UT
WY
here is my map with tossups
Here it is without
Obama VP Final Call
Obama is set to announce his VP Friday in an e-mail and formally announce it Saturday. I am Calling it today. Obama's VP short list Consist of: Evan Bahy, Tim Kaine, Kathleen Sabillius and Joe Biden. If my Final Call is Accurate Obama Will Pick...............
Joe Biden
Before Looking at why Biden is qualified lets look at why the others won't be picked.
Sabillius Lacks Foreign Policy experience and is a woman. Sexism and Racism on the same ticket will not be good for the democratic party. She also Lacks Charisma and won't help much (if at all) in the mid west.
Bahy, Where to start. For one he has zero charisma. He is planning a possible 2012 or 2016 run and Obama said "I don't want someone who wants to be president some day. He is considered by many to be a DINO (Democrat In Name Only). He would hurt the democrats chances of getting 60 seats in November (GOP Governor appoints GOP Replacement if he is elected.) Bahy will not be the choice.
Now that leaves us with two: Tim Kane and Joe Biden
Let's Talk Kaine
Con's
1) Mark Warner is giving the Keynote address at the Democratic convention.
2) Kaine has a chance of being President
3) Kaine is Pro-Life
4) No Experience
Pro's
5) Kaine Helps in Virginia and North Carolina.
6) Kaine is Charismatic
7) Kaine Endorsed Obama Early
Now let's look at Biden
Con's
1) Runs his mouth off a bit much
Pro's
2) Relates to Common people
3) would help all through the upper Midwest.
4) Strong Foreign policy credentials
5) engineered The Best Iraq plan there is
6) one of the biggest Bush Critics
7) Great speaker
8) Reagan/Kennedy-esq sense of humor
Biden has a net of +6 to Kaine's -1. Kaine could be the choice but right now all odds favor Biden.
These are the odds I would give to Obama's VP choices
Biden 95%
Kaine 4%
Other 1%
Joe Biden
Before Looking at why Biden is qualified lets look at why the others won't be picked.
Sabillius Lacks Foreign Policy experience and is a woman. Sexism and Racism on the same ticket will not be good for the democratic party. She also Lacks Charisma and won't help much (if at all) in the mid west.
Bahy, Where to start. For one he has zero charisma. He is planning a possible 2012 or 2016 run and Obama said "I don't want someone who wants to be president some day. He is considered by many to be a DINO (Democrat In Name Only). He would hurt the democrats chances of getting 60 seats in November (GOP Governor appoints GOP Replacement if he is elected.) Bahy will not be the choice.
Now that leaves us with two: Tim Kane and Joe Biden
Let's Talk Kaine
Con's
1) Mark Warner is giving the Keynote address at the Democratic convention.
2) Kaine has a chance of being President
3) Kaine is Pro-Life
4) No Experience
Pro's
5) Kaine Helps in Virginia and North Carolina.
6) Kaine is Charismatic
7) Kaine Endorsed Obama Early
Now let's look at Biden
Con's
1) Runs his mouth off a bit much
Pro's
2) Relates to Common people
3) would help all through the upper Midwest.
4) Strong Foreign policy credentials
5) engineered The Best Iraq plan there is
6) one of the biggest Bush Critics
7) Great speaker
8) Reagan/Kennedy-esq sense of humor
Biden has a net of +6 to Kaine's -1. Kaine could be the choice but right now all odds favor Biden.
These are the odds I would give to Obama's VP choices
Biden 95%
Kaine 4%
Other 1%
Saturday, August 9, 2008
New Senate Poll check and Ratings
Poll Check
LA- Landriue (D) By 6
NJ-Launtenberg (D) by 15
AK-Begich (D) by 17
CO- Udall (D) By 7
KS-Roberts (R) by 28
KY-McConell (R) by 9.3
ME-Collins (R) by 10
MN- Coleman (R) by 6
MS- Wicker (R) by 5
NH- Shaheen (D) by 14
NM-Udall (D) by 27.3
NC- Dole (R) by 8.5
OR- Smith (R) by 3
TX- Cornyn (R) by 4.5
VA- Warner (D) by 24
Ratings:
Strong Dem (55: 50 D 5 R)
NJ
AK
CO
VA
NM
NH
Lean Dem (56: 51 D 5 R)
LA
Tilt Dem (57: 51 D 6 R)
MS
Tilt GOP (43: 43 R)
TX
OR
MN
Lean GOP (40: 40R)
NC
KY
ME
Strong GOP (37: 37 R)
KS
Taken Off Watch: Kansas
Races To Watch: Oregon, Mississippi & Minnesota
Mississippi is an interesting race. The seat opened when Trent Lott Resigned. Watch the African American Turn out. 42% of Mississippi is black and if they turn out and vote, the Democrats Will do better than they are polling.
Gordon Smith is a Moderate Republican, He has ran adds Praising Obama and has not yet endorsed McCain. Some could argue that he votes with the democrats the majority of the time. this race will stay close. His Chalenger Merleky was ahead for a short time. My guess is that smith will come out the winner but it's any ones game.
Minnesota is Fluctuating. Franken wasn't helped much by the Edwards Affair (Edwards Campaigned with him earlier in the week) but it should have a slim to nil effect. it will fluctuate right up till the end. it's way too early to make any predictions on this race.
LA- Landriue (D) By 6
NJ-Launtenberg (D) by 15
AK-Begich (D) by 17
CO- Udall (D) By 7
KS-Roberts (R) by 28
KY-McConell (R) by 9.3
ME-Collins (R) by 10
MN- Coleman (R) by 6
MS- Wicker (R) by 5
NH- Shaheen (D) by 14
NM-Udall (D) by 27.3
NC- Dole (R) by 8.5
OR- Smith (R) by 3
TX- Cornyn (R) by 4.5
VA- Warner (D) by 24
Ratings:
Strong Dem (55: 50 D 5 R)
NJ
AK
CO
VA
NM
NH
Lean Dem (56: 51 D 5 R)
LA
Tilt Dem (57: 51 D 6 R)
MS
Tilt GOP (43: 43 R)
TX
OR
MN
Lean GOP (40: 40R)
NC
KY
ME
Strong GOP (37: 37 R)
KS
Taken Off Watch: Kansas
Races To Watch: Oregon, Mississippi & Minnesota
Mississippi is an interesting race. The seat opened when Trent Lott Resigned. Watch the African American Turn out. 42% of Mississippi is black and if they turn out and vote, the Democrats Will do better than they are polling.
Gordon Smith is a Moderate Republican, He has ran adds Praising Obama and has not yet endorsed McCain. Some could argue that he votes with the democrats the majority of the time. this race will stay close. His Chalenger Merleky was ahead for a short time. My guess is that smith will come out the winner but it's any ones game.
Minnesota is Fluctuating. Franken wasn't helped much by the Edwards Affair (Edwards Campaigned with him earlier in the week) but it should have a slim to nil effect. it will fluctuate right up till the end. it's way too early to make any predictions on this race.
House Ratings
Safe Dem ( 208: 207 D, 1 R)
CO-3
VT-AL
NH-2
MN-1
IN-7
CA-18
CA-20
PA-10
FL-22
AR-1
AR-2
AR-3
CA-47
KS-2
VA-11
Favored Dem (221: 216 D 5 R)
KY-3
AL-5
OH-18
CT-2
CT-5
CO-7
IN-8
AZ-8
IN-2
IL-11
NY-13
NY-25
AZ-1
Lean Dem (242: 231 D 11 R)
MA-5
NH-1
OR-5
WI-8
IL-14
IN-9
MS-1
IA-2
IA-3
TX-23
IL-8
PA-4
PA-8
NY-20
NY-19
OH-16
OH-15
CO-4
AK-AL
AL-2
NJ-3
Tilt Dem (256: 234 D 22R)
PA-11
CA-11
FL-16
PA-3
NJ-7
MI-7
WY-AL
CA-4
NV-3
AZ-3
KY-2
NC-8
CT-4
NY-26
Tilt GOP (179: 177 R 2 D)
FL-21
FL-25
NJ-5
MN-3
WA-8
TX-10
OH-1
OH-2
FL-8
IL-6
LA-4
MO-6
TX-22
LA-6
Lean GOP (163: 163 R 0 D)
FL-13
MD-1
NY-29
TN-7
NC-10
TX-32
OH-7
OH-5
MN-6
NE-2
ID-1
MI-8
MI-9
MI-11
WA-5
PA-6
PA-15
WV-2
FL-9
FL-15
CA-26
Favored GOP (141: 141 R 0 D)
FL-24
CA-50
IL-10
KY-4
CO-6
NV-2
NM-2
AZ-2
MO-9
IN-3
IL-10
IL-13
IL-15
IL-17
OH-3
OH-4
CA-44
CA-45
CA-46
NY-3
AL-3
IA-4
VA-5
VA-10
FL-18
Safe GOP (116: 116R 0D)
MI-3
MI-6
CA-3
CO-3
VT-AL
NH-2
MN-1
IN-7
CA-18
CA-20
PA-10
FL-22
AR-1
AR-2
AR-3
CA-47
KS-2
VA-11
Favored Dem (221: 216 D 5 R)
KY-3
AL-5
OH-18
CT-2
CT-5
CO-7
IN-8
AZ-8
IN-2
IL-11
NY-13
NY-25
AZ-1
Lean Dem (242: 231 D 11 R)
MA-5
NH-1
OR-5
WI-8
IL-14
IN-9
MS-1
IA-2
IA-3
TX-23
IL-8
PA-4
PA-8
NY-20
NY-19
OH-16
OH-15
CO-4
AK-AL
AL-2
NJ-3
Tilt Dem (256: 234 D 22R)
PA-11
CA-11
FL-16
PA-3
NJ-7
MI-7
WY-AL
CA-4
NV-3
AZ-3
KY-2
NC-8
CT-4
NY-26
Tilt GOP (179: 177 R 2 D)
FL-21
FL-25
NJ-5
MN-3
WA-8
TX-10
OH-1
OH-2
FL-8
IL-6
LA-4
MO-6
TX-22
LA-6
Lean GOP (163: 163 R 0 D)
FL-13
MD-1
NY-29
TN-7
NC-10
TX-32
OH-7
OH-5
MN-6
NE-2
ID-1
MI-8
MI-9
MI-11
WA-5
PA-6
PA-15
WV-2
FL-9
FL-15
CA-26
Favored GOP (141: 141 R 0 D)
FL-24
CA-50
IL-10
KY-4
CO-6
NV-2
NM-2
AZ-2
MO-9
IN-3
IL-10
IL-13
IL-15
IL-17
OH-3
OH-4
CA-44
CA-45
CA-46
NY-3
AL-3
IA-4
VA-5
VA-10
FL-18
Safe GOP (116: 116R 0D)
MI-3
MI-6
CA-3
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Obama VP's - Down to four (Three Really)
he shortlist has been leaked and there are four names left on it:
4. Sen. Evan Bahy (D-IN)
Now the only thing I know about the selection at this point is that it will not be Evan Bahy for two Reasons. 1) He's boring 2) If Obama wins and the Democrats get to 60 the governor of Indiana (Likely to remain Republican) will choose his replacement which means The GOP could Filibuster. Bahy will not be the choice
3.Gov. Tim Kane (D-VA)
At first when making my list, of 10 and then 7, I took off Tim Kane because I thought he was not well known enough. Obama think different. Kane is extremely charismatic and Powerful. Kane would be an excellent counter to the now likely McCain Pick of Eric Cantor. Kane could help bring Virginia and maybe North Carolina.
2. Gov. Kathleen Sabillius (D-KS)
Sabillius is a good choice. She could help with some Clinton supporters who wanted to see a woman in office. She makes it harder for McCain to use the Experience argument against Obama. She is fully able to be Vice President. She Can help in the Midwest, in states like MT, ND, SD, CO, IA, MO NM and NV. However, she is a risky choice. Racism and Sexism could prove difficult to overcome. The McCain Campaign could still bash them on foreign policy.
1. Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE)
I feel Biden is the by far the best choice Obama has. He is the one of the most qualified people in politics to be Vice President. He brings foreign policy experience. He has been a major critic of Bush and his Cronies. He will make almost every one more likely to vote for Obama. He is Respected by almost every one, he has a high approval rating. some people say he doesn't help with the map but I dis agree. I see him helping in states Like MN,MI,WI,PA,OH,VA and CO. I think Biden will help make all Democrats and Liberal Independents feel better and make them More Likely to Vote. I feel Biden should, and is likely to be the VP.
4. Sen. Evan Bahy (D-IN)
Now the only thing I know about the selection at this point is that it will not be Evan Bahy for two Reasons. 1) He's boring 2) If Obama wins and the Democrats get to 60 the governor of Indiana (Likely to remain Republican) will choose his replacement which means The GOP could Filibuster. Bahy will not be the choice
3.Gov. Tim Kane (D-VA)
At first when making my list, of 10 and then 7, I took off Tim Kane because I thought he was not well known enough. Obama think different. Kane is extremely charismatic and Powerful. Kane would be an excellent counter to the now likely McCain Pick of Eric Cantor. Kane could help bring Virginia and maybe North Carolina.
2. Gov. Kathleen Sabillius (D-KS)
Sabillius is a good choice. She could help with some Clinton supporters who wanted to see a woman in office. She makes it harder for McCain to use the Experience argument against Obama. She is fully able to be Vice President. She Can help in the Midwest, in states like MT, ND, SD, CO, IA, MO NM and NV. However, she is a risky choice. Racism and Sexism could prove difficult to overcome. The McCain Campaign could still bash them on foreign policy.
1. Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE)
I feel Biden is the by far the best choice Obama has. He is the one of the most qualified people in politics to be Vice President. He brings foreign policy experience. He has been a major critic of Bush and his Cronies. He will make almost every one more likely to vote for Obama. He is Respected by almost every one, he has a high approval rating. some people say he doesn't help with the map but I dis agree. I see him helping in states Like MN,MI,WI,PA,OH,VA and CO. I think Biden will help make all Democrats and Liberal Independents feel better and make them More Likely to Vote. I feel Biden should, and is likely to be the VP.
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