OR, KY Primary Results, Editorial: The Kennedy Family

OR & KY split as expected here are the results:
OR
Obama 58%
Clinton 42%
KY
Clinton 64%
Obama 30%
Obama has now clinched the pledged delegate lead and at the moment is the presumptive nominee. He will now be listed in bold.

THE KENNEDY FAMILY
What family has served this nation better than the Kennedy's? What family has sacrificed more for their country than the Kennedy's? who has put themselves in more danger to serve their people than the Kennedy's ? what family has dreamed a better dream than the Kennedy's ?

Over the years three of Joe's four sons have died serving this great nation. Joe Jr. was killed in WWII when his plane was shot down, John Was Murdered as president of the united states, Robert was shot trying to become president. You all know all of this already I'm Sure.

Yesterday I feel Hilary Clinton, in the sickest display yet of her campaign exploited these tragedies for political gain. That is quiet possibly the greatest sin any politician can commit, exploiting someones personal tragedies for political gain. Invoking the RFK assassination into this race is dangerous by any means. Not just Dangerous politically but personally dangerous to any candidate in the race. There is a silent fear to all good Americans that one of these candidates could be assassinated the way RFK was, That the for the same reason that RFK was Murdered in cold blood their candidate or either off the others may face the same fate. and why was RFK killed? to kill the dream that he had, to kill the hope that all Kennedy supporters had of a better America likely for the election of one Richard Nixon. Had RFK survived we would almost positively not be in this place right now. any one who Identifies them self with Robert Kennedy as I do (I call My self a "Robert Kennedy Democrat") should be appalled. any one who has ever seen that dream or any dream quite literally shot dead should be Angry. any one who has ever studied any political assassination in the slightest detail should be sickened, and any one who has heard the now days old news about his last surviving brother should be outraged to say the least.

Ted is now faced with life threatening Cancer. We are faced with the possible tragedy of not just loosing a great man of loosing the dream he had along side his Brothers. needless to say I wish his recovery and wish him all the luck in the world as he goes through this tough road ahead. That being said We Can not let his dream die regardless of his survival. The only tragedy greater than loosing the man is loosing the dream with the man. I was not alive when Either of his brothers were murdered, my age group only knows this dream through him and a few other Kennedy-esq politicians. we need to ensure that the dream will not die with the man, weather he dies today or 40 years from now. Get well, Ted, God Speed.

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I will release my ratings as promised on all four fronts as soon as I finish rating the house.

WV Results, Edwards, Obama & McCain VP picks, KY & OR Final Call

I'd Like to wish Senator Kennedy to get well, gods speed.

Hillary Clinton as expected won West Virginia:
Clinton 67%
Obama 26%
Edwards Ore 7%
this really means nothing because she will not be the nominee.

Edwards Made the second biggest endorsement of this primary season (Second only to the Kennedy Families endorsement of Obama). Edwards Endorsed Obama on Wednesday which
in effect nullified the WV results. The Clinton People are Finally coming to terms with her loss. Edwards has in a sense Ratified Obama as the Nominee.

Obama's VP top 10 VP picks Probably look something like this:
1. John Edwards (D-NC)
2. Kathleen Sabillius (D-KS)
3. Tom Dachel (D-SD)
4. Michal Bloomberg (I-NY)
5. Russ Fiengold (D-WI)
6. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI)
7. Bill Richardson (D-NM)
8. Chris Dodd (D-CT)
9. James Clyburn (D-OH)
10. Chuck Haggle (R-NE)

McCains Probably Looks Like this:
1. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
2.Charlie Christ (R-FL)
3. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)
4. Rudy Guliani (R-NY)
5. Fred Thompson (R-TN)
6. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
7. John Sununu (R-NH)
8. John Boyner (R-OH)
9. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
10. George Pataki (R-NY) / Chuck Haggle (R-NE)

My Final Call for Tuesday are:
OR
Obama 58%
Clinton 42%
KY
Clinton 64%
Obama 36%

I have New Ratings on all three fronts I will release them when I talk about the OR & KY Results. Once Again I hope Senator Kennedy will Get Well, Gods Speed.

Indiana, North Carolina Results, Super Delegates, West Virginia Final Call, Govorners Ratings

Two States had Primaries last week, Indiana and North Carolina. The Media has practically called the nomination for Obama in the wake of these, something I did after Wisconsin on 2/19. Here were the Results:
North Carolina
Obama 58%
Clinton 42%
Indiana
Clinton 51%
Obama 49%

Since these two primaries Obama has taken the lead in super delegates the CNN Numbers show:
Obama 277
Clinton 273
Obama will undoubtedly be the nominee

Despite this Hillary Clinton still holds a huge lead in West Virginia (polls showing her with a 29-46 point lead) My final Call for The primary is:
Clinton 64%
Obama 36%

Gaum Results (who really cares?), IN & NC Final Call

In Gaum there was a primary over the weekend. the delegates will be split 2-2. It was, In raw vote count, the closest election of my life time.
Obama 50% (+7 votes)
Clinton 50%
This will have a very Minimal effect on the outcome of the election.


I am making my final calls right now. my Averages are In IN Obama 44-42 (just the Zogby) In NC Obama 49.3-41.3 (Zogby+Rassmusen+Research 2000) And so here are my Final calls
NC
Obama 56%
Clinton 44%
IN
Obama 51%
Clinton 49%

IN,NC Polls, New Senate Ratings

First things first lets look at the Presidential race:
In Indiana Hillary Clinton Appears to have taken a slight lead over Obama . If she wins she will stay in the race. Obama however still has a weekend to stop her momentum. She is still far behind in NC, Lets take a look at the Rasmussen + Zogby numbers:
NC
Obama 49.5%
Clinton 37%
IN
Clinton 44%
Obama 41.5%
IN will be close Obama should take NC easily

Senate
We have started to see the senate races Begin to become serious. Barring a scandal or two we now know basically what the competitive races will be. Mary Landreu has taken an advantage in Louisiana. Mitch McConell has not yet found major competition but the Dems could bring him down. Here are my Ratings (Pickups in Bold ,Lean and Tossups are ordered based on Likeliness to go Dem, *- Special election):
Safe Democrat
MA
RI
NJ
DE
WV
VA
MI
IA
IL
AR
NM
SD
MT
Lean Democrat
NH
LA
Tossup
CO (Tilt Dem)
AK
MN
MS* (Tilt GOP)
Lean GOP
KY (Reserved)
OR
NC
TX
ME
Safe GOP
ID
WY
WY*
MS
NE
KS
OK
TN
GA
SC
AL

Safe
Dem 52
GOP 37
Lean
Dem 54
GOP 42
Tilt
Dem 55
GOP 43
Pure Tossup 2

Pennsylvania, Presidential Ratings and The state of the Democraric nomination

Clinton Won Pennsylvania as expected but by 9 points a larger margin than we predicted. The results were:
Clinton 54%
Obama 45%
Obama did have a victory in the sense that Hillary is now broke going into May 6th. If Obama wins North Car.(as expected) and Indiana she will probably drop out. My Numbers in the next two are:
N.C.
Obama 51.7%
Clinton 34%
I.N.
Obama 44.75%
Clinton 41.25%

Presidential Ratings:Light Red or Blue = Lean, Dark Red or Blue = Safe, Green = Tossup
I have gone to the two category systam (Lean and Safe). Indiana has now become a tossup, which I was expecting to happen much later. Here are My Ratings(*- Change Vrs. 2004):
Safe (Obama 183 McCain 107)
HI-4
WA-11
CA-55
IL-21
MD-10
DC-3
DE-3
NJ-15
CT-7
RI-4
MA-12
VT-3
ME-4
NY-31


WV-5
KY-8
TN-11
GA-15
AL-9
MS-6
LA-9
AR-6
OK-7
KS-6
AZ-10
WY-3
UT-5
ID-4
Lean (Obama 264 McCain 190)
PA-21
MI-17
WI-10
MN-10
IA-7* CO-7*
OR-7

FL-27
SC-8
SD-3
TX-34
ND-3
NE-5
MT-3
AK-3
Tossup (84 (2004:Bush 80 Kerry 4))
NH-4
OH-20
IN-11
VA-13
NC-15
NM-5
NV-5


The State Of The Democratic Nomination:
Hillary Clinton has no shot of winning states, the Popular vote or the Pledged delegate count. The super delegates will not over turn the will of the people, so unless Obama screws up bad, He will be the nominee.

Pennsylvainia Final Call, New House Predictions

Pennsylvania

Obama has been Moving Up quickly in Pennsylvania. Despite this he has not been able to cut into the lead. thus I am Predicting that Clinton Will Win Tuesday. Here is my Full prediction:
Clinton 51%
Obama 47%
Other 2%
Chris Mathews is saying she needs an 8 point win to stay in the race and it does not look like she will be able to do that. If Obama wins Hillary is Out, But Obama Him self Recognizes that that is Unlikely.

House Predictions
I have decided Not to rate the House races in 2008 and instead to simply predict them Ether Blue or Red. Due to GOP Retirements, Fatigue and scandals the democrats will probably hold the house in 2008. Here are My Predictions
Democratic Pickups
CA-4
WA-8
AZ-1
NM-1
LA-6
IL-10
IL-11
OH-2
OH-16
NJ-3
NJ-7
CT-4
NY-25
NY-26
GOP Pickups
KS-2
AL-5
GA-12
TX-22

The House would be
Democrats 244
Republicans 291