Saturday, April 26, 2008

Pennsylvania, Presidential Ratings and The state of the Democraric nomination

Clinton Won Pennsylvania as expected but by 9 points a larger margin than we predicted. The results were:
Clinton 54%
Obama 45%
Obama did have a victory in the sense that Hillary is now broke going into May 6th. If Obama wins North Car.(as expected) and Indiana she will probably drop out. My Numbers in the next two are:
N.C.
Obama 51.7%
Clinton 34%
I.N.
Obama 44.75%
Clinton 41.25%

Presidential Ratings:Light Red or Blue = Lean, Dark Red or Blue = Safe, Green = Tossup
I have gone to the two category systam (Lean and Safe). Indiana has now become a tossup, which I was expecting to happen much later. Here are My Ratings(*- Change Vrs. 2004):
Safe (Obama 183 McCain 107)
HI-4
WA-11
CA-55
IL-21
MD-10
DC-3
DE-3
NJ-15
CT-7
RI-4
MA-12
VT-3
ME-4
NY-31



WV-5
KY-8
TN-11
GA-15
AL-9
MS-6
LA-9
AR-6
OK-7
KS-6
AZ-10
WY-3
UT-5
ID-4
Lean (Obama 264 McCain 190)
PA-21
MI-17
WI-10
MN-10
IA-7* CO-7*
OR-7

FL-27
SC-8
SD-3
TX-34
ND-3
NE-5
MT-3
AK-3
Tossup (84 (2004:Bush 80 Kerry 4))
NH-4
OH-20
IN-11
VA-13
NC-15
NM-5
NV-5


The State Of The Democratic Nomination:
Hillary Clinton has no shot of winning states, the Popular vote or the Pledged delegate count. The super delegates will not over turn the will of the people, so unless Obama screws up bad, He will be the nominee.

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