Breaking News- Alaska GOP Primary

Although I do not Usually make my congressional Primary final calls Public or talk about them in this blog, this one is exceptionally close and Important. by the way I picked Don Young in this one.

Lindsay Politics is ready to Project that Don Young is the Apparent Victor in the 2008 Alaska GOP House Primary. Here are the Results as of now:

100.0% Reporting
X-Don Young 45.47% (42,548) +151 Votes (0.16%)
Steve Parnell 45.31% (42,397)

What does this mean? the democrats are now extremely Likely to defeat Young. He is under indictment and is now exceedingly unpopular. You can all but surely give this one to the democrats in November.

McCain VP Final Call

The McCain VP short list is expected to consist of five names: Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Joe Leiberman and Eric Cantor.

My Final Call as I have layed out in nearly every post on McCain's VP is that he will choose...........

Mitt Romney.

Breaking news-Obama picks his VP

It's Biden

Late Tonight CNN and the LA Times Report Obama has picked Joe Biden to be his Running mate. I called it in a recent post. I feel Biden is the Most qualified and the Best man for the job

New Presidential Ratings

I will start poll checks and races to watch up again next time I rate the race. I am Changing My Popular Vote Prediction to Obama 50% McCain 46% Barr 4% Here are my new Ratings:
Safe Obama (207 EV)
CA
HI
WA
OR
WI
IL
IA
DC
MD
NJ
DE
NY
CT
RI
MA
ME
VT

Lean Obama (260 EV)
MN
MI
PA
NM

Tilt Obama (311 EV)
NH
NV
OH
CO
VA

Tilt McCain (227 EV)
MT
ND
IN
NC
FL
MO

Lean McCain (157)
SD
AK
AR
LA
MS
GA
SC
WV

Safe McCain (102)
AL
AZ
ID
KS
KY
NE
OK
TN
TX
UT
WY




here is my map with tossups

Here it is without

New Presidential Ratings

Obama VP Final Call

Obama is set to announce his VP Friday in an e-mail and formally announce it Saturday. I am Calling it today. Obama's VP short list Consist of: Evan Bahy, Tim Kaine, Kathleen Sabillius and Joe Biden. If my Final Call is Accurate Obama Will Pick...............

Joe Biden


Before Looking at why Biden is qualified lets look at why the others won't be picked.

Sabillius Lacks Foreign Policy experience and is a woman. Sexism and Racism on the same ticket will not be good for the democratic party. She also Lacks Charisma and won't help much (if at all) in the mid west.

Bahy, Where to start. For one he has zero charisma. He is planning a possible 2012 or 2016 run and Obama said "I don't want someone who wants to be president some day. He is considered by many to be a DINO (Democrat In Name Only). He would hurt the democrats chances of getting 60 seats in November (GOP Governor appoints GOP Replacement if he is elected.) Bahy will not be the choice.

Now that leaves us with two: Tim Kane and Joe Biden

Let's Talk Kaine

Con's

1) Mark Warner is giving the Keynote address at the Democratic convention.

2) Kaine has a chance of being President

3) Kaine is Pro-Life

4) No Experience

Pro's

5) Kaine Helps in Virginia and North Carolina.

6) Kaine is Charismatic

7) Kaine Endorsed Obama Early


Now let's look at Biden

Con's
1) Runs his mouth off a bit much

Pro's
2) Relates to Common people

3) would help all through the upper Midwest.

4) Strong Foreign policy credentials

5) engineered The Best Iraq plan there is

6) one of the biggest Bush Critics

7) Great speaker

8) Reagan/Kennedy-esq sense of humor



Biden has a net of +6 to Kaine's -1. Kaine could be the choice but right now all odds favor Biden.

These are the odds I would give to Obama's VP choices
Biden 95%
Kaine 4%
Other 1%

New Senate Poll check and Ratings

Poll Check
LA- Landriue (D) By 6
NJ-Launtenberg (D) by 15
AK-Begich (D) by 17
CO- Udall (D) By 7
KS-Roberts (R) by 28
KY-McConell (R) by 9.3
ME-Collins (R) by 10
MN- Coleman (R) by 6
MS- Wicker (R) by 5
NH- Shaheen (D) by 14
NM-Udall (D) by 27.3
NC- Dole (R) by 8.5
OR- Smith (R) by 3
TX- Cornyn (R) by 4.5
VA- Warner (D) by 24

Ratings:
Strong Dem (55: 50 D 5 R)
NJ
AK
CO
VA
NM
NH

Lean Dem (56: 51 D 5 R)
LA

Tilt Dem (57: 51 D 6 R)
MS

Tilt GOP (43: 43 R)
TX
OR
MN

Lean GOP (40: 40R)
NC
KY
ME

Strong GOP (37: 37 R)
KS

Taken Off Watch: Kansas
Races To Watch: Oregon, Mississippi & Minnesota

Mississippi is an interesting race. The seat opened when Trent Lott Resigned. Watch the African American Turn out. 42% of Mississippi is black and if they turn out and vote, the Democrats Will do better than they are polling.

Gordon Smith is a Moderate Republican, He has ran adds Praising Obama and has not yet endorsed McCain. Some could argue that he votes with the democrats the majority of the time. this race will stay close. His Chalenger Merleky was ahead for a short time. My guess is that smith will come out the winner but it's any ones game.

Minnesota is Fluctuating. Franken wasn't helped much by the Edwards Affair (Edwards Campaigned with him earlier in the week) but it should have a slim to nil effect. it will fluctuate right up till the end. it's way too early to make any predictions on this race.