House Final Call

I am Making my final call in the House. I am putting out a list of districts that I expect to switch (AKA Pick Up's for those of you who don't know political Vocab). I expect the New House to have 264 Democrats and 171 Republicans

Democratic Pick Ups
AK-AL
AZ-1
FL-8
FL-21
FL-24
IL-10
IL-11
MI-7
MI-9
NJ-3
NJ-7
NM-1
NM-2
NY-13
NY-25
NY-29
NC-8
OH-1
OH-15
OH-16
VA-11
NV-3
CO-4
ID-1
CA-4
CA-46
MN-3
MN-6
PA-3
CT-4
WA-8

Republican Pickups
PA-11
TX-22
FL-16

Final Calls- 1 1/2 Senate 2 President

In the Senate: I am calling North Carolina for the Democrat Kay Hagan. this gives the Democrats a 58-39 Advantage. I am also Calling Georgia in a sense. If no candidate reaches 50% there will b a run off on December 2ed. No Candidate will reach 50%

I am Calling North Carolina and Florida for Obama. This put's the Count at Obama 353- McCain 132

The Following Races have yet to be Called:
Governors: NC
Senate: MN, KY, GA*
President: AZ, ND, MT, IN, MO, GA

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

Strong Obama (311)
PA*: Obama by 11
NH*: Obama by 12
WI*: Obama by 13
MN*: Obama by 16
IA*: Obama by 15
NM*: Obama by 15
VA*: Obama by 8
OH*: Obama by 7
CO*: Obama by 8
NV*: Obama by 7

Lean Obama (353)
NC*: Obama by 4
FL*: Obama by 4

Tilt Obama (375)
IN: Obama by 0.3
MO: Obama by 0.6

Tilt McCain (163)
ND: McCain by 0.2
MT: McCain by 2.5
GA: McCain by 1.5
AZ: McCain by 1.0

Lean McCain (132)
None

Strong McCain (132)
MS*: McCain by 10
SD*: McCain by 8
SC*: McCain by 9
WV*: McCain by 9

Senate Poll check And Ratings

Strong Democrat (57)
LA*: Landriue by 16
NJ*: Launtenburg by 15
VA*: Warner by 28
NM*: Udall by 18
AK*: Begich by 16
CO*: Udall by 13
NH*: Shaheen by 11
NC*: Hagan by 9

Lean Dem (58)
OR*: Merkly by 7

Tilt Dem (59)
MN: Frankin by 2.3

Special rating: Likely Runoff (1)
GA#: Chambliss by 1.3 or 47-46-6

Tilt GOP (40)
KY: McConel by 2.7

Lean GOP (39)
None

Strong GOP (39)
TX*: Cornyn by 11
MS*: Wicker by 11
ME*: Collins by 13

*- Already called
#- Georgia is called such that no candidate will reach 50% and it will thus go to a runoff on December 2ed

New Governors poll check and Ratings

Missouri*- this one has been over for a while. Nixon (D) leads by 17 points. Strong Dem

Indiana*- though people thought this might be competitive for a while it isn't Daniels leads by 16 Strong GOP

Washington*- Though this one tightened after the GOP Convention it looks like the Democrats are going to hold on. Georgie (D) leads by 5.6 Lean Democrat

North Carolina- Purdue Leads by 2.3. I'm not ready to call this one yet but it leans in th democrats Direction. Lean Democrat

*- Already Called

Called: D 28 GOP 21
Strong: D 27 GOP 21
Lean: D 29 GOP 21
Tilt: D 29 GOP 21

Final Calls

In the Presidential Race I have 2 calls; one favoring each candidate. I am calling Nevada For Obama and West Virginia for McCain this brings the electoral count to Obama 338 McCain 142

In the senate I have 3 calls. I am Calling Oregon for Merkly (D), Alaska for Begich (D) and Mississippi for Wicker (R) this brings the senate to 57 Democrats and 39 Republicans.

I am calling Washington's Governors Race for Chrisine Georgie but will keep you updated on it. that makes the count Democrats 28 Republicans 21.

I am changing my popular vote prediction to Obama 53% McCain 46% Barr 1%

Presidential Poll check and race Ratings

Strong Obama (306)
PA*: Obama by 11
WI*: Obama by 12
MN*: Obama by 16
NH*: Obama by 19
IA*: Obama by 12
NM*: Obama by 11
VA*: Obama by 9
CO*: Obama by 9
OH*: Obama by 8

Lean Obama (338)
NV*: Obama by 7
FL: Obama by 4

Tilt Obama (378)
IN: Obama by 3.0
NC: Obama by 2.4
ND: Obama by 1.7
MO: Obama by 0.7

Tilt McCain (160)
MT: McCain by 0.3
GA: McCain by 1.7

Lean McCain (142)
AZ: McCain by 4

Strong McCain (132)
WV*: McCain by 8
MS*: McCain by 10
SD*: McCain by 8
AR*: McCain by 11