Changes in My Prediction

I am changing in my Prediction of Alaska and Georgia from Obama to McCain. This Makes the New electoral count Obama 375 McCain 163.

And in the Senate I am changing my Prediction of Kentucky from Landsford (D) to McConel (R). this makes the senate: Democrats 58 Republicans 42.

New Senate Poll check and Ratings

Here are the Polls in Senate Races to Watch:
LA- Landriue (D) by 9.5
NJ- Launtenberg (D) By 17
AK- Belsige (D) by 1.5
CO- Udall (D) by 9
KS- Roberts (R) by 9
KY- Landsford (D) by 0.5
ME- Collins (R) by 7
MN- Coleman (R) by 7.5
MS- Musgroove (D) by 1
NE- Johanas (R) by 27
NH- Shaheen (D) by 14
NM- Udall (D) by 28
NC- Dole (R) by 4
OR- Smith (R) by 6
TX- Cornyn by 8.5
VA- Warner (D) by 27
Here are my new Ratings:
Safe Dem (51 Dem, 4 GOP 55 Total) :
NJ
LA
VA
NM
NH
CO
Lean Dem (2 GOP 57 Total)
MS
AK
Tossup (Tilt Dem ) (2 GOP 59 Total)
KY
NC
Tossup (Tilt GOP) (2 GOP 41 Total)
OR
MN
Lean GOP (3 GOP 39 Total)
KS
ME
TX
Safe GOP (36 GOP)
NE

Being Taken Off Watch: Nebraska and New Jersey
Races To Watch: Minnesota and North Carolina

Minnesota has been very fluid so far and in all estimation will continue to be so. right now Norm Coleman holds one of his largest leads in this race but Al Frankin will come back. This one will likely be leader switching till election day. and remember that polls are likely to be inaccurate because of the way Obama has changed the electorate. Obama's "New Voters" Will vote in the senate too.

North Carolina has been interesting. while many people are now saying the Dole will be re-elected, they have not checked where the numbers come from. in a poll that leans to the right she is only up 2 points. the Russmussen (which has her up by 14) is a huge out lier.Obama's new electorate could have a Huge impact. For example, African Americans make up 22% of the over all Population of the state and in 2000 and 2004 they went 90.5% for the democrat. Obama could raise this percentage as well as the demographic's participation in the electoral Process. you could see a 3-9 point gap between the polls and the results because of Obama. Watch this Race.

Here is my Prediction map

and my Ratings Map

New Presidential Ratings and Poll Check

Drastic Changes have been Made to my Electoral Map Favoring Obama. here are some Recent polls:
PA: Obama By 12
FL: Obama by 4.5
NH: Obama by 11
OH: Obama by 8.7
WI: Obama by 11
VA: Obama by 1.5
CO: Obama by 4
MI: Obama by 3
MO:Obama by 1.5
NM: Obama by 9
MN: Obama by 7
NV: McCain by 2.5
GA: McCain by 1
IA: Obama by 7
IN: Obama by 1
LA: McCain by 9
MS: McCain by 6
MT: McCain by 5
NC: McCain by 2
OR: Obama by 8
TX: McCain by 13
AK: McCain by 4

Here are my new Ratings:
Safe Obama (225):
CA
WA
OR
MN
IL
ME
NH
VT
HI
DC
DE
MD
PA
NJ
NY
CT
MA
RI

Lean Obama (276)
WI
IA
CO
NM
OH

Tossup (Tilt Obama) (393)
MI
MO
NV
IN
VA
NC
FL
GA
AK

Tossup (Tilt McCain) (145)
MS
SC
ND
MT

Lean McCain (125)
TX
AR
LA
WV
SD

Safe McCain (68)
ID
UT
WY
AZ
NE
KS
OK
AL
KY
TN

Races To Watch: Florida, Georgia, Michigan, South Carolina and Indiana

In Florida Obama has Taken a slight lead over McCain while no one was watching. McCain's Off Shore drilling stance could cost him some votes Down there. Florida has been a key to GOP victory the last two elections and if the democrats win it, without substitution Obama will win, Period. The Primary Ordeal hurt the democrats and it is one of the few states where McCain has out raised Obama. If Florida goes to Obama McCain has no Hope.

Indiana remains Deadlocked. Obama holds his one point lead. this state is typically reliably republican but this year is an exception. in 2006 3 house seats changed control and an Obama win can put it in the tossup category for a long time to come. here is a real Democratic Opportunity.

South Carolina is the one state left in the 5 state belt (that is VA, NC, SC, GA and FL) of democratic Optimism that is still going to McCain. if the GOP looses 2-3 States in that belt they will loose the election.

Georgia has become a Subject of the Barr Effect. Bob Barr is Drawing 8% of the vote and has shrunken the McCain lead to 1. Because of the way Obama has changed the electorate it is in his hands right now. It could quickly fall out of them but if it doesn't The Democrats are in for a wild ride.

Michigan is the lone Kerry Tossup. It has suffered because of the primary incident but it remains, as of now, an Obama State. He has been Making an effort to get it to lean toward him, Both Edwards and Gore endorsed him there and it looks as though the fruits of his labor may soon pay off. If Both Michigan and Wisconsin go to Obama the GOP will have a very hard time finding a place to win from.


Here is my map without tossups



Here is My Map With Tossups

The Barr Effect Revised

I made Estimates a while ago on what Bob Barr would need to get to help Obama in the south. these numbers are in flux so here they are as of today. In parentheses is the percentage he is getting right now. (*-Obama is in the Lead):
AL- 23% (6%)
AR-17% (8%)
FL*-1% (N/A)
GA- 7% (6%)
IN*-1% (N/A)
KY-12% (N/A)
LA- 9% (3%)
MS- 9% (3%)
MO*-1% (N/A)
NC1- 6% (4%)
OK- Denied Ballot Access
SC- 6% (N/A)
TN- 16% (N/A)
TX- 13% (N/A)
VA*- 1% (N/A)
WV- 21% (13%
1-in my Estimation Obama is Taking North Carolina, But no polls indicate that yet.
Watch these Numbers.

New Governors poll check and Ratings

Here are the Polls in states to Watch:
IN Daniels (R) leads by 7
NC Perdue (D) Leads by 3
MO Nixon (D) Leads by 9
WA Gregoire (D) Leads By 5


I have New Ratings:
Safe Dem (4D 26 Total)
MT
WV
DE
NH
Lean Dem (2D,1R 29 Total)
WA
NC
MO
Tossup (0D,0R)
(None)
Lean GOP (1R 21 Total)
IN
Safe GOP (3R, 20 Total)
VT
ND
UT

Races To Watch: Indiana and North Carolina
North Carolina is the Race to watch. The Democrat has lost 4 Points since our last check and is Now just Hanging on by a thread. Right now I rate it as Leaning Dem. but that could change very, very quickly. an Edwards VP slot would help turn out Democrats and give Perdue an advantage, But if McCain Picks Jim Demint (Cringe) or Lindsey Graham from Neighboring South Carolina this race could easily begin to lean to the GOP.

The Momentum in Indiana has started to go to the right. Just a short time ago Thompson (D) was leading by 3 but today she Trails the Incumbent by 7 points. Indiana is Proving to be extremely Fluid. Expect this one to go down to the wire in November.

Three Huge Prediction changes

After analyzing some data I have Made three BIG changes in my prediction. I am changing Florida and North Carolina, a total of 42 electoral votes from McCain to Obama Making my prediction Officially an Obama Landslide at Obama 275 McCain 163. the Popular Vote Prediction I am changing as well to Obama 53% McCain 45% Barr 2%.

Prediction change: Michigan and Nevada From McCain to Obama

I now think that Obama will win Michigan and Nevada. This will bring 22 Electoral Votes to his column Making the count Obama 333 McCain 205

Avrige results of the last 5 elections

This is the AVERAGE electoral map of the last 5 elections courtesy of CQ politics . I believe this is unreliable for a few reasons. 1) Dukakus should have done better than he did. 2) Bill Clinton won in states where Obama will likely loose, even in the most generous of predictions (Kentucky and Tennessee). 3) Obama has changed the electorate so much so that a HUGE amount red states are in play. In this Map the electoral count is:Democrat 286 Republicans 252. The darker the color the more Liberal/ Conservative

Bush State by state Approval

Bushes Approval Rating is about 24%. According to survey USA he only has a positive Approval in two states: Utah and Wyoming, and an even Approval in 1: Idaho. The electoral count is: Anti-Bush 526 Pro-Bush 8 Tie 4

The Money Race: Democrats Vrs. Republicans

Today I posted the money race for Obama Vrs. McCain. now I am posting this map. this is a map of generic Democrats Vrs. generic Republicans. if the leading fund raiser is a democrat the state is blue. if it's a republican it's red. The electoral count is: Democrats 463 Republicans 75.
This is a third Potential Indicator of an Obama Land slide.

The Money Race: Obama Vrs. McCain

Yesterday I wrote about the Primary races and How they can be an early indicator of an Obama landslide. Today I looked up the Money race. McCain only Beats Obama in 6 states: Arizona, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Florida and Michigan. Over all Obama has $234,745,000 to McCain's $76,269,000. If the Race goes the way the money does, Which happened in most states in 2004, the Electoral Count would be: Obama 461 McCain 77. Here is my Map.
This could be the second early indicator to an Obama landslide.

Primaries: Obama Vrs. McCain

I am posting a map of total Votes in each state for each candidate. in this first map I am showing Obama Vrs. McCain Raw votes . The Electoral count is: Obama 456 McCain 82 The second map shows the same Primary results but throws out states that were skewed for one reason or another. The electoral count is: Obama 372 McCain 38 with 128 skewed

the primaries could be an early indicator of an Obama landslide.

a change on my blog

I am Taking away the Delegate count witch now reads:
Republicans
X-McCain 1289 +1022
Romney 267
Huckabee 255
Paul 21
Democrats
X-Obama 2158
Clinton 1926
X- projected nominee
Bold- Presumptive Nominee

and replacing it with an election guide, which will link data and have all kinds of numbers regarding the election.

Cook PVI's of every Congressional district

Charlie Cook has done the research to tell how Liberal or Conservative every congressional district. This is called a PVI or Partisan Voting Index. the numbers mean that is that much more Democratic or Republican than the national average. So D+5 would mean it votes for the Democrat an Average of 5% more than the national average. so here are all 435 Courtesy of Wikipedia:

List of PVIs by congressional district^[1]

[edit] Alabama

1st--R+12
2nd--R+13
3rd--R+4
4th--R+16
5th--R+6
6th--R+25
7th--D+17

[edit] Alaska

At Large--R+14

[edit] Arizona

1st--R+2
2nd--R+9
3rd--R+6
4th--D+14
5th--R+4
6th--R+12
7th--D+10
8th--R+1

[edit] Arkansas

1st--D+1
2nd--R+0
3rd--R+11
4th--D+0

[edit] California

1st--In 2000 Gore received 56% of the vote, 8% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 60% of the vote^[2], 12% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-01 a Cook PVI of D +10.

2nd--In 2000 Bush received 63% of the vote, 15% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 62% of the vote, 11% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-02 a Cook PVI of R +13.

3rd--In 2000 Bush received 55% of the vote, 7% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 58% of the vote, 7% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-03 a Cook PVI of R +7.

4th--In 2000 Bush received 60% of the vote, 12% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 61% of the vote, 10% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-04 a Cook PVI of R +11.

5th--In 2000 Gore received 63% of the vote, 15% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 61% of the vote, 13% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-05 a Cook PVI of D +14.

6th--In 2000 Gore received 68% of the vote, 20% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 70% of the vote, 22% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-06 a Cook PVI of D +21.

7th--In 2000 Gore received 67% of the vote, 19% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 67% of the vote, 19% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-07 a Cook PVI of D +19.

8th--In 2000 Gore received 84% of the vote, 36% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 84% of the vote, 36% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-08 a Cook PVI of D +36.

9th--In 2000 Gore received 86% of the vote, 38% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 86% of the vote, 38% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-09 a Cook PVI of D +38.

10th--In 2000 Gore received 55% of the vote, 7% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 59% of the vote, 11% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-10 a Cook PVI of D +9.

11th--In 2000 Bush received 51% of the vote, 3% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 54% of the vote, 3% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-11 a Cook PVI of R +3.

12th--In 2000 Gore received 68% of the vote, 20% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 72% of the vote, 24% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-12 a Cook PVI of D +22.

13th--In 2000 Gore received 69% of the vote, 21% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 71% of the vote, 23% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-13 a Cook PVI of D +22.

14th--In 2000 Gore received 64% of the vote, 16% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 68% of the vote, 20% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-14 a Cook PVI of D +18.

15th--In 2000 Gore received 61% of the vote, 13% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 63% of the vote, 15% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-15 a Cook PVI of D +14.

16th--In 2000 Gore received 65% of the vote, 17% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 63% of the vote, 15% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-16 a Cook PVI of D +16.

17th--In 2000 Gore received 64% of the vote, 16% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 66% of the vote, 18% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-17 a Cook PVI of D +17.

18th--In 2000 Gore received 53% of the vote, 5% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 50% of the vote, 1% lower than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Bush's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-18 a Cook PVI of D +3.

19th--In 2000 Bush received 58% of the vote, 10% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 61% of the vote, 10% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-19 a Cook PVI of R +10.

20th--In 2000 Gore received 55% of the vote, 7% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 51% of the vote, 3% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-20 a Cook PVI of D +5.

21st--In 2000 Bush received 60% of the vote, 12% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 65% of the vote, 14% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-21 a Cook PVI of R +13.

22nd--In 2000 Bush received 63% of the vote, 15% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 68% of the vote, 17% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-22 a Cook PVI of R +16.

23rd--In 2000 Gore received 56% of the vote, 8% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 58% of the vote, 10% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-23 a Cook PVI of D +9.

24th--In 2000 Bush received 53% of the vote, 5% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 56% of the vote, 5% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-24 a Cook PVI of R +5.

25th--In 2000 Bush received 54% of the vote, 6% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 59% of the vote, 8% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-25 a Cook PVI of R +7.

26th--In 2000 Bush received 52% of the vote, 4% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 55% of the vote, 4% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-26 a Cook PVI of R +4.

27th--In 2000 Gore received 63% of the vote, 15% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 59% of the vote, 11% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-27 a Cook PVI of D +13.

28th--In 2000 Gore received 75% of the vote, 27% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 71% of the vote, 23% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-28 a Cook PVI of D +25.

29th--In 2000 Gore received 59% of the vote, 11% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 61% of the vote, 13% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-29 a Cook PVI of D +12.

30th--In 2000 Gore received 70% of the vote, 22% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 66% of the vote, 18% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-30 a Cook PVI of D +20.

31st--In 2000 Gore received 79% of the vote, 31% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 77% of the vote, 29% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-31 a Cook PVI of D +30.

32nd--In 2000 Gore received 68% of the vote, 20% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 62% of the vote, 14% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-32 a Cook PVI of D +17.

33rd--In 2000 Gore received 85% of the vote, 37% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 83% of the vote, 35% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-33 a Cook PVI of D +36.

34th--In 2000 Gore received 73% of the vote, 25% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 69% of the vote, 21% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-34 a Cook PVI of D +23.

35th--In 2000 Gore received 83% of the vote, 35% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 79% of the vote, 31% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-35 a Cook PVI of D +33.

36th--In 2000 Gore received 59% of the vote, 11% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 59% of the vote, 11% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-36 a Cook PVI of D +11.

37th--In 2000 Gore received 76% of the vote, 28% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 74% of the vote, 26% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-37 a Cook PVI of D +27.

38th--In 2000 Gore received 71% of the vote, 23% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 65% of the vote, 17% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-38 a Cook PVI of D +20.

39th--In 2000 Gore received 63% of the vote, 15% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 59% of the vote, 11% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-39 a Cook PVI of D +13.

40th--In 2000 Bush received 55% of the vote, 7% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 60% of the vote, 9% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-40 a Cook PVI of R +8.

41st--In 2000 Bush received 55% of the vote, 7% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 62% of the vote, 11% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-41 a Cook PVI of R +9.

42nd--In 2000 Bush received 57% of the vote, 9% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 62% of the vote, 11% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-42 a Cook PVI of R +10.

43rd--In 2000 Gore received 64% of the vote, 16% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 58% of the vote, 10% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-43 a Cook PVI of D +13.

44th--In 2000 Bush received 52% of the vote, 4% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 59% of the vote, 8% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-44 a Cook PVI of R +6.

45th--In 2000 Bush received 49% of the vote, 1% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 56% of the vote, 5% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-45 a Cook PVI of R +3.

46th--In 2000 Bush received 54% of the vote, 6% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 57% of the vote, 6% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-46 a Cook PVI of R +6.

47th--In 2000 Gore received 57% of the vote, 9% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 50% of the vote, 1% lower than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Bush's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-47 a Cook PVI of D +5.

48th--In 2000 Bush received 57% of the vote, 9% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 58% of the vote, 7% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-48 a Cook PVI of R +8.

49th--In 2000 Bush received 56% of the vote, 8% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 63% of the vote, 12% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-49 a Cook PVI of R +10.

50th--In 2000 Bush received 54% of the vote, 6% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 55% of the vote, 4% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-50 a Cook PVI of R +5.

51st--In 2000 Gore received 57% of the vote, 9% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 53% of the vote, 5% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-51 a Cook PVI of D +7.

52nd--In 2000 Bush received 56% of the vote, 8% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Bush received 61% of the vote, 10% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Bush's 2000 and 2004 percentages in the district and his percentages in the country overall give CA-52 a Cook PVI of R +9.

53rd--In 2000 Gore received 59% of the vote, 11% higher than what he received nationwide. In 2004 Kerry received 61% of the vote, 13% higher than what he received nationwide. The average of the differences between Gore's and Kerry's percentages in the district and their percentages in the country overall give CA-53 a Cook PVI of D +12.

[edit] Colorado

1st--D+18
2nd--D+8
3rd--R+6
4th--R+9
5th--R+16
6th--R+10
7th--D+2

[edit] Connecticut

1st--D+14
2nd--D+8
3rd--D+12
4th--D+5
5th--D+4

[edit] Delaware

At Large--D+7

[edit] District of Columbia

At Large--D+39

[edit] Florida

1st--R+19
2nd--R+2
3rd--D+16
4th--R+16
5th--R+5
6th--R+8
7th--R+3
8th--R+3
9th--R+4
10th--D+1
11th--D+11
12th--R+5
13th--R+4
14th--R+10
15th--R+4
16th--R+2
17th--D+35
18th--R+4
19th--D+21
20th--D+18
21st--R+6
22nd--D+4
23rd--D+29
24th--R+3
25th--R+4

[edit] Georgia

1st--R+14
2nd--D+2
3rd--R+19
4th--D+22
5th--D+25
6th--R+19
7th--R+19
8th--R+8
9th--R+24
10th--R+14
11th--R+18
12th--D+2
13th--D+10

[edit] Hawaii

1st--D+7
2nd--D+10

[edit] Idaho

1st--R+19
2nd--R+19

[edit] Illinois

1st--D+35
2nd--D+35
3rd--D+10
4th--D+31
5th--D+18
6th--R+3
7th--D+35
8th--R+5
9th--D+20
10th--D+4
11th--R+1
12th--D+5
13th--R+5
14th--R+5
15th--R+6
16th--R+4
17th--D+5
18th--R+5
19th--R+8

[edit] Indiana

1st--D+8
2nd--R+4
3rd--R+16
4th--R+17
5th--R+20
6th--R+11
7th--D+9
8th--R+9
9th--R+7

[edit] Iowa

1st--D+5
2nd--D+7
3rd--D+1
4th--D+0
5th--R+8

[edit] Kansas

1st--R+20
2nd--R+7
3rd--R+4
4th--R+12

[edit] Kentucky

1st--R+10
2nd--R+13
3rd--D+2
4th--R+12
5th--R+8
6th--R+7

[edit] Louisiana

1st--R+18
2nd--D+28
3rd--R+5
4th--R+7
5th--R+10
6th--R+7
7th--R+7

[edit] Maine

1st--D+6
2nd--D+4

[edit] Maryland

1st--R+10
2nd--D+8
3rd--D+7
4th--D+30
5th--D+9
6th--R+13
7th--D+25
8th--D+20

[edit] Massachusetts

1st--D+15
2nd--D+11
3rd--D+11
4th--D+17
5th--D+9
6th--D+10
7th--D+18
8th--D+31
9th--D+15
10th--D+8

[edit] Michigan

1st--R+2
2nd--R+9
3rd--R+9
4th--R+3
5th--D+12
6th--R+2
7th--R+2
8th--R+2
9th--R+0
10th--R+4
11th--R+1
12th--D+13
13th--D+32
14th--D+33
15th--D+13

[edit] Minnesota

1st--R+1
2nd--R+3
3rd--R+1
4th--D+13
5th--D+21
6th--R+5
7th--R+6
8th--D+4

[edit] Mississippi

1st--R+10
2nd--D+10
3rd--R+13
4th--R+16

[edit] Missouri

1st--D+26
2nd--R+9
3rd--D+8
4th--R+11
5th--D+12
6th--R+5
7th--R+14
8th--R+11
9th--R+7

[edit] Montana

At Large--R+11

[edit] Nebraska

1st--R+11
2nd--R+9
3rd--R+24

[edit] Nevada

1st--D+9
2nd--R+8
3rd--D+1

[edit] New Hampshire

1st--R+0
2nd--D+3

[edit] New Jersey

1st--D+14
2nd--D+4
3rd--D+3
4th--R+1
5th--R+4
6th--D+12
7th--R+1
8th--D+12
9th--D+13
10th--D+34
11th--R+6
12th--D+8
13th--D+23

[edit] New Mexico

1st--D+2
2nd--R+6
3rd--D+6

[edit] New York

Some New York districts directly affected by 9-11 were more likely to vote for Bush in 2004 than in 2000. Most of the City districts in Staten Island, the outer boroughs, and Long Island, specifically NY-03 and NY-13, showed marked increases for the incumbent President in the 2004 election; the 2008 election should show whether it was a temporary or permanent shift to the Republicans. Similar results were shown in parts of New Jersey and Connecticut.

1st--D+3
2nd--D+7
3rd--D+2
4th--D+9
5th--D+18
6th--D+38
7th--D+28
8th--D+28
9th--D+14
10th--D+41
11th--D+40
12th--D+34
13th--D+1
14th--D+26
15th--D+43
16th--D+43
17th--D+21
18th--D+10
19th--R+1
20th--R+3
21st--D+9
22nd--D+6
23rd--R+0
24th--R+1
25th--D+3
26th--R+3
27th--D+7
28th--D+15
29th--R+5

[edit] North Carolina

1st--D+9
2nd--R+3
3rd--R+15
4th--D+6
5th--R+15
6th--R+17
7th--R+3
8th--R+3
9th--R+12
10th--R+15
11th--R+7
12th--D+11
13th--D+2

[edit] North Dakota

At Large--R+13

[edit] Ohio

1st--R+1
2nd--R+13
3rd--R+3
4th--R+14
5th--R+10
6th--D+0
7th--R+6
8th--R+12
9th--D+9
10th--D+6
11th--D+33
12th--R+1
13th--D+6
14th--R+2
15th--R+1
16th--R+4
17th--D+14
18th--R+6

[edit] Oklahoma

1st--R+13
2nd--R+5
3rd--R+18
4th--R+13
5th--R+12

[edit] Oregon

1st--D+6
2nd--R+11
3rd--D+18
4th--D+0
5th--D+1

[edit] Pennsylvania

1st--D+36
2nd--D+39
3rd--R+2
4th--R+3
5th--R+10
6th--D+2
7th--D+4
8th--D+3
9th--R+15
10th--R+8
11th--D+5
12th--D+5
13th--D+8
14th--D+22
15th--D+2
16th--R+11
17th--R+7
18th--R+2
19th--R+12

[edit] Rhode Island

1st--D+16
2nd--D+13

[edit] South Carolina

1st--R+10
2nd--R+9
3rd--R+14
4th--R+15
5th--R+6
6th--D+11

[edit] South Dakota

At Large--R+10

[edit] Tennessee

1st--R+14
2nd--R+11
3rd--R+8
4th--R+3
5th--D+6
6th--R+4
7th--R+12
8th--D+0
9th--D+18

[edit] Texas

1st--R+17
2nd--R+12
3rd--R+17
4th--R+17
5th--R+16
6th--R+15
7th--R+16
8th--R+20
9th--D+21
10th--R+13
11th--R+25
12th--R+14
13th--R+18
14th--R+14
15th--D+3
16th--D+9
17th--R+18
18th--D+23
19th--R+25
20th--D+8
21st--R+13
22nd--R+15
23rd--R+4
24th--R+15
25th--D+1
26th--R+12
27th--R+1
28th--R+1
29th--D+8
30th--D+26
31st--R+15
32nd--R+11

[edit] Utah

1st--R+26
2nd--R+17
3rd--R+22

[edit] Vermont

At Large--D+8

[edit] Virginia

1st--R+9
2nd--R+6
3rd--D+18
4th--R+5
5th--R+6
6th--R+11
7th--R+11
8th--D+14
9th--R+7
10th--R+5
11th--R+1

[edit] Washington

1st--D+7
2nd--D+3
3rd--D+0
4th--R+13
5th--R+7
6th--D+6
7th--D+30
8th--D+2
9th--D+6

[edit] West Virginia

1st--R+6
2nd--R+5
3rd--D+0

[edit] Wisconsin

1st--R+2
2nd--D+13
3rd--D+3
4th--D+20
5th--R+12
6th--R+5
7th--D+2
8th--D+0

[edit] Wyoming

At Large--R+19