Two New Final Calls and a Retraction

Governors:
I am calling Delaware in favor of the Democrat at a 68-32 Margin because the first poll of this open race was released.
That makes it : Dem's 27 GOP 21

Senate: I am now calling Maine in Favor of Republican susan Collins because of a poll which has her 16 points ahead. the Margin is Collins 58- Allen 42.

I am retracting my previous call for Mitch McConell because of new polling info which shows the race within 2-3 points
they cancel eachother out.

New Presidential Ratings, final calls and poll check

Strong Obama (229)
MI: Obama by 7
WI: Obama by 7
OR: Obama by 11
IA: Obama by 9
NM: Obama by 8

Lean Obama (182)
MN: Obama by 5
CO: Obama by 7
PA: Obama by 6
VA: Obama by 5

tossup/ tilt Obama (326)
NH: Obama by 1
OH: Obama by 0.6
NV: Obama by 0.8
NC: Obama by 0.3

Tossup/ Tilt McCain (212)
FL: McCain by 0.4
IN: McCain by 0.7
MO: McCain By 2

Lean McCain (163)
WV: McCain by 6

Strong McCain (158)
MT: McCain by 11
ND: McCain by 13

New Final Calls for the presidential Race
For Obama we are now calling Hawaii, Oregon and Newjersey for Obama giving him a total of 179 safe electoral votes

For McCain I am Calling South Dekota, South Carolina and Louisiana giving him a total of 152 Safe Votes

New Presidential Ratings and Poll Check

Here are My new Ratings
Safe/Strong
Obama 202
McCain 157

Lean
Obama 273
McCain 198



And Here it is without tossups:
Obama 306
McCain 232

I Told you I would do these weekly but some big polls have come out today here are my poll checks and Ratings:
Strong Obama (202)
IA: Obama +10
NM: Obama +7

Lean Obama (273)
MN: Obama +2
WI: Obama +3
OR: Obama+10
PA: Obama +3
NH: Obama +6
CO: Obama +6

Tilt Obama (306)
OH: Obama +1
VA: Obama +1


Tilt McCain (232)
IN: McCain +1
NV: McCain +1
NC: McCain+1
MT: McCain +2

Lean McCain (198)
FL: McCain +3
MO: McCain +5
ND: McCain +6

Strong McCain (157)

All other Bush '04 states


Key things To watch for:
1) McCain is capping off in the rust belt states: expect Obama in the next week to 10 days to expand his leads in WI, PA, MN,MI and OH
2) Obama is closing in on making CO a strong state.
3) McCain could be reclaiming the lead in VA soon, Don't hold me to that, VA will be a tossup no matter what.
4) Ignore polls finished before Tuesday.
5) FL and IN will probably flirt between leaning McCain and Being a tossup till election day.

Senate Poll check And Ratings

In the Senate though I still have 11 Races out only 6 appear to be somewhat competitive.
Here is My Poll Check on those six

CO: Udall (D) +6
AK: Belsige (D) +5
NC: Hagan (D) +1
MN: Coleman (R) +1
OR: Smith (R) +1
MS: Wicker (R) +3

Here are my Ratings of those 11 that are still out and pick ups :

Sade Dem (52):
VA
NM

Strong Dem (54):
NH
LA

Lean Dem (56):
AK
CO

Tossup/ Tilt Dem (57)
NC

Tossup/ Tilt GOP(43):
OR
MN
MS

Lean GOP (40):
None

Strong GOP (37):
GA
TX
ME

Races to watch:
Minnesota: The Convention has Coleman about a one point lead. Will it hold?
North Carolina: this race is extremely fluid, Kay Hagan holds about a one point lead. Liz Dole looked like she had lucked out a few months ago but that turned out not to be the case. The Democrats have united behind Hagan and this race will be close down to the wire.

Presidential Final Calls: Collectively

The Final Calls on the Presidency were getting tedious so I am doing the Rest of what I have right now here:

Obama Will Win DC,DE,MD,CT,RI, MA,VT,NY and ME as I have already called in addition to CA and IL Giving him an Safe Total of 153 Electoral Votes.

McCain Will win UT,WY,ID and Georgia as I have already called inn addition to KS, OK, NE, AL,TN,KY,AR,AK, WV and TX Giving him a total of 121 Safe Electoral Votes.

Senate election-Final Call- New Mexico- Key Race

Polls:
D) Udall 56%
R) Parce 41%

Dominici (R) Approval: 40%

2002 Results Dominici 65-35

X-Factors
1) Had Dominici Ran this would have been interesting, But he didn't

Final Call
Udall 58%
Parce 42%

Senate:
Dem 53
GOP 37

New Presidential Ratings and Poll Check

the convention dust ha settled and obama now has a lead I have new ratings and will polls, I have narrowed this down to a few states:
IA: Obama +12
CO: Obama +3
NM:Obama +7
PA: Obama +4
NH: Obama +5
MN: Obama +3
MI: Obama +3
WI: Obama +4
NC: McCain +1
VA: Obama +2
OH: TIED
NV: McCain +1
IN: McCain +4
FL: McCain +2
MO: McCain+5
MT: McCain +6
ND McCain +6

I will Now start Doing Maps weekly. Now all Blue States unless listed are Implied tward Obama and all Red states tward McCain.

Strong/ Safe Obama (195):
IA
NM
Lean Obama (273):
OR
MN
WI
MI
CO


Tossup Tilt Obama (286):
VA

Pure Tossup (20): OH

Tossup Tilt McCain (232):
NC
NV
FL

Lean McCain (185) :
MO
IN
ND
MT

Safe/ Strong McCain (157):

I am also Updating My Popular Vote Prediction to Obama 50% McCain 47% Barr 3% Nader <>