Wednesday, June 25, 2008

New Senate Poll check and Ratings

Here are the Polls in Senate Races to Watch:
LA- Landriue (D) by 9.5
NJ- Launtenberg (D) By 17

AK- Belsige (D) by 1.5
CO- Udall (D) by 9

KS- Roberts (R) by 9
KY- Landsford (D) by 0.5
ME- Collins (R) by 7
MN- Coleman (R) by 7.5
MS- Musgroove (D) by 1
NE- Johanas (R) by 27
NH- Shaheen (D) by 14
NM- Udall (D) by 28
NC- Dole (R) by 4
OR- Smith (R) by 6
TX- Cornyn by 8.5

VA- Warner (D) by 27
Here are my new Ratings:
Safe Dem (51 Dem, 4 GOP 55 Total) :
Lean Dem (2 GOP 57 Total)


Tossup (Tilt Dem ) (2 GOP 59 Total)
Tossup (Tilt GOP) (2 GOP 41 Total)
Lean GOP (3 GOP 39 Total)

Safe GOP (36 GOP)

Being Taken Off Watch: Nebraska and New Jersey
Races To Watch: Minnesota and North Carolina

Minnesota has been very fluid so far and in all estimation will continue to be so. right now Norm Coleman holds one of his largest leads in this race but Al Frankin will come back. This
one will likely be leader switching till election day. and remember that polls are likely to be inaccurate because of the way Obama has changed the electorate. Obama's "New Voters" Will vote in the senate too.

North Carolina has been interesting. while many people are now saying the Dole will be
re-elected, they have not checked where the numbers come from. in a poll that leans to the right she is only up 2 points. the Russmussen (which has her up by 14) is a huge out lier.Obama's new electorate could have a Huge impact. For example, African Americans make up 22% of the over all Population of the state and in 2000 and 2004 they went 90.5% for the democrat. Obama could raise this percentage as well as the demographic's participation in the electoral Process. you could see a 3-9 point gap between the polls and the results because of Obama. Watch this Race.

Here is my Prediction map

and my Ratings Map

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